MARKET TIMING BY THE MOON & THE SUN

Summary of
Market Timing
By The Moon & The Sun

David McMinn

Chapter 1 – Introduction

Chapter 2 – The Moon & The Sun

Lunisolar precession is caused by the tidal pull of the Moon and Sun on the Earth’s equatorial bulge. Lunar nutation is superimposed on this process to give the 18.6 year nutation cycle.

The key cycles are the tropical year, tropical month, the nodical year, nodical month and lunar nutation.

Numerous eclipse cycles are important in the 56 year cycle, most notably the Half Saros and Inex. Multiples of these two cycles give the various sub-cycles, including the 56 year lunisolar cycle.

Tropical cycles of the Sun and lunar nodes can be correlated with the timing of financial distress and the 56 year cycle.

Diurnal cycles of the Moon and Sun can be linked to the 56 year cycle via the nutation cycle and the tropical year. These diurnal cycles can never be assessed directly, given the data limitations imposed by week day trading.

Apogee and harmonics are probably very important in the 56 year cycle, although there is no proof to support such a proposition.

Tidal harmonics between the Sun – Earth – Moon offers the best explanation of the 56 year cycle phenomenon.

Chapter 3 – Lunisolar Influences

A lunisolar influence has been shown to occur in a wide range of phenomena. The most precise is the sexual breeding cycles of many animal species. In contrast, only a very weak lunar phase effect has been established for the timing of human births.

The lunar phase effect is not repeatable for a wide range of aberrant human behaviours, which castes doubt on the few positive findings.

Financial markets tend to rise near the new Moon and fall near the full Moon. This was replicated for numerous markets.

Most studies show earthquakes and volcanic eruptions cannot be correlated with lunisolar cycles, casting serious doubt about a Moon – Sun effect in seismic cycles.

Lunar phase cycles can be linked with rainfall patterns, while sunny weather has been shown to influence market performance. A 56 year cycle did not show up in relation to the formation of US hurricanes or intense storms.

Chapter 4 – Annual One Day Rises & Falls

The 1929, 1987 & 1997 October panics all had very strong Moon - Sun similarities for the prior record highs, the October highs, the panics and the recoveries. They also happened on the 7-27 and 7-28 days of the annual lunar calendar.

Lunar phase significance cannot be produced form listings of the biggest one day falls in the DJIA. However, this can be achieved assessing the biggest annual one day rises and falls.

The annual one day falls =>4.50% were most likely to occur roughly between the 1^st quarter – full Moon and the 3^rd quarter – new Moon. Between 1910 and 2000, there was only one exception in 1930. In contrast, the annual one day data for the comparable rises yielded only marginal significance for lunar phase at the .05 level.

Significance also arises for annual one day rises and falls in relation to the ecliptical positions of the Moon and Sun.

Annual one day falls with similar lunar phase tend to have the Moon and Sun in similar ecliptical segments. This was most apparent for autumn falls.

The lunisolar effect is most evident for the biggest annual one day falls, especially for lunar phase.

Chapter 5 – Mathematical Markets

Markets are essentially mathematical in nature and the random walk efficient market theory of modern economics may be rejected outright as having little bearing on cycle reality.

The ratio Pi could play an important role in the 56 year cycle, given that lunisolar cycles involve various angular, ecliptical and diurnal circles. No evidence can be offered to support such a proposal.

The 8.6 year panic cycle was linked by Martin Armstrong to Pi x 1000 solar days and can be related to lunisolar cycles, especially tropical months. The validity of this cycle is unknown, but it remains of great interest.

Phi and the Fibonacci numbers have been associated with the Elliott Wave.

The Spiral Calendar is based on lunar years and the square root of Phi. This technique gives numerous turning points in the markets and is linked to Moon - Sun cycles.

The Delta Phenomenon is based on various tropical cycles of Moon and Sun, as well as the lunar year of 12 synodic months.

Moon - Sun eclipse cycles can be related to Phi and the Fibonacci - Lucas numbers. This offers theoretical support for the use of these factors in financial forecasting via such techniques as the Elliott Wave and the Spiral Calendar.

Benford’s Law shows up in many phenomena, including financial markets. This gives the ratios of the first digit in a sample of non random data. There will be a strong emphasis on the number one as the first digit (30%) through to 9 (4.6%).

Multifractuals give a much better view of market behaviours than modern economic theory. The latter does not account for the extremes in buying and selling and thus has little relevance to the real world.

Chapter 6 – Phi Ratios & Eclipse Cycles

The intervals between major September - October panics takes place in multiples of eclipse cycles plus/minus small integral numbers of synodic months, tropical years and tropical months. The notable exceptions were the 1847, 1907 & 1997 panics, which happened outside the 18/56 year patterns found in the 36 ysc Series 1.

Intervals associated with the AOD falls also tended to occur in integral and half integral numbers of synodic months. However, this only applied to events within the same 9/56 year grids and around the same months.

Inverse Phi ratios show up in financial patterns and applied mainly to those major turns in investor sentiment taking place within the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2. This was due to the presence of Lucas numbers in the 9/56 year patterns.

So little is known about how eclipse cycles function in financial markets. A few examples may be presented, but how the how cycle operates remains a great unknown.

Chapter 7 – Traditional Astrology

There is very little evidence to support traditional astrology, despite a tremendous amount of research undertaken by scientists and astrologers over the past century.

No hard proof can be offered to support a planetary influence in market trends.

The planets do have an impact on the 56 year cycle via the process of planetary precession. However, this is very weak compared with lunisolar precession and therefore it is a question whether such weak forces are detectable in financial patterns. Based on research to date, the answer appears to be no.

Solar and lunar eclipses cannot be correlated with the timing of financial crises, which contradicts traditional astrology. This was apparent despite lunar nodes and eclipse cycles being very important in the 56 year cycle.

Some astrologers are able to achieve respectable forecasting accuracy. This arises even though there is no firm scientific support for financial astrology.

Chapter 8 – Astronomical Planes & Nodes

Gauquelin established links between planetary diurnal cycles and the timing of human births, personality type and attaining success in certain professions later in life. The relevant heavenly body was most likely sited after rising or culmination.

After assessing 6.5 million French marriages for 1976 –97, Castille found that people were more likely to marry if they were born about the same time of year.

Sunspot formation involves latitudinal passage, in which the key factors are the solar equatorial plane and the parallel planes at the same latitude North and South. A similar process may possibly operate in terrestrial cycles, including financial cycles.

The 56 year cycle, sunspot formation and the findings by Gauquelin and Castille are all based on astronomical planes and associated nodes. An overriding feature seems to be where a heavenly body changes its orientation (move from above to below or vice versa) with respect to an astronomic plane. This may simplify astrological theory to a few first principles based on tidal resonance and astronomical planes/nodes.

Chapter 9 - Megalithic Stones

Both Stonehenge and the 56 year panic cycle can be firmly linked to the number 56 and to diurnal cycles of solar and lunar risings and settings.

The number 56 shows up very strongly in the layout of Stonehenge. There are 56 Aubrey holes in a circle surrounding the complex. Additionally, the winter solstice full Moon rises over Stone D in a 56 year cycle – every 19, 19, 18 years.

56 tropical years almost exactly equals 59 nodical years. The number 59 also plays a key role in the layout. 59 holes are to be found in the X and Y circles between the stone structure and the Aubrey holes. There are also 59 blue stones in the bluestone circle in the inner part of the complex.

The numbers showing up in the 56 year cycle are also evident at some of the other megalithic sites. However, so many numbers may be given importance to both the megaliths and the 56 year panic cycle that any meaningful interpretation is impossible.

The culture for building megalithic stones based on lunisolar alignments was probably imported from a more advanced civilisation, probably in the Middle East.

Any connection between the 56 year panic cycle of modern times and Stonehenge is purely tentative and no evidence can be presented to support such a claim.

Chapter 10 – In Summary

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