9/56 YEAR CYCLE: FINANCIAL PANICS

David McMinn

mcminn56@yahoo.com
www.davidmcminn.com

References for early versions of this paper.
McMinn, David,
1986. The 56 Year Cycles & Financial Crises. 15th Conference of Economists. The Economics Society of Australia. Monash University, Melbourne. 18p. Aug 25-29.
McMinn, David, 1993. US Financial Crises & The Number 56. The Australian Technical Analyst Association Newsletter. p 21-25. Sep.
McMinn, David.
1994. Mob Psychology & The Number 56. The Australian Technical Analyst Association Newsletter. p 28-37. Mar.
McMinn, David. 1996. Financial Crises & The Number 56. Cycles. The Foundation For The Study of Cycles. Vol 46, No 1. p 11-17. Aug.



Abstract:
The 9/56 year cycle consists of a grid repeating the intervals 56 years vertically (called sequences) and 9 years horizontally (called subcycles). Since 1760, US and Western European financial panics have clustered with significance in this grid pattern. Seasonality was also observed within the 56 year sequences and within the 18/56 year grids. Artifact subcycles were also apparent within this cycle as shown by the 20 year subcycles. The 9/56 year pattern can be intimately linked to Moon – Sun cycles and thus it is hypothesized that lunisolar tidal harmonics activated financial panics within the 9/56 year grid.

Keywords: 9/56 year cycle, financial panics, seasonality, artifact subcycles,

Introduction
A 56 year panic cycle in US financial activity was first proposed by J M Funk (1932). McMinn (1986, 1993, 1994) expanded upon this concept and presented a 9/56 year cycle in the timing of major US and Western European financial crises over recent centuries. This cycle consists of a grid repeating intervals of 56 years on the vertical (called sequences) and 9 years on the horizontal (called subcycles). Major historic financial crises clustered statistically within this 9/56 year pattern, which may be linked intimately with Moon Sun cycles. Several Moon Sun cycles aligned very closely at 9.0 and 56.0 solar years and thus lunisolar tidal harmonics are hypothesised to activate panic events within the 9/56 year grid.

No definition exists of what constituted a 'major' crisis in economic history. Thus Appendix 1 gives a list by Kindleberger (Appendix B, 1996) of what he considered were 'major' financial crises over recent centuries. This source was chosen given his pre-eminence as an historical economist and because he presented the most comprehensive listing of major historic crises. The list provided an external reference independent of this cycle study. Years in which these major crises occurred have been given in BOLD throughout the text.

The 56 year sequences have been numbered in accordance with McMinn (1993), with 1817, 1873, 1929, 1985 being designated as Sequence 01, 1818, 1874, 1930, 1986 as Sequence 02 and so forth. The full numbering for the 9/56 year cycle has been presented in Appendix 3. In the tables, the year of best fit was taken as the year beginning March 31. The term season was applied to a given period during the solar year, rather than the traditional seasons – spring, summer, autumn and winter. Additionally, Appendix 4 gives the essential background information on the various Moon Sun cycles and the terms used in this paper.

The 56 Year Sequences
Funk (1932) observed three 56 year panic sequences between 1817 and 1930 for the US economy. These have been denoted as Sequences 01, 21 and 41 and were expanded to cover the 1760 to 2010 era. His three sequences are presented as follows

Sq 01

 

1761

US downturn. Ending of the French & Indian War.
(Also British crisis - Jun - Dec).

1817

US recession. Resumption of specie payments in February.
? Listed as an 1817-1818 US crisis by Adams (1936). 

1873

US Black Friday (Sep 19). Jay Cooke & Co failure.
(Also Austrian Black Friday (May 9). Vienna leasing crisis).

1929

US Black Tuesday (Oct 29). After New Era Prosperity.

1985

US$ crisis (Sep 22). G 5 meeting. Plaza Accord.

 

 

Sq 21

 

1781

US deflation. Ending of the Revolutionary War.

1837

US panic (May 10). After Bank Credit Land Boom.
(Also British crisis - Dec 1836).

1893

US panic (May - Jul). National Cordage Co failure. 
US Black Wednesday (Jul 26). (Sobel, 1968).

1949

US recession.

2005

No Crisis

 

 

Sq 41

 

1801

US depression. After Carrying Trade Prosperity.

1857

US panic (Aug 24). Ohio Life Insurance & Trust Co failure.
US banking panic (Oct 14).
(Also British panic - Oct; Continental crises - Nov).

1913

1913-14 US & European war crises.

1969

 US recession.

Astonishingly in the 100 years to 1930, Funk’s three sequences contained 6 years, in which occurred five of the worst panics in US history (1837, 1857, 1873, 1893 and 1929, the anomaly being 1913). Given the highly accurate trend, additional 56 year sequences were postulated to exist in recent centuries. References on US and Western European economic history were gleaned for such patterns with the ensuing sequences being regarded as the most significant.

Sq 03

 

1763

Amsterdam panic (Sep). Ending of Seven Years' War.

1819

US crises (Nov 1818 - Jun 1819).
British crisis.

1875

British crisis (Jun 15). Alexander Collie & Co failed. (Kitchin, 1933). 

1931

Austrian crisis (May 11). Creditanstalt failure.
German crisis (Jul 13). Danatbank failure.
British crisis (Sep 20). Off gold standard.

1987

US Black Monday (Oct 19).
Worldwide stock market panics.

 

 

Sq 05

 

1765

US crisis. Stamp Act passed.

1821

No crisis

1877

1877-78 US 'sharp decline' (Sobel, 1965). Banking fears. Great rail strike.

1933

US banking crisis (Mar 6/9).

1989

Japanese crisis. After 'bubble economy' (Jan 1990).
US Friday 13 stock market panic (Oct 13). 
German stock market panic (Oct 16).

 

 

Sq 12

 

1772

British panic (Jun 25). Ayr Bank failure.
Amsterdam panic (Jan 1773).

1828

French crisis (Dec 1827). Bankruptcies in Alsace.

1884

US panic (May). After railway speculation.

1940

US panic (May). Germany invaded France.

1996

No crisis

 

 

Sq 32

 

1792

British panic (Feb 1793). After canal mania.
US panic (Mar 22/23). William Duer bankruptcy.

1848

French panic (Mar). Year of Revolutions.

1904

French panic (Feb 20).

1960

No crisis.

 

 

Sq 48

 

1808

1807-08 US Embargo Depression.

1864

French panic (Jan). After cotton speculation.
US panic (Apr 16/17) (Sobel, 1968). Civil War.

1920

USA & UK crises. After inflation.

1976

No crisis.

 

 

Sq 50

 

1810

British Great Panic (Jan 1811).

1866

British Black Friday (May 11). Overend Gurney failure.
Italian crisis (May 1). Lira convertibility suspended.

1922

German crisis (Jan 1923). Default on war reparations. 

1978

No crisis.

 

 

Sq 52

 

1812

No crisis.

1868

French crisis (Nov 1867). Credit Mobilier failure.

1924

French franc crisis (Mar 6) (Kindleberger, 1978).

1980

1979-80. US crises. Farmland (1979), US$ (1979), Oil (1980).
After silver mania (Silver Thursday - Mar 27).


The 9/56 Year Grid

The 56 year sequences are interconnected by intervals of 9 years as shown in Table 1. These 9 year sub-cycles operate for comparatively short periods, whereas the 56 year sequences may persist for centuries. Kindleberger (Appendix B, 1996) listed some 30 major financial panics for the USA & Western Europe between 1760 and 1940 (see Appendix 1), of which 16 appeared in the 9/56 year grid in Table 1 (significant p < .001). For the period 1940-1996, numerous international currency crises were given in Kindleberger’s listing, only two of which happened within the 9/56 year configuration. Even including these currency speculations, 21 of Kindleberger’s 44 crisis years (1760-1996) fell in the 9/56 year pattern, which was still significant (p < .01).

Table 1
9/56 YEAR CYCLE: FINANCIAL PANICS 1760-1996
Year beginning March 1

Sq
52

Sq 05

Sq
14

Sq
23

Sq 32

Sq 41

Sq 50

Sq 03

Sq 12

Sq 21

Sq
30

Sq
39

Sq 48

Sq 01

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1761

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1763

1772

1781

1790

1799

1808

1817

 

1765

1774

1783

1792

1801

1810

1819

1828

1837

1846

1855

1864

1873

1812

1821

1830

1839

1848

1857

1866

1875

1884

1893

1902

1911

1920

1929

1868

1877

1886

1895

1904

1913

1922

1931

1940

1949

1958

1967

1976

1985

1924

1933

1942

1951

1960

1969

1978

1987

1996

2005

2014

 

 

 

1980

1989

1998

2007

2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The 56 year sequences are separated by an interval of 9 years.
Years in bold contained major financial panics and crises listed by Kindleberger (Appendix B, 1996).
Source: McMinn (1993, 1994, 1996).


The main discrepancy occurs with the currency crises of the post war era. How well distress in currency markets correlates with the 9/56 year grid is debatable. Additional research may show that major financial crises align more readily with the 9/56 year cycle than do international currency crises.

The layout in Table 1 contained most of the major financial disasters in US history – 1792, 1819, 1837, 1857, 1873, 1884, 1893, 1920, 1929, 1931, 1933, 1987, 1998 and 2007. Listings of US & Western European crises by other economists also fell selectively in the same 9/56 year grid (see Appendix 2). Such findings offered further support for a 9/56 year panic cycle. Amazingly, this cycle has persisted since at least the mid-18th century, despite the radical changes in technology, financial complexity, economic structures and so forth.

Seasonality
Within the 56 year sequences, crises often take place at around the same tine of the year, a trend that held up reasonably well over recent centuries. Additional examples have been given by McMinn (1995). The crisis month is given wherever possible in the text.

Sq 01 - 1873 (USA – Sep), 1929 (USA – Oct), 1985 (US$ - Sep).

Sq 03 - 1763 (Continent - Sep), 1931 (UK - Sep), 1987 (World - Oct).
            Also 1819 (USA - Apr/May), 1875 (Britain - Jun), 1931 (Austria -   May).

Sq 05 - No trend.

Sq 09 - 1713 (Britain - Jan - Apr 1714), 1769 (France - Feb 1770), 1825 (Britain - Dec), 1881 (France - Jan 1882), 1993 (USA - Feb 1994).

Sq 12 - 1716 (Britain - Jan - Mar 1717), 1772 (Amsterdam - Jan 1773).
            Also 1772 (British - Jun), 1884 (USA - May), 1940 (USA - May).

Sq 21 - 1837 (USA – May 10), 1893 (USA – Jul 26).

Sq 32 - 1792 (USA – Mar 22), 1848 (France - Mar), 1904 (France – Feb).

Sq 41 - 1745 (Britain - Dec), 1857 (USA - Oct; Britain - Oct; Continent - Nov).

Sq 48 - Insufficient data.

Sq 50 - 1810 (Britain - Dec 1811), 1922 (Germany - Jan 1923).

Sq 52 - 1924 (French franc crisis - Mar), 1980 (USA - Mar).

For some sequences, available data was insufficient to indicate possible trends.

Seasonality can also arise within the 9/56 year grids. Kindleberger's major crises in the 18/56 year subcycles (see Grid A Table 2) occurred in the 7 months between May and November, with an emphasis on May and September/October. The only exception was the US panic in 1819, which was given as a range by Kindleberger (1996) (Nov 1818 - Jun 1819). Calomiris & Gorton (1991) gave April/ May 1819 as the ‘height of panic’.

In Grid B Table 2, all crises happened in the 5 months March to July, as well as January – February of the following year. There were no anomalies.

Table 2
18/56 YEAR CYCLE: SEASONALITY OF FINANCIAL PANICS
Year beginning March 1

Grid A

Sq 41

 

Sq 03

 

Sq 21

 

Sq 39

 

Sq 01

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1761

 

 

1763

+18

1781

+18

1799

+18

1817

1801

+18

1819

+18

1837

+18

1855

+18

1873

1857

+18

1875

+18

1893

+18

1911

+18

1929

1913

+18

1931

+18

1949

+18

1967

+18

1985

1969

+18

1987

+18

2005

 

 

 

 

Grid B

Sq 32

 

Sq 50

 

Sq 12

 

Sq 30

 

Sq 48

 

 

 

 

1772

+18

1790

+18

1808

1792

+18

1810

+18

1828

+18

1846

+18

1864

1848

+18

1866

+18

1884

+18

1902

+18

1920

1904

+18

1922

+18

1940

+18

1958

+18

1976

1960

+18

1978

+18

1996

+18

2014

 

 

2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Years in bold contained major financial panics and crises listed by Kindleberger (Appendix B, 1996).
Source: McMinn (1993, 1994, 1996).


Artifact Subcycles

Numerous other patterns can be generated from the grids based on intervals of 56 years and multiples of 9 years. These included subcycles of 20 years, 47 years, 65 years and so forth. Because they were derived from the 9/56 year cycle, they have been described as ‘artifact’ sub-cycles (McMinn, 2002). The following only discusses the 20 year sub-cycles, which are the most obvious subcycles in economic history and were first observed by Funk (1932).

20 year sub-cycles are to be found between Funk's Sequences 01, 21, 41 on the diagonals of the 36 year sub-cycles (see Table 3).
 

Table 3
36/56 YEAR CYCLE: FINANCIAL PANICS 1760-1996
Year beginning March 1

Sq 05

 

Sq 41

 

Sq 21

 

Sq 01

 

 

 

 

 

 

1761

 

 

 

 

1781

+ 36

1817

1765

+ 36

1801

+ 36

1837

+ 36

1873

1821

+ 36

1857

+ 36

1893

+ 36

1929

1877

+ 36

1913

+ 36

1949

+ 36

1985

1933

+ 36

1969

+ 36

2005

 

 

1989

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
The 36/56 year grid may be reconstructed to give 20 year sub-cycles (see Table 4).

Table 4
20/56 YEAR CYCLE: FINANCIAL PANICS 1760-1996
Year beginning March 1

Sq 01

 

Sq 21

 

Sq 41

 

Sq05

1761

+ 20

1781

+ 20

1801

+ 20

1821

1817

+ 20

1837

+ 20

1857

+ 20

1877

1873

+ 20

1893

+ 20

1913

+ 20

1933

1929

+ 20

1949

+ 20

1969

+ 20

1989

1985

+ 20

2005

 

 

 

 

Other Phenomena
Given the favourable findings for financial panics, a 9/56 year effect was hypothesised to arise in the timing of other phenomena. Remarkably 9/56 year correlates were established for earthquakes (McMinn, 2011a, 2011b, 2011d), Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes (McMinn, 2011c) and volcanoes (McMinn, 2011d, McMinn, 2012).

Discussion and Conclusions
The obvious question emerges as to what causes the 9/56 year effect, especially as it appears so strongly in financial patterns. Excellent Moon Sun correlates can be produced with any events that cluster within the 9/56 year grid. The lunar ascending node will be sited in two segments approximately 180 degrees opposite on the ecliptic circle, WITH NO EXCEPTIONS (1st and 2nd harmonics). All events in a particular 56 year sequence have the lunar ascending node sited in a narrow sector of the ecliptic circle WITH NO EXCEPTIONS (1st harmonic). For events occurring at a similar time of year and within the 9/56 year grid, the apogee point will be found in three ecliptic segments 120 degrees apart WITH NO EXCEPTIONS (3rd harmonic). Any events happening around the same time of year and in the same 9 year subcycle will have apogee in the same sector of the ecliptic WITH NO EXCEPTIONS (1st harmonic). These properties of the 9/56 year grid arise from the very close alignments of several lunisolar cycles at 9.0 and 56.0 solar years (see Appendix 4). Presumably lunisolar tidal harmonics triggered critical events, as the Moon, Sun, ascending node and apogee were prime factors in terrestrial tides. Many studies have supported a lunar phase effect in stock market activity (Dichev & Janes 2003; Yuan et al, 2006). It is not a question of whether the Moon and Sun influence investor trading, but how strong is the effect. From the 9/56 year cycle, the lunisolar influence may be far greater than previously considered possible

How lunisolar cycles activated critical events remained a mystery. The Moon and Sun are hypothesized influencing mass physiological cycles of the general population, which determine the prevailing collective mood and thus financial outcomes. Hormone levels of animals and humans have been shown to fluctuate over the lunar month (Endres Schaad, 2002; Zimecki, 2006). Cajochen et al (2013) established that humans achieve 30% less deep sleep during the full Moon, which presumably would affect human behavior. Various studies have also linked hormone levels to market trading success (Chen et al, 2005; Coates & Hebert, 2008; Coates et al, 2009). Anyone who is able to crack the Moon Sun effect will be able to make accurate market forecasts years in advance. Such information will probably never be published given the potential profits to be made.     

What can be stated with a high degree of confidence is that major US and Western European financial crises happen preferentially within the 9/56 year grid. The crises also often occur at around the same time of year within a given 56 year sequence. The 9/56 year cycle is complex as many integral numbers (based on the solar year) may be given significance.

The 9/56 year tidal effect is hypothesized to arise from the varying angles between the Moon, Sun, lunar ascending node, apogee and the spring equinox point. Diurnal cycles may also be relevant, but they have not been considered in this paper. Lunisolar tidal harmonics are the best options for further study. All too often researchers undertake studies testing only one Moon Sun factor (in academic finance this has always been lunar phase). Unfortunately, the real situation is far more complicated.

If the Moon Sun mathematics can ever be deciphered, accurate predictions could be given when financial upheavals were most likely to occur. However, current understanding of the 9/56 year effect remained extremely limited. Hopefully this paper will assist in the design of much needed follow up research.


References
Adams, A B.
1936. Analyses of Business Cycles. McGraw - Hill. 232p.
Calomiris, C W & Gorton, Gary.
1991. The Origin of Banking Panics. Paper in Financial Markets & Financial Crises. Edited by Hubbard, R G. The University of Chicago Press.
Dichev, Ilia & Janes, Troy.
2003. Lunar Cycle Effects In Stock Returns. Working paper. The Journal of Private Equity.
6 (4): p 8–29.
Encyclopedia Americana.
1995. Grolier. Vol 5, p 46-47 & Vol 21, p 358.
Funk, J M. 1933.
The 56 Year Cycle in American Business Activity. Ottawa, IL.
Kindleberger, C P,
1996, Manias, Panics & Crashes. John Wiley & Sons. 263p.
Kitchin, J M.
1933
. Trade Cycles Chart. Published by The Times Annual Financial & Commercial Review. 1920, 1924, 1930. Revised chart to 1933 presented in Gold. A reprint of The Special Number of The Times. June 20, 1933. Times Publishing Co Ltd.
McMinn, David,
1986, The 56 Year Cycles & Financial Crises. 15th Conference of Economists. The Economics Society of Australia. Monash University, Melbourne. 18p. Aug 25-29.
McMinn, David, 1993. US Financial Crises & The Number 56. The Australian Technical Analyst Association Newsletter. p 21-25. September.
McMinn, David.
1994. Mob Psychology & The Number 56. The Australian Technical Analyst Association Newsletter. p 28-37. March.
McMinn, David.
1995. Financial Crises & The Number 56. Twin Palms Publishing. 124p.
McMinn, David.
1996. Financial Crises & The Number 56. Cycles. The Foundation For The Study of Cycles. p 11-17. Vol 46, No 1. Aug.

McMinn, David
2002. Market Timing By The Number 56. Twin Palms Publishing. 134p.
McMinn, David,
2006. Market Timing by The Moon & The Sun. Twin Palms Publishing. 163p.
McMinn, David,
2011a. 9/56 Year Cycle: Californian Earthquakes. New Concepts In Global Tectonics Newsletter. No 58. p 33-44. March.
McMinn, David,
2011b. 9/56 Year Cycle: Record Earthquakes. New Concepts In Global Tectonics Newsletter. No 59. p 88-104. June.
McMinn, David,
2011c, 9/56 Year Cycle: Hurricanes. New Concepts In Global Tectonics Newsletter. No 59. p 105-111. June.
McMinn, David.
2011d. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in Selected Countries. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter. No 60. p 9-37. Sep.
McMinn, David.
2012. 9/56 Year Cycle: World Mega Volcanic Eruptions. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter. No 64. p 7-18. Sep.
Sobel, Robert. 
1965. The Big Board: A History of The New York Stock Market. Free Press.
Sobel, Robert. 
1968. Panic on Wall Street: A History of America’s Financial Disasters. Macmillan.
Yuan, Kathy et al. 2006. Are Investors Moonstruck? Lunar Phases and Stock Returns. Journal of Empirical Finance, Volume 13, Issue 1, Jan. p 1-23.

Appendix 1
MAJOR FINANCIAL CRISES - KINDLEBERGER (Appendix B, 1996).

1618-23

Holy Roman Empire. SP - Feb 1622. C - Feb 1622. Coin debasement.

1636-37

Dutch Republic. SP - Feb 1637. C - Feb 1637. After tulip mania.

1720

Britain. South Sea Bubble. SP - Apr 1720. C - Sep 1720
France. Mississippi Bubble. SP - Sep 1719. C - May 1720.

1763

Amsterdam. SP - Jan 1763. C - Sep 1763. End of Seven Years’ War.

1772

Britain. C – Jun 1772. Amsterdam. SP - Jun 1772. C - Jan 1773.

1793

Britain. SP - Nov 1792. C - Feb 1793. After canal mania.

1797

Britain. SP - 1796. C - Feb-Jun 1797.

1799

Hamburg. SP - 1799. C - Aug-Nov 1799.

1810

Britain. SP - 1809. C - Jan 1811.

1815-16

Britain. SP - 1815. C - 1816.

1819

USA. SP - Aug 1818. C - Nov 1818-Jun 1819.
Britain. SP - Dec 1818. C - None.

1825

Britain. SP - Early 1825. C - Dec 1825.

1828

France. SP - MNG. C - Dec 1827.

1836

Britain. SP – Apr 1836. C - Dec 1836.

1837

USA. SP - Nov 1836. C - Sep. (error - May correct ?).

1838

France. SP – Nov 1836. C - Jun 1837. (error - Jun 1838 correct ?)

1847

Britain. SP - Jan 1847. C - Oct. After railway mania.

1848

Continent. SP - Mar - Apr 1848. C - Mar 1848.

1857

USA. SP - Late 1856. C - Aug 1857.
Britain. SP - Late 1856. SP - Oct 1857.
Continent. SP - March 1857. C - Nov 1857.

1864

France. SP - 1863. C - Jan 1864.

1866

Britain/Italy. SP - Jul 1865. C - May 1866

1873

Germany/Austria. SP - Autumn 1872, C - May 1873.
USA. SP - March 1873. C - Sep 1873.

1882

France. SP - Dec 1881, C - Jan 1882. Union Generale failure.

1890

Britain. SP - Aug 1890. C – Nov 1890. Baring crisis.

1893

USA. SP - Dec 1892. C - May 1893. Australia SP - . C – May.

1907

USA. SP - Early 1907. C - Oct 1907.
France/Italy. SP - Mar 1906. C - Aug 1907.

1920-21

USA/ UK. SP - Summer 1920. C - Spring 1921.

1929

1929 USA. SP - Sep. C - Oct 29. Black Tuesday.

1931-33

1931 Austria. C - May. Germany. C - Jun. UK. C - Sep. Japan. C – Dec.
1933 USA. C - March. Bank holiday.

1950’s &

Currency speculations: France 1958, Canada 1962, Italy 1963,

1960’s

Britain 1964, France 1968, US$ 1973.

1974-75

Worldwide. SP - 1973. C - 1974.

1979-82

USA crises: SP - 1979. Farmland (C - 1979), US$ (C - 1979), Oil (C - 1980), Third world debt (C - 1982).

1982-87

USA crises: US$ (SP - 1985), Real Estate (SP - 1987), Stocks (SP - 1987, C - Oct 1987).

1990

Japanese panic. SP – Dec. C - Jan.

Abbreviations: SP- Speculative peak. C- Crisis/Panic. MNG- Month not given.

 

Appendix 2
THE 9/56 YEAR CYCLE AND LISTINGS OF FINANCIAL CRISES
Year beginning March  1

Source

Era

Total

Appearing in Table 1

Probability

Kindleberger (1996)

1760-1940

30

16

p < .001

1760-1996

44

21

p < .01

Kitchin (1933)

1796-1933

38

16

p < .05

Adams (1936)

1763-1933

31

15

p < .01

Encyclopedia
Americana (1995)

1672-1949

31

16

p < .001

Years *asterisked below appeared in Table 1.
Sources. Kindleberger (Appendix B 1996).
1760-1996. 1763*, 1772*, 1793 (Jan)*, 1797, 1799*, 1811 (Jan)*, 1815-1816, 1819*, 1825, 1828, 1836-1837*, 1838, 1847-1848*, 1857*, 1864 (Jan),  1866*, 1873*, 1882 (Jan), 1890, 1893*, 1907, 1920*-1921, 1929*, 1931*-1932-1933*, 1958*, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1968, 1973, 1974-1975, 1979, 1980*, 1982, 1985*, 1987*, 1990 (Jan)* .
Adams (1936).
US & Wn European crises 1760-1933: 1763*, 1772*, 1783*, 1793 (Jan)*, 1811 (Jan)*, 1817*-1818, 1825, 1837*, 1839*, 1847, 1857*, 1860, 1866*, 1873*, 1882 (Jan), 1883, 1889-1890, 1893*, 1900, 1903, 1907, 1910, 1914, 1920*, 1929*-1930-1931*, 1932-1933*.
Encyclopedia Americana (1995). Vol 21 p 358. US & Wn European crises 1672-1932: 1672 (Jan)*, 1692 (error - 1696* correct?), 1720, 1763*, 1793* (Jan 1793), 1825, 1836-1837*, 1847, 1857*, 1866*, 1869, 1873*, 1882 (Jan), 1884*, 1889-1890, 1900, 1904*, 1907, 1914, 1920*, 1929*-1930-1931*-1932.
Vol 5, p 46-47. US crises 1837-1949: 1837*, 1873*, 1882, 1883, 1884*, 1893*, 1920*, 1929*-1930-1931*-1932-1933*, 1937, 1946, 1949*.
Kitchin (1933). Major US/Wn European crises 1796-1933: 1796, 1801*, 1810*, 1818, 1825, 1836, 1847, 1857*, 1866*, 1873*, 1881 (Jan 1882),
1890, 1900, 1907, 1913*, 1920*, 1929*-1930-1931*-1932-1933*.
Minor US/Wn European crises 1799-1914: 1799*, 1805, 1814, 1831, 1839*, 1845, 1854, 1860-1861, 1863-1864*, 1870, 1875*, 1878, 1884*, 1893*, 1914.


Appendix 
3

NUMBERING THE 56 YEAR SEQUENCES

McMinn (1993) numbered the 56 year sequences by denoting Sequence 01 as 1761, 1817, 1873, 1929 1985, Sequence 02 as 1762, 1817, 1873, 1929, 1986 and so forth. The complete numbering for the 9/56 year grid is shown in Table A.

Table A Appendix 3
THE COMPLETE 9/56 YEAR CYCLE – 1760-2012

Sq
52

Sq
05

Sq
14

Sq
23

Sq
32

Sq
41

Sq
50

Sq
03

Sq
12

Sq
21

Sq
30

Sq
39

Sq
48

Sq
01

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1761

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1763

1772

1781

1790

1799

1808

1817

 

1765

1774

1783

1792

1801

1810

1819

1828

1837

1846

1855

1864

1873

1812

1821

1830

1839

1848

1857

1866

1875

1884

1893

1902

1911

1920

1929

1868

1877

1886

1895

1904

1913

1922

1931

1940

1949

1958

1967

1976

1985

1924

1933

1942

1951

1960

1969

1978

1987

1996

2055

2014

 

 

 

1980

1989

1998

2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sq
10

Sq
19

Sq
28

Sq
37

Sq
46

Sq
55

Sq
08

Sq
17

Sq
26

Sq
35

Sq
44

Sq
53

Sq
06

Sq
15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1766

1775

 

 

 

 

 

 

1768

1777

1786

1795

1804

1813

1822

1831

1770

1779

1788

1797

1806

1815

1824

1833

1842

1851

1860

1869

1878

1887

1826

1835

1844

1853

1862

1871

1880

1889

1898

1907

1916

1925

1934

1943

1882

1891

1900

1909

1918

1927

1936

1945

1954

1963

1972

1981

1990

1999

1938

1947

1956

1965

1974

1983

1992

2001

2010

 

 

 

 

 

1994

2003

2012

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sq
24

Sq
33

Sq
42

Sq
51

Sq
04

Sq
13

Sq
22

Sq
31

Sq
40

Sq
49

Sq
02

Sq
11

Sq
20

Sq
29

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1762

1771

1780

1789

 

 

 

1755

1764

1773

1782

1791

1800

1809

1818

1827

1836

1845

1784

1793

1802

1811

1820

1829

1838

1847

1856

1865

1874

1883

1892

1901

1840

1849

1858

1867

1876

1885

1894

1903

1912

1921

1930

1939

1948

1957

1896

1905

1914

1923

1932

1941

1950

1959

1968

1977

1986

1995

2004

 

1952

1961

1970

1979

1988

1997

2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sq
38

Sq
47

Sq
56

Sq
09

Sq
18

Sq
27

Sq
36

Sq
45

Sq
54

Sq
07

Sq
16

Sq
25

Sq
34

Sq
43

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1767

1776

1785

1794

1803

 

 

1760

1769

1778

1787

1796

1805

1814

1823

1832

1841

1850

1859

1798

1807

1816

1825

1834

1843

1852

1861

1870

1879

1888

1897

1906

1915

1854

1863

1872

1881

1890

1899

1908

1917

1926

1935

1944

1953

1962

1971

1910

1919

1928

1937

1946

1955

1964

1973

1982

1991

2000

2009

2018

 

1966

1975

1984

1993

2002

2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Appendix 4

MOON SUN BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Apogee          
Apogee is the point in the lunar orbit, where the Moon is the greatest distance from Earth, while perigee is the least distance. In the lunar apse cycle, the apogee – perigee axis (apsides) rotates counter clockwise around the ecliptic circle, with apogee completing one cycle from spring equinox to spring equinox every 8.8474 tropical years. The apsides is very important in oceanic tides on Earth. When the full/new Moon is at apogee, the amplitude of tides in New York Harbor is 50% lower than when the full/new Moon is at perigee. Apogee could be expected to play a key role in any Moon Sun tidal effect.

9.0 divided by the 8.8474 year apse cycle yielded 1.02, while 56.0 divided by the apse cycle gave 6.33 (6
plus one third). Thus, every 9.0 years apogee will be sited about 6 degrees further anticlockwise on the ecliptic circle. Every 56.0 years, apogee will be located 120 degrees further anticlockwise on the ecliptic circle. For events occurring around the same time of year in the 9/56 year grid, apogee is always located in three segments approximately 120 degrees apart on the ecliptic circle. For example, Table A gives the apogee position as on July 1 of those years in a 9/56 year grid. Apogee was always located in three segments 120 degrees apart 335 – 015 Eo; 095 – 135 Eo and 215 – 250 Eo (3rd harmonic).

Table A Appendix 4
9/56 YEAR CYCLE & THE POSITION OF APOGEE
Ecliptic Degree of Apogee on July 1

Sq 32

Sq 41

Sq 50

Sq 03

Sq 12

Sq 21

 

 

 

1763
000

1772
007

1781
013

1792
100

1801
106

1810
113

1819
119

1828
126

1837
131

1848
219

1857
225

1866
231

1875
237

1884
244

1893
250

1904
337

1913
344

1922
350

1931
356

1940
002

1949
008

1960
096

1969
102

1978
108

1987
115

1996
121

2005
127

The 56 year sequences are separated by an interval of 9 years.

Equinoxes
These imaginary points are located where the plane of the Earth’s equator projected out onto the sky (celestial equator) cuts the plane of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun (ecliptic). The vernal or spring equinox (000 E°) occurs around March 20 and is sited where the Sun crosses the celestial equator from south to north. The autumnal equinox (180 E°) happens around September 22 and is located where the Sun crosses the celestial equator from north to south.

Lunar Ascending Node  
The lunar nodes are sited, where the plane of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun (the ecliptic) is cut by the plane of the Moon’s orbit around the Earth. The ascending (north) node is where the Moon crosses the ecliptic from south to north, whereas the descending (south) node is where the Moon crosses from north to south. In the lunar nutation cycle, it takes 18.62 years for the ascending node to complete one cycle from spring equinox to spring equinox.           

The ecliptic position of the lunar ascending node in a 9/56 year grid is presented in Table B. On July 1, this point is always found in two segments approximately 180 degrees apart in the ecliptic circle (1st and 2nd harmonics). In any particular 56 year sequence, the lunar node is always found in a narrow sector of the ecliptic circle (1st harmonic).

Table B Appendix 4
9/56 YEAR CYCLE &
THE POSITION OF THE LUNAR ASCENDING NODE
Ecliptic Degree of Lunar Ascending Node on July 1

Sq 32

Sq 41

Sq 50

Sq 03

Sq 12

Sq 21

 

 

 

1763
019

1772
205

1781
031

1792
178

1801
004

1810
190

1819
016

1828
202

1837
028

1848
175

1857
001

1866
187

1875
013

1884
199

1893
025

1904
172

1913
358

1922
184

1931
010

1940
196

1949
022

1960
169

1969
355

1978
181

1987
007

1996
193

2005
019

The 56 year sequences are separated by an interval of 9 years.


Moon Sun Cycles
.
The 9/56 year effect arises due to a very close alignment of several lunisolar cycles at 9.0 and 56.0 solar years (see Table C). NB: The synodic month (or lunar month) is the time taken for the Moon and Sun to complete one cycle new Moon to new Moon and is the basic time unit in the cycles discussed in this appendix.

Relative angles between the Moon, Sun, ascending node and apogee repeat very closely every 223 synodic months (or one 18.0 year cycle). These angles will also recur in similar ecliptic positions - plus about 11 degrees anticlockwise on the ecliptic circle every 223 synodic months. This cycle is called the Saros and was originally discovered by the ancient Babylonians.

223 synodic months divided by two gives the Half Saros of 111.5 synodic months. Every 9.0 tropical years, the Moon repeats the same angle to the ascending node, with the Sun 180 degrees on the opposite side of the angular circle. The apogee - Sun angle is similar, while the Moon - apogee angle changes in multiples of 60 degrees.

On the same date every 56 years, the lunar ascending node is located a further 3 E° clockwise on the ecliptic circle (eg: as on July 1: 1761 at 48 E°; 1817 - 45 E°; 1873 - 42 E°; 1929 - 39 E°; 1985 - 36 E°). This reflects a close alignment between the 18.6 year lunar nutation cycle and the solar year. Every 692.5 synodic months (or one 56.0 year cycle), the Sun forms the same angle to the ascending node with the Moon 180 degrees on the opposite side of the angular circle. The relative angles of apogee to the Moon, Sun and ascending node change in multiples of 60 degrees.

Table C Appendix 4
9 & 56 YEAR LUNISOLAR CYCLES

18.0 Year Saros

Days

Years

Lunisolar cycles

6,574.36

18.00

18.0 Tropical Years

6,585.78

18.03

19.0 Nodical Years

6,585.32

18.03

223.0 Synodic Months (Saros cycle)

6,584.51

18.03

241.0 Tropical Months

6,585.35

18.03

242.0 Nodical Months

6,585.55

18.03

239.0 Apogee Months

9.0 Year Half Saros

Days

Years

Lunisolar Cycles

3,287.18

9.00

9.0 Tropical Years

3,292.89

9.02

9.5 Nodical Years

3,292.66

9.02

111.5 Synodic Months (Half Saros cycle)

3,292.26

9.01

120.5 Tropical Months

3,292.68

9.02

121.0 Nodical Months

3,292.77

9.02

119.5 Apogee Months

56.0 Year Cycle

20,453.44

56.00

56.0 Tropical Years

20,450.58

55.99

59.0 Nodical Years

20,449.94

55.99

692.5 Synodic Months (56 Year Cycle)

20,450.23

55.99

748.5 Tropical Months

20,449.97

55.99

751.5 Nodical Months

20,450.06

55.99

742.17 Apogee Months

Synodic Month (or Lunar Month) is the interval between successive new Moons and is equal to 29.5306 days.
Tropical Year (or Solar Year) is the time taken for the Sun to complete one cycle of the ecliptic from spring equinox to spring equinox and is equal to 365.2422 days.
Tropical Month is the time taken for the Moon to complete one cycle of the ecliptic from spring equinox to spring equinox and is equal to 27.3216 days.
Nodical Month (or Draconic Month) is the time taken for the Moon to complete one cycle from ascending node to ascending node and is equal to 27.2122 days.
Nodical Year (or Eclipse Year) is the time taken for the Sun to complete one cycle from ascending node to ascending node and is equal to 346.6201 days.
Apogee Month (or Anomalistic Month) is the time taken for the Moon to complete one cycle from apogee to apogee and is equal to 27.5546 days.
Source: McMinn, 1995.

 

These cycles of 111.5 and 692.5 synodic months repeat the angles of 0 and 180 degrees between the Moon, Sun and ascending node very closely. Angles involving apogee repeat in multiples of about 60 degrees. Thus, any events clustering in a 9/56 year grid will always have the lunar ascending node in two sectors of the ecliptic approximately 180 degrees apart. Any events in a particular 56 year sequence will have the lunar ascending node in a narrow sector of the ecliptic. If the events occur around the same time of year and in the 9/56 year grid, then apogee will always be sited in three ecliptic sectors 120 degrees apart. If events occurred around the same time of year and in a particular 9 year subcycle, they will have apogee in one sector of the ecliptic circle.