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THE MOON, THE SUN & THE 9/56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE
Changing mob psychology is hypothesised to form the basis of cycles of financial crises. Such an opinion is not new. Mill (1867) believed that the "mental mood of businessmen tends to run in cycles''. The obvious question arises as to the causal principle precipitating this repetitive cycle of mob psychology - speculative frenzy, crisis, pessimism. It has persisted throughout modern economic history, with people learning very little from the greed and foolishness of the preceding generation. Economic theory has remained severely deficient in explaining cycles of financial distress. This impasse has arisen despite a mountain of research and a multitude of PhDs. Prevailing cycle theory does not recognise the crucial role played by the Sun and Moon in the timing of financial distress. Some background information needs to be outlined on the approach adopted in the text. The Earth’s orbital plane around the Sun is represented by the 360o ecliptical circle, as viewed from Earth. 0 Eo is sited at the spring equinox point, with the abbreviation Eo being used to denote ecliptic longitudinal degrees. This is to differentiate it from angular degrees (angle separating two heavenly factors), which is given as Ao. The use of ecliptic degrees was deemed necessary for simplicity. Everybody is familiar with the 360o of a circle, where as few people know the zodiacal signs and their succession through the zodiac. Additionally, there is no scientific evidence to support the concept of 12 zodiacal signs and their associated symbolism, even though it is one of the most fundamental paradigms in astrology. A glossary has been presented for those unfamiliar with the terms used in this paper. Most importantly, the term ‘node’ is used in astronomy to describe any two points where: * the orbit of a heavenly body cuts an astronomical plane. * two astronomical planes intersect. Another key term is the celestial equator, which is the plane of the Earth’s equator extended out into space onto the sky. LUNISOLAR CYCLES The Sun - Moon reference points in financial trends seem to be where the ecliptic is intersected by: * the plane of the Earth's equator. These two planes cut at the: spring (vernal) equinox point - 0 Eo (0 Aries) & and the autumn equinox point - 180 Eo (0 Libra). As viewed from the northern hemisphere, the Sun passes from below to above the celestial equator at the spring equinox and from above to below at the autumn equinox. *
the plane of the
Moon's orbit around the Earth. (The Moon's orbital plane is inclined
5o to the ecliptic.) The points
where these two planes intersect are called the
Moon's What appears to be so important is the change in orientation of the Sun and Moon relative to the astronomical planes. However, the terms above/below depend on viewing from the northern or southern hemispheres. Therefore it is only reasonable that both points in nodal point pairs are pertinent in cycles of financial distress. The equinox points move clockwise (retrograde) against the background of fixed stars, while the Moon's nodes also move clockwise around the ecliptic circle in the nutation cycle of 18.6 years. These cyclic phenomena arise from the gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon on the Earth’s equatorial bulge. The Earth bulges slightly around the equator with the distance between the centre and equator being 0.3 per cent greater than the distance from the centre to the poles. The plane of the equatorial bulge is tilted in relation to the ecliptic by 23.5o (called the obliquity). Both the Sun and Moon gravitationally pull on the Earth's equatorial bulge. The Moon tugs at this bulge to ally with the Moon's orbital plane, while the Sun pulls it to align with the ecliptic. The combined effect is to try to decrease the angle between the Earth’s equatorial plane and the ecliptic, but the Earth resists such forces as it rotates with angular momentum. These competing forces result in the Earth's spin axis describing a double conical motion (one each for the north and south poles) around the perpendicular (90 Ao) to the ecliptic. The overall impact gives rise to two important astronomical phenomena. Precession of the Equinoxes. The equinox points rotate retrograde (clockwise) very slowly against the background of fixed stars completing a cycle about every 25,800 years. Around 200 BCE, the spring equinox point (0 Eo) was sited in the constellation Aries, but now it is in the early part of the constellation Aquarius. The orientation of the north pole also changes very slowly in relation to the background of fixed stars. Currently the north pole points to Polaris (or Pole Star), but in around 12,000 years the brilliant star Vega will be the new pole star. The precessional movement is not perfectly regular because the Sun and Moon gravitationally pull in different planes and their positions constantly change in relation to each other and the Earth. The Nutation Cycle is caused by a very slight elliptical nodding of the Earth's axis, which is superimposed on the precessional motion due to the pull of the Moon on the Earth. Thus the double cone described previously is in fact a corrugated or wavy cone. This nodding shows up as the north node’s retrograde (clockwise) movement around the ecliptic circle, taking 18.6133 tropical years to complete one cycle of the ecliptic circle from spring equinox to spring equinox. A number of other Sun - Moon cycles are crucial in financial trends and arise in the ecliptical and angular circles. Ecliptical Circle is the basis of three key lunisolar cycles. Positions of the Sun, Moon and lunar nodes are given as ecliptical longitudinal degrees, which are equivalent to angles to the spring equinox point (0 Eo). Tropical Year (or Solar Year) equals 365.2422 days and is the time taken for the Sun to complete one cycle of the ecliptic circle from spring equinox to spring equinox. Tropical Month is the time taken for the Moon to complete one 360o cycle of the ecliptic circle from spring equinox to spring equinox and is equal to 27.3216 days. Nutation Cycle shows up as the Moon’s north node retrograde (clockwise) movement around the ecliptic circle, taking 18.6133 tropical years to complete one cycle. Angular Circle. This gives the respective angles between the Sun, Moon and Moon’s north node - denoted by Ao: Nodical Year (or Eclipse Year) equals 346.6200 days and is the time taken for the Sun to complete one cycle lunar north node to lunar north node. Eclipse year is the astronomically correct term for this cycle, but nodical year has been used in the text because it is more descriptive. Nodical Month (or Draconic Month) is the time taken for the Moon to complete one cycle lunar north node to north node and is equal to 27.2122 days. Synodic Month (or Lunar Month) is the time taken for the Moon to complete one cycle new Moon to new Moon and equals 29.5306 days. It is based on the angle between the Sun and Moon as viewed from Earth. Saros Cycle. Every 223 synodic months (one Saros cycle), the Sun, Moon and the Moon's nodes align in the same relative angles to each other to within a fraction of a degree. The Saros (18.0 tropical years) divided by two gives the Half Saros Cycle. Every 9.0 tropical years, the Moon's mean relative position is the same angle to the lunar north node, with the Sun 180o on the opposite side of the ecliptic circle (see Appendix 1). 56 Year Cycle. On the same date every 56 tropical years, the ecliptical position of the lunar north node moves only 3 Eo clockwise (eg as on July 1: 1761 - NN at 48 Eo; 1817 - 45 Eo; 1873 - 42 Eo; 1929 - 39 Eo; 1985 - 36 Eo). Furthermore, every 56.0 tropical years, the Sun's relative position forms the same angle to the north lunar with the Moon 180o on the opposite side of the ecliptic circle. The two cycles of 9.0 (half Saros) and 56.0 tropical years result in alternating solar/lunar eclipses and full/new moons every 111.5 and 692.5 synodic months respectively (see Appendix 1). The 9 and 56 year cycles are based on the angles 0o and 180o between the Sun, Moon and lunar nodes and repeat to within one degree. Additionally, all lunisolar cycles in Appendix 1 are in integral and half integral numbers, apart from the solar day. The very close alignment of Sun - Moon cycles at the Saros and the 56 year cycle could not arise, if the radii of either the Earth - Sun or Earth - Moon orbits varied slightly from their current mean values. Tidal force is strongly determined by distance between the bodies involved. This implies that tidal effects between the Sun, Earth and Moon play a key role in influencing cycles of financial upheavals. The reasons for the importance of 0o/180o angles in the Saros and 56 year cycle remain unresolved, although it would indicate that the 1st and 2nd harmonics are crucial in understanding how the cycle actually functions. THE LUNAR NODES & THE SUN Nutation Cycle. The ecliptical position of the north node on a particular date correlated perfectly with the 9/36 year sub-cycles. On July 1 for ALL years in the 36 year sub-cycles Series 1, the north node was always sited between 328 and 58 Eo, while for ALL years in Series 2, the north node appeared between 142 and 231 Eo (see Diagram 1). For such patterns to occur by chance would be infinitely small. One would expect an even ecliptical distribution of the north node, if there was no relationship with sub-cycles based on multiples of 9 years.
DIAGRAM 1 NORTH NODE ECLIPTICAL POSITION & THE 36 YEAR SUB-CYCLES As on July 1 - All 44 years in
the 36 ysc (Series 1 & 2) - 1760-2000
For the 1755-1940 period, the placement of the north node can be strongly correlated with the timing of Kindleberger's 30 major crises (see Diagram 2). * 24 crises had the north node in the two quarter segments diagonally opposite in the ecliptic circle - 0 - 90 Eo and 180 - 270 Eo (Significant p < .001). * 17 crises were located with the north node in two diagonally opposite 45o segments - 0 - 45 Eo and 180 - 225 Eo. (Significant p < .001). * No crises were evident when the north node was sited between 255 and 335 Eo; a segment of 80o (Significant p < .01). For Kindleberger's 42 major crisis years
(1760-1987), significance could still be repeated for the north node in
these ecliptical segments discussed previously, but at a lower level (down
to p < .05). In this analysis, one would expect an even distribution of
the north node on the ecliptic if only chance factors were
operating.
Ecliptical position of north node at the time of
all major
crises listed by Kindleberger (Appendix B, 1996) for the period 1755-1940. For years
with no given month, the north node is taken as occurring on July 1. For
crises given as multiple months, the north node is timed mid way between
the first and last crisis month. The concentration of the north node in the segments 0 - 45 Eo & 180 - 225 Eo for the timing of major financial crisis is probably linked with the equinox points 0 Eo/180 Eo, where the celestial equator intersects the ecliptic. As the Moon’s nodes move retrograde (clockwise) around the ecliptic, major financial crises are most likely to happen in the few years prior to the lunar nodes reaching the equinoxes. Sun's Ecliptical Position is hypothesised to have an impact upon financial activity. There is evidence to support this proposal. The greatest one day falls in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Financial Times 30 (FT-30) are most likely to be recorded when the Sun was in the 180 - 240 Eo segment (ie: after the Sun has passed the 180 Eo equinox). DJIA 50 falls 1915-70 20 in 180 - 240 Eo (p
< 10-4). For the DJIA, the biggest one day rises were also most likely to happen when the Sun was in the crucial 180 - 240 Eo segment. DJIA 50 rises 1915-70 20 in 180 - 240 Eo
(p < 10-4). October/November are the featured months when both the biggest one day rises and falls are most likely to be experienced. No seasonal factors are known which could account for this very persistent correlation. LUNISOLAR CYCLES: A KEY Given the alignment (based on 0o and 180o
angles) of several lunisolar cycles at 9 and 56 tropical years, the Moon
was expected to play a key role in the 9/56 year cycle. In Series 1 & 2
of the 36 year sub-cycles (McMinn 1997), S/NN conjunctions (0 Ao) formed
angles to the Moon ranging from 0 to 50 Ao and 170 to 240
Ao (see Diagram
3). This applied in all years between 1760 and 1940.
DIAGRAM 3 MOON ANGLES TO S/NN CONJUNCTIONS & THE 36 YSC 1760 to 2000. All Years in 36 Year Sub-Cycles Series 1 &
2.
The most amazing correlate in Moon Sun finance arises between lunar phase and the timing of major US financial panics. Table 4 shows the relationship between lunar phase and the all DJIA annual one day (AOD) falls over –4.50% in the 1915 - 1999 era. Clearly, lunar phase nearly always showed up between first quarter and full Moon and third quarter and new Moon with only one exception in 1930 (McMinn, 2006). (NB: The annual one day fall is the biggest one day % decline in the DJIA in the year commencing March 1.)
HARMONICS Harmonics are based on the formula - 360o of a circle divided by N, where N is a whole number. Thus, 360o divided by one gives 360 (1st harmonic), 2 gives 180o (2nd harmonic), 3 gives 120o (3rd harmonic), 4 gives 90o (4th harmonic), 5 gives 72.5o (5th harmonic) and so on. In harmonics, regular fluctuations occur around circles of 360o, which correspond to integral divisions of 360. The circles used in traditional astrology are the: * ecliptical circle (equivalent to the zodiacal circle). * angular circle, from the angular degree separation of two points/heavenly bodies. * diurnal circle, based
on the rising, culmination and setting of a heavenly body. Throughout the 9/56 year cycle, the reference points occur where the Sun and Moon change their orientation with respect to an astronomical plane. The Sun moves above/below the celestial equator at the equinoxes and the Moon moves above/below the ecliptic at the lunar nodes. These node point pairs are of prime importance in relation to financial markets, with the 9/56 year cycle able to be broken down into various angles between the Sun, Moon and these nodes. Harmonics could prove a fertile research area for further studies. TRADITIONAL ASTROLOGY Planetary cycles are exceedingly important in traditional astrological theory. Various astrologers have conducted extensive studies on possible planetary influences on business cycles, but the findings were inconclusive and not backed up by the evidence (Dean & Mather, 1977). Williams (1982) believed Jupiter - Saturn - Uranus cycles 'offered a clue' in explaining the crises in Sequences 01, 21 and 41 proposed by Funk (1932). On assessment, these were dismissed as having no relevance to the 9/56 year cycle. A planetary influence upon the 9/56 year cycle could not be established despite numerous hypotheses being tested for significance - planets by ecliptical segment, angles between the planets, planets sited at certain precise ecliptical degrees and so forth. Some positive correlates were produced between eclipses and financial crises. However, these could be reasonably dismissed as artifacts arising from the importance of the lunar nodes in the 9/56 year cycle. (Eclipses can only occur when the Sun and Moon are both near the lunar nodes.) Only the Sun and Moon can be advocated as the prime influence on market timing and the 9/56 year panic cycle. IN CONCLUSION From the findings, the 9/56 year panic cycle is most likely based on angular - ecliptical - diurnal relationships between the Sun and Moon. This conclusion is derived from the following: * Based on the angles 0o and 180o, angles between the Sun, Moon and nodes repeat to within one degree every 9.0 and 56.0 tropical years, the two basic time units associated with the 9/56 year cycle. * Perfect correlations exist between the 36 year sub-cycles and: 1) the ecliptical position of the north node on a specific date of the year. 2) the ecliptical placement of S/NN conjunctions. 3) Moon angles to these S/NN conjunctions. * Major financial crises are most likely to occur when the north node is in the quadrants 0 - 60 Eo and 180 - 240 Eo and least likely in the segment 255 - 335 Eo. Given the key role played by the nodes and the tropical year, diurnal cycles are likely to be very relevant, but could never be assessed from the financial data. Trading is limited to week days and daylight hours, which prevents a full analysis of diurnal cycles in financial patterns. Three astronomical planes appear to be highly significant in the timing of financial crises: * The Ecliptic is the plane the Sun gravitationally pulls on the Earth. The heavenly positions of the Sun, Moon and lunar nodes are also referenced on the ecliptical circle, a factor important in the Tropical Year and Tropical Month. * The Moon's Orbital Plane intersects the ecliptic at the Moon’s north and south nodes. This is the plane the Moon gravitationally pulls on the Earth. * The Celestial Equator cuts the ecliptic at the equinox points. For Sun - Moon diurnal cycles, the reference point is speculated to be located where the Earth’s horizontal plane is intersected by the ecliptic and the Moon’s orbital plane. The 9/56 year cycle may be reduced to various angles between the Sun, Moon and the key reference nodes - the spring equinox and the lunar north node. The angles that seem most important are 0o and 180o, which would suggest the 1st and 2nd harmonics are fundamental to understanding this cycle. These would arise from the tidal effects. Overall, traditional astrology was not applicable to the 9/56 year cycle of financial crises. Even so, some very basic views were valid such as the importance of the Sun and Moon and their associated nodes and astronomical planes. These several variables give rise to very complex cyclical behaviour, which have a major impact on financial trends. Further breakthroughs in cycle theory could open up the possibility of accurate market forecasting years in advance. The obvious question arises - Why are the equinoxes and lunar nodes so relevant in trends of financial crises? Tidal effects between the Sun - Earth - Moon are the favoured options to account for the 56 year panic cycle, because of two key factors: * The gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon on the Earth's equatorial bulge causes the equinox points to move westward against the background of fixed stars (precession) and the Moon's nodes to move around the ecliptical circle relative to the spring equinox point (nutation). * The cycles in Appendix 1 (the Saros and the 56 year cycle) could not arise if the Earth - Sun and Earth - Moon distances varied slightly from their current mean values. The cycles are very finely balanced and distance is one of three key variables in tidal effects. The other two variables are the mass and size of the bodies involved. Thus it may be hypothesised that tidal harmonics involving the Sun, Moon and nodes (equinoxes & lunar nodes) are the causal basis of cycles of financial distress. Some evidence to support this attractive theory has been offered in this paper. The nodes are only hypothetical points in the heavens and geophysics would suggest that they should have no significance. However, proximity to the nodes is where importance lies in the timing of financial distress. The key factor seems to be where the Sun or Moon changes its orientation relative to an astronomical plane (moves from below to above or vice versa). The astronomical planes involved are the ecliptic, the celestial equator, the Moon’s orbital plane and probably the horizontal plane. If Earth - Moon distance was found to be significant in market trends, then apogee would also need to be considered in any Sun - Moon analyses. Assuming such a view holds up to subsequent scrutiny, the complexity of the 9/56 year panic cycle could be reduced to a small number of first principles, thereby nurturing the design of much needed follow up research. A simple, overall theory may be within reach, which would be of tremendous benefit in explaining the cyclic nature of mass psychology and the timing of financial crises. Copyright © 1986-1999. David McMinn. All Rights Reserved.
REFERENCES Culver, R B & Ianna, P A. The
Gemini Syndrome: A Scientific Evaluation of Astrology. Prometheus
Books. 1984.
APPENDIX 1
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