THE 20 YEAR DEATH CYCLE OF AMERICAN PRESIDENTS

"The high office of President has been used to format a plot to destroy the American's freedom and before I leave office I must inform the citizen of his plight." 
John F. Kennedy at Columbia University, 10 days before his assassination. 

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David E McMinn

With one exception since 1840, US presidents who have been elected in years ending in '0' have either been assassinated or have died of natural causes while in office. This 20 year death cycle has been appreciated for many decades. An edition of Ripley's Believe It or Not, published in 1934, noted the coincidental 20 year pattern of presidential deaths between 1840 and 1920, with question marks inserted for the upcoming 1940 entry. This implied that there could be a continuation of the cyclic pattern, which was fulfilled when Franklin Roosevelt was re-elected in 1940 and subsequently died in office in 1945. Based on this 20 year death cycle, several astrologers correctly predicted the death of President John F Kennedy when he was elected in 1960. Similarly, it was expected that President Reagan would also die in office, which almost came to pass with the attempted assassination on March 30, 1981. Even more strangely, two Presidents, who were elected in years ending in ‘0’ -- Lincoln and F D Roosevelt -- both died in their following term after being re-elected in the ‘4’ year. Therefore, the 20 year death cycle anticipated the successful re-election of these presidents to the oval office. George W Bush was elected in 2000 and again in 2004. It will be very interesting to see if the 20 year death cycle is repeated in coming months - this would seem very unlikely. 

Using the Fisher Exact Probability test, the presidential death cycle was shown to yield a significance level of 0.00004, thus confirming that the cycle was very unlikely to occur by chance. A mathematician, Michael Capobianco, applied a more conservative methodology and still produced significance at p < .01.  

The 20 year death cycle appears to be more than just coincidence, especially as only one president since 1840 has died in office and was not elected in a '0' year. The exception was Zachary Taylor, who became president in 1848 and died of a stomach ailment in 1850. The cause of death was suspicious and it was speculated he had been poisoned with arsenic. In 1991, his body was exhumed to investigate this theory, but the findings proved negative. 

Adding to the mystery,  there have been attempted assassinations on various presidents - Andrew Jackson 1835, F D Roosevelt 1933, Harry Truman 1950, Gerald Ford (two separate attempts in Sept 1975) and Ronald Reagan (1981). (John Taylor survived a shipboard explosion in 1844, but this may have been an accident.) Of these attempted assassinations, only Ronald Reagan was elected in a '0' year compared with four successful murders within the 20 year cycle. Additionally, vice presidents only attained the presidency outside the curse on two occasions  - Millard Fillmore after the death of Zachary Taylor in 1850 and Gerald Ford after the resignation of Richard Nixon in 1973 following the Watergate scandal (William S Connery).

Traditional Astrology

Many astrologers attribute the 20 year death cycle to the timing of Jupiter - Saturn conjunctions, when the angles between these two planets is zero degrees on the ecliptical circle. This is not an exact cycle as the conjunction happens about every 19.8 years, while elections take place every 20 years and the average interval between presidential deaths is about 21 years. According to tradition, Jupiter represents optimism, expansion and the ruler, while Saturn symbolises death, pessimism, and contraction. With the conjunction, these planetary influences of Jupiter (the ruler) and Saturn (death) merge. Since 1800, the conjunction of these two planets happened close to the '0' year of presidential elections, thus giving rise to the cycle of presidential deaths.  This configuration has always taken place in an earth sign (Taurus, Virgo, Capricorn) except in 1820 and 1980, when the conjunction occurred in a fire and an air sign respectively (see Table 1).

When an American president was elected under the influence of a Jupiter/Saturn conjunction in an earth sign then he usually died in office. The only exception was in 1800 with the election of Jefferson, who was blessed with a long life and died in 1826 some 17 years after leaving office. There were two presidents who were elected when the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction occurred in fire and air signs and both completed their terms.

1820  Monroe. Conjunction happened in Aries - a fire sign.

1980  Reagan. Conjunction happened in Libra - an air sign.

In 2000, the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction re-occurred in an earth sign (Taurus), indicating that George W Bush could die in office - assuming the death cycle persists. On the positive side, a Jupiter/Saturn conjunction will not happen around a zero year and in an earth sign for another 600 years.  According to astrology,  2000 should effectively mark the end of the presidential death cycle in US history.

Moon - Sun Cycles

The findings on the 56 year Moon-Sun cycles and financial panics have been presented in papers on this web site. Artifact 20 year sub-cycles appear in the timing of major financial upheavals (Financial Crises & The Number 56). Four US presidents were elected in a 20 year cycle that may be linked to the 56 year panic cycle as follows:

Additionally, the basic time unit in the 20 year death cycle was the solar year. Thus, presidential deaths were hypothesised to have something to do with Moon - Sun cycles. Amazingly, correlates can be produced to support such a proposition.

Moon - Sun data was timed at noon (Washington DC) on the day of the presidential death and has been presented in Appendix 1. The ecliptical position of the noon Moon may be out by up to about 7 ecliptical degrees, compared with the Moon at the actual time of death. However, this should not distort the findings in any meaningful way. Grover Cleveland served two terms in 1885-89 and 1893-97 and was considered by history to be the 22nd and 24th president However, his Moon - Sun data was only considered once in this Moon-Sun assessment. A Glossary has been provided for those not familiar with the terms used in this section.

Presidential Deaths Of the first 22 presidents, 12 died in June - July (Sun sited between 70 &127 degrees on the ecliptical circle), which is much higher than the expected frequency of roughly 3.7 assuming and even distribution of deaths over the whole. Even more strangely, three of the first 5 presidents died on July 4 (Independence Day), with two on the same day - July 4, 1826 (John Adams & Thomas Jefferson). The propensity of June-July deaths for early US presidents could be less significant than would first appear, as one would assume that 19th century seasonal death rates had two peaks - one in winter (infectious diseases) and the other in summer (food poisoning and extreme heat events). Even if June - July deaths were 50% higher than for the average two month period in the 19th century, it would still give acceptable significance at p < .01. Additionally, a seasonal effect did not show up for those presidential candidates, who never won an election and who won at least 20 electoral votes. Why early presidents were much more likely to die in June - July remains unknown.

When the first 24 presidents died, 21 had the Moon sited on the ecliptic at between 90 & 295 degrees or a segment of 205 degrees. This compared with the expected frequency of 13.7 (significant p < .01). 

Of the first 24 presidents, the first (George Washington) died in December 1799 and the last (Grover Cleveland) in June 1908, a time period that approximates to 6 nutation cycles of 18.6 years each. Some 17 presidents had the lunar north node sited between 120 & 275 ecliptical degrees, a segment of 155 degrees. In contrast, the expected death frequency was 9.9 (significant p < .01).

When the first 23 presidents died, 17 had Moon - Sun angles (lunar phase) between 205 to 005 angular degrees, a range of 160 degrees. This is in contrast to the expected frequency of 10.2 (significant p < .01).

High  significance could only be produced for about the first 22 to 24 presidents. Significance is weakened or eliminated by using the full sample of 36 presidents who have died to date. This seems most peculiar and cannot be accounted for.

Presidential Births. Of the first 22 presidents, only one (John Quincy Adams) was born in the 5 month period May to September, which again seemed most unusual (significant p < .001 assuming an even distribution of births over the solar year).

No significance (p > .01) could be established for the ecliptical placement of the Moon or lunar north node at the time of US presidential births. A similar situation applied to lunar phase.

Although good correlates may be produced for the earlier presidential deaths, it does not clarify how Moon - Sun cycles could possibly influence the longevity of US presidents or cause presidents to die in office every 20 years. This cannot be explained within scientific paradigms nor within cycles of human mass psychology that influence financial trends (The Moon, The Sun & The Number 56). Clearly more research is necessary in this area, as it remains very puzzlingly. 

Native American Prophecies

There are intriguing stories of an old Indian hex on the American nation, so that every 20 years the 'great chief' dies in office (William S Connery).  This curse has been attributed to Tecumseh, a charismatic leader who tried to unite all the native American tribes in the mid west to protect their lands against the predations of the white race.  Unfortunately, Tecumseh's plan collapsed following the Battle of Tippecanoe in 1811, which marked the turning point  in native American resistance. Following this battle, Tecumseh is supposed to have released prisoners,  with a prophetic message for the leader of the US troops, General William Henry Harrison. "Harrison will die in his office….. I who caused the Sun to darken and Red Men to give up firewater tell you Harrison will die. And after him, every Great Chief chosen every 20 years thereafter will die. And when each one dies, let everyone remember the death of our people."   

Another variation of the story (there are several) was that the curse was pronounced by Tenskwatawa, a Shawnee medicine man also known as "The Prophet". His curse was his revenge for the death of his half brother Tecumsah, who died in the 1813 Battle of The Thames fighting against US troops again led by Harrison. "Harrison will die I tell you", Tenskwatawa said "And after him, every Great Chief chosen every 20 years thereafter will die. And when each one dies, let everyone remember the death of my people." 

This makes a great story, but there is only one quandary - there is no firm historical evidence that either Tecumseh or Tenskwatawa actually uttered those words. There is also the problem as to why presidents should be cursed to die every 20 years rather than some other time frame. Someone probably concocted this story during the 20th century to add a certain of mystery to the presidential death cycle. The fact that this curse was never documented in early US history castes doubt on its validity.

Coincidences Between The Lincoln & Kennedy Assassinations

The similarities between the Lincoln and Kennedy assassinations have been appreciated for decades and have been well recorded. In fact, such speculations first emerged shortly after the shooting of Kennedy in 1963 and were published in the Readers Digest in 1982. These parallels have been outlined as follows.

The Presidents were first elected to Congress 100 years apart (Lincoln in 1846 & Kennedy in 1946).
They were runner-up for vice president 100 years apart (Lincoln in 1856 & Kennedy in 1956).
They were elected president 100 years apart (Lincoln in 1860 & Kennedy 1960).

Both presidents served in the military. Lincoln in the Black Hawk War and Kennedy in World War II. Both were boat captains. Lincoln was captain of the Talisman, a Mississippi river boat, and Kennedy was captain of PT 109.

Lincoln had sons named Robert and Edward. Kennedy had brothers named Robert and Edward.

Both presidents were killed by a bullet that entered the head from behind.

Both presidents were assassinated on a Friday prior to a holiday. Lincoln was shot on Good Friday while Kennedy was shot on the Friday before Thanksgiving.

Each wife had lost a son while living at the White House.

Both were seated next to their wives when shot, neither of the wives were injured. 

Both were in the company of someone else who was injured, but not fatally. Major Rathbone was slashed with a knife and Governor Connally was shot.

Lincoln was killed in Ford's Theater. Kennedy was killed in a Lincoln
convertible manufactured by the Ford Motor Company.

Both the presidents were deeply involved in civil rights for African Americans. Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation went into effect in 1863, while Kennedy's report to Congress on Civil Rights was sent in 1963.

Assassins. Both assassins were Southerners who held extremist views and were murdered before they could be brought to trial. 

Booth shot Lincoln in a theatre and fled to a barn. Lee Harvey Oswald shot 
Kennedy from a warehouse and fled to a theatre (ie: the reverse order of events). 

Both assassins were privates in the military. Booth in the Virginia militia and Oswald in the Marines.

Both assassins were killed by a single shot from a Colt revolver.

Vice Presidents. Both presidents were succeeded by vice-presidents named Johnson, who
were Southern Democrats and former Senators. 

Andrew Johnson was born in 1808, while Lyndon Johnson was born 100 years later in 1908.

Both successors chose not to run for re-election in '68. 

Taken separately, these historical curiosities may be readily dismissed as coincidental and due to a biased selection of the facts (Barbara & David P Mikkelson; Bruce Martin). However, compiling them all together does make one wonder if there is more than 'coincidence' in the similarities between the assassinations of presidents Lincoln & Kennedy. Another problem arises in explaining why the interval of 100 years was so important in comparing the lives of these two presidents. Unfortunately, no comments can be offered to clarify these enigmas.  

Conclusions

Skeptics deride the 20 year death cycle as coincidental, even though only one president since 1840 has completed his term in office and was elected in a '0' year. Coincidence is a distinct possibility, but this is the usual response most researchers adopt when they cannot clarify anomalous findings. All to often 'coincidence' can dismiss vital avenues for further study. Astrologers have also attempted to explain the death cycle in terms of Jupiter - Saturn cycles, which are at best unproven and at worst dubious. Additionally, good correlates can be produced between Moon-Sun cycles and 19th century US presidential deaths, but this does not explain how these luminaries could possibly influence the longevity of US leaders.  The prospect of a old Indian curse may be dismissed outright. It make a great story, but there is no historical evidence to support the claim. 

No option really solves the problem and the 20 year death cycle remains an intriguing mystery. The ultimate test will come with George W and whether he survives his second term in office, as he was elected in 2000 - another '0' year with a Jupiter/Saturn conjunction in an earth sign. As with all predictions only time will tell...........  

Copyright. © 2003-07. David McMinn. All rights reserved.