9/56 YEAR CYCLE: FINANCIAL CRISES


David McMinn

Moon Sun Finance


Most economic theories regard business cycles as occurring in variable waves of progressive expansion and contraction ad infinitum. Many analysts are skeptical about using such cycles in their investment decisions, due to their poor predictability. However, financial crises, which are the most dramatic phase of the business cycle, tend to occur every 56 years in sequences. These sequences in turn are interconnected by subcycles based on multiples of 9 years to produce a 9/56 year grid pattern. Financial crises will cluster with statistical significance within this grid, giving rise to the 9/56 year cycle discussed in this article.

For convenience, all sequences were numbered from 01 to 56 with 1761, 1817, 1873, 1929, 1985 being designated Sequence 01, 1762, 1818, 1874, 1930, 1986 as Sequence 02 and so forth. Hence, Funk's three sequences were denoted as 01, 21 and 41. The sequence year is taken as commencing on March 1, as this seems to be the year of best fit. No definition exists of what constituted a 'major' crisis in economic history. Thus Appendix 1 gives a list by Kindleberger (Appendix B, 1996) of what he considered were 'major' financial crises. This source was chosen given his pre-eminence as an historical economist and because he presented the most comprehensive listing of major crises over recent centuries. The list provided an external reference independent of this cycle study. Years in which these major crises occurred have been given in BOLD throughout the text.

The 56 Year Sequences

J M Funk (1932) was the first to establish three 56 year sequences for the US economy. These formed part of his 56 year cycle of US economic activity and have been presented as follows.

SEQUENCE 01

1761

US downturn. Ending of the French & Indian War.
(Also English crisis - June - December).

1817

US recession. Resumption of specie payments in February.
? Listed as an 1817-1818 US crisis by Adams (1936). 

1873

US Black Friday (Sep 19). Jay Cooke & Co failure.
(Also Austrian Black Friday (May 9). Vienna leasing crisis).

1929

US Black Tuesday (Oct 29). After New Era Prosperity.

1985

US$ crisis (Sep 22). G 5 meeting. Plaza Accord.

 

SEQUENCE 21

1781

US deflation. Ending of the Revolutionary War.

1837

US panic (May 10). Cotton panic. After Bank Credit Land Boom.
(Also English crisis - December 1836).

1893

US panic (May - July). National Cordage Co failure. 
US Black Wednesday (Jul 26). (Sobel, 1968).

1949

US recession.

2005

No Crisis

 

SEQUENCE 41

1801

US depression. After Carrying Trade Prosperity.

1857

US panic (Aug 24). Ohio Life Insurance & Trust Co failure.
US banking panic (Oct 14).
(Also English panic - Oct; Continental crises - Nov).

1913

1913-14 US & European war crises.
Second Balkans War. Beginning of WW 1.

1969

 US recession.

 Astonishingly in the 100 years to 1930, Funk’s three sequences contained 6 years, in which occurred five of the worst panics in US history (1837, 1857, 1873, 1893 & 1929 - the exception being the crisis of 1913). Given this highly accurate trend, additional 56 year sequences were postulated to exist in recent centuries. References on US and Western European economic history were gleaned for such patterns with the ensuing sequences being regarded as the most significant.

SEQUENCE 03

1763

Amsterdam panic (September). Ending of the Seven Years' War.

1819

US crises (Nov 1818 - Jun 1819).
English crisis.

1875

British crisis (Jun 15). Alexander Collie & Co failure. (Kitchin, 1933). 

1931

Austrian crisis (May 11). Creditanstalt failure.
German crisis (Jul 13). Danatbank failure.
British crisis (Sep 20). Off gold standard.

1987

US Black Monday (Oct 19). Worldwide stock market panics.

 

SEQUENCE 05

1765

US crisis. Stamp Act passed.

1821

No crisis

1877

1877-78 US 'sharp decline' (Sobel, 1965).
Banking fears. Great rail strike.

1933

US banking crisis (Mar 6/9).

1989

Japanese crisis. After 'bubble economy' (Jan 1990).
US Friday 13 near panic (Oct 13). 
German panic (Oct 16).
US junk bond collapse. Drexel, Burnham & Lambert failure (Feb 1990).

 

SEQUENCE 12

1772

English panic (Jun 25). Ayr Bank failure.
Amsterdam panic (Jan 1773).

1828

French crisis (Dec 1827). Bankruptcies in Alsace.

1884

US panic (May 14). After railway speculation.

1940

US near panic (May). French capitulation.

1996

No crisis

 

SEQUENCE 32

1792

English panic (Feb 1793). After canal mania.
US panic (Mar 22/23). William Duer bankruptcy (Sobel, 1968).

1848

French panic (Mar). Year of Revolutions.

1904

French panic (Feb 20).
1903 US rich man's panic (Mar).

1960

No crisis.

 

SEQUENCE 48

1808

1807-08 US Embargo Depression.

1864

French panic (Jan). After cotton speculation.
US panic (Apr 16/17) (Sobel, 1968). Civil War.

1920

USA & UK crises. After inflation.

1976

No crisis.

 

SEQUENCE 50

1810

English Great Panic (Jan 1811).

1866

English Black Friday (May 11). Overend Gurney failure.
Italian crisis (May 1). Lira convertibility suspended.

1922

German crisis (Jan 1923). Default on war reparations. 

1978

No crisis.

 

SEQUENCE 52

1812

No crisis.

1868

French crisis (Nov 1867). Credit Mobilier failure.

1924

French franc crisis (Mar 6) (Kindleberger, 1978).

1980

1979-80. US crises. Farmland (1979), US$ (1979), Oil (1980).
After silver mania (Silver Thursday - Mar 27).


Within the 56 year sequences, crises often take place in approximately the same month of the year. The crisis month is given wherever possible in the text.

Sq 01 - 1873 (USA - Sep), 1929 (USA - Oct), 1985 (US$ - Sep).

Sq 03 - 1763 (Continent - Sep), 1931 (UK - Sep), 1987 (World - Oct).
            Also 1819 (USA - Apr/May), 1875 (Britain - Jun), 1931 (Austria - May).

Sq 05 - No trend.

Sq 09 - 1713 (England - Jan - Apr 1714), 1769 (France - Feb 1770), 1825  (England - Dec), 1881 . (France - Jan 1882), 1993 (USA - Feb 1994).

Sq 12 - 1716 (England - Jan - Mar 1717), 1772 (Amsterdam - Jan 1773).
            Also 1772 (England - Jun), 1884 (USA - May), 1940 (USA - May).

Sq 21 - 1837 (USA - May), 1893 (USA - May - Jul).

Sq 32 - 1792 (USA - Mar), 1848 (France - Mar), 1904 (France - Feb).

Sq 41 - 1745 (England - Dec 6), 1857 (USA - Oct; England - Oct; Continent - Nov).

Sq 48 - Insufficient data.

Sq 50 - 1810 (England - Dec 1811), 1922 (Germany - Jan 1923).

Sq 52 - 1924 (France - Mar), 1980 (USA - Mar).

For some sequences, available data was insufficient to indicate possible trends.

SUBCYCLES IN MULTIPLES OF 9 YEARS

36 Year Subcycles. The 10 principal sequences may be linked in 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 based on multiples of 9 years (9, 18, 36, 54 years) (see Table 1). These subcycles operate for comparatively short periods, whereas the 56 year sequences may persist for centuries. Between 1760 and 1940, 34 years appeared in the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2, of which 15 were major financial crisis years according to Kindleberger (1996) (significant p < 10-4). For the period 1940 to 1996, a number of currency crises were included in Kindleberger’s listing of crisis years from 1958 onwards, few of which appeared within the 36 year subcycles. Even including these currency speculations, 17 of Kindleberger’s 42 crisis years (1760-1987) fell in the 36 year subcycles, which gave p < .001 and was thus still significant.

Table 1
36 YSC & MAJOR FINANCIAL CRISES - 1760 - 2010
Year beginning March 1

36 YSC Series 1

Sq 05

 

Sq 41

 

Sq 03

 

Sq 21

 

Sq 01

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1761

 

 

 

 

1763

+ 18

1781

+ 36

1817

1765

+ 36

1801

+ 18

1819

+ 18

1837

+ 36

1873

1821

+ 36

1857

+ 18

1875

+ 18

1893

+ 36

1929

1877

+ 36

1913

+ 18

1931

+ 18

1949

+ 36

1985

1933

+ 36

1969

+ 18

1987 

+ 18

 2005

 

 

1989

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

36 YSC Series 2

Sq 52

 

Sq 32

 

Sq 50

 

Sq 12

 

Sq 48

 

 

 

 

 

 

1772

+ 36

1808

 

 

1792

+ 18

1810

+ 18

1828

+ 36

1864

1812

+ 36

1848

+ 18

1866

+ 18

1884

+ 36

1920

1868

+ 36

1904

+ 18

1922

+ 18

1940

+ 36

1976

1924

+ 36

1960

+ 18

1978

+ 18

1996

 

 

1980

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Years in bold contained major financial crises as listed by Kindleberger 
(Appendix B, 1996) in the year commencing March 1.  

9 Year Subcycles. The 36 year subcycles Series 1 & 2 are displaced relative to each other by an factor of 9 years (ie: Series 2 plus 9 years gives Series 1). Table 2 gives the combined Series 1 & 2.

Table 2
9/56 YEAR CYCLE & FINANCIAL CRISES - 1760 – 2020
Year beginning March 1

Sq
52

Sq
05

Sq
14 

 Sq
23

Sq
32

Sq
41

Sq
50

Sq
03

Sq
12

Sq
21

 Sq
30

 Sq
39

Sq
48

Sq
01

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1761

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1763

1772

1781

1790

1799

1808

1817

 

1765

1774

1783

1792

1801

1810

1819

1828

1837

1846

1855

1864

1873

1812

1821

1830

1839

1848

1857

1866

1875

1884

1893

1902

1911

1920

1929

1868

1877

1886

1895

1904

1913

1922

1931

1940

1949

1958

1967

1976

1985

1924

1933

1942

1951

1960

1969

1978

1987

1996

 2005

2014

 

 

 

1980

1989

1998

2007

2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The 56 year sequences in the table are separated by an interval of 9 years.
Years in bold contained major financial crises as listed by Kindleberger (Appendix B, 1996) in the year commencing March 1.  


Artifact Subcycles

Numerous other patterns can be generated from the 9, 18, 36, 54 year subcycles and occur on the diagonals in Tables 1 & 2. Because they are derived from the 9/56 year cycle, they have been described as ‘artifactsubcycles. The following only discusses the 20 year subcycles, because they were the first presented by Funk (1932) and were the most obvious pattern in financial history.

20 year subcycles are to be found between Funk's Sequences 01, 21, 41 on the diagonals of the 36 year subcycles.  

36 YSC  Series 1

Sq 05

 

Sq 41

 

Sq 21

 

Sq 01

 

 

 

 

1781

+ 36

1817

1765

+ 36

1801

+ 36

1837

+ 36

1873

1821

+ 36

1857

+ 36

1893

+ 36

1929

1877

+ 36

1913

+ 36

1949

+ 36

1985

1933

+ 36

1969

 

 

 

 

1989

+ 36

2005

 

 

 

 

Years underlined gave a notable 20 year sub-cycle in US economic history beginning 1873:

Sq 01

1873

Austrian Black Friday (May 9)
US Black Friday (Sep 19)

Sq 21 

1893

US Black Wednesday (Jul 26)

Sq 41

1913

1913-14 US war crises

Sq 05

1933

US banking crisis (Mar 6)

 

1953

No crisis

 

1973

US$ crisis. OPEC oil crisis


The 36/56 year grid may be realigned to give 20 year subcycles as shown:

20 YSC  Series 1

Sq 01

 

Sq 21

 

Sq 41

 

Sq 05

1761

+ 20

1781

+ 20

1801

+ 20

1821

1817

+ 20

1837

+ 20

1857

+ 20

1877

1873

+ 20

1893

+ 20

1913

+ 20

1933

1929

+ 20

1949

+ 20

1969

+ 20

1989

1985

+ 20

2005

 

 

 

 


Earthquakes & Volcanoes

 A 9/56 year effect was first established for financial crises and then extrapolated to other critical events most notably earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The following references cover this topic in some detail.

9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes & Volcanoes,
9/56 Year Cycle: Californian Earthquakes,
Californian Earthquake Cycles,
9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in the Pacific Rim of South America,
Indian Earthquake Cycles,
9/56 Year Cycle: Alaskan Volcanic Eruptions,
9/56 Year Cycle: Lunar North Node – Apogee Angles,

Conclusions

What can be stated with a high degree of confidence is that major US and Western European financial crises cluster preferentially in 9/56 year patterns. This cycle is precise with the crisis month occurring within the crisis year (ie: March of the sequence year through to the following February) and often around the same month of the year within a given sequence. The 9/56 year cycle is complex as numerous integral numbers (based on the solar year) may be given significance. The obvious question arises as to the mechanism precipitating this very enduring cycle of financial distress. After much research the 9/56 year cycle was found to correlate very closely with cycles of the Sun and Moon, a finding covered in detail by McMinn (2000). If the Moon Sun enigma can ever be deciphered, accurate market forecasts could be made years in advance.

Copyright © 1986-2016. David McMinn. All rights reserved.

This paper was summarised from the book MARKET TIMING BY THE NUMBER 56..

Moon Sun Finance
 

REFERENCES

Adams, A B. 1936. Analyses of Business Cycles. McGraw - Hill.
Calomiris, C W & Gorton, G.
1991. The Origin of Banking Panics. Paper in Financial Markets & Financial Crises. Edited by Hubbard, R G. The University of Chicago Press.
Funk, J M. 1932. The 56 Year Cycle in American Business Activity. Privately published.
Glasner, D (ed). 1997. Business Cycles & Depressions: An Encyclopedia. Garland Publishing Inc.
Kindleberger, C P. 1996. Manias, Panics & Crashes. John Wiley & Sons.
Kitchin, J M. 1933. Trade Cycles Chart. Published by The Times Annual Financial & Commercial Review. 1920, 1924, 1930. Revised chart to 1933 presented in Gold. A reprint of The Special Number of The Times. June 20, 1933. Times Publishing Co Ltd.
McMinn, D. 1986. The 56 Year Cycles & Financial Crises. 15th Conference of Economists. The Economic Society of Australia. 25-29 August.
McMinn, D. 2002. Market Timing By The Number 56. Twin Palms Publishing.
Mishkin, F S. 1991. Asymmetric Information & Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective. Presented in Financial Markets & Financial Crises. Edited by Hubbard, R G. The University of Chicago Press.
Sobel, R. 1965. The Big Board: A History of The New York Stock Market. Free Press.
Sobel, R. 1968. anic on Wall Street: A History of America’s Financial Disasters. Macmillan.
 

APPENDIX 1    MAJOR US & WN EUROPEAN FINANCIAL CRISES POST 1760 
- KINDLEBERGER (Appendix B 1996).

1763

Amsterdam. SP - January 1763. C - September 1763. End of Seven Years' War.

1772 

England & Amsterdam. SP - June 1772. C - January 1773.

1793

England. SP - November 1792. C - February 1793. After canal mania.

1797

England. SP - 1796. C - February-June 1797.

1799 

Hamburg. SP - 1799. C - August-November 1799.

1810

England. SP - 1809. C - January 1811. Great Panic.

1815-16 

England. SP - 1815. C - 1816.

1819

USA. SP - August 1818. C - November 1818-June 1819.

England. SP - December 1818. C - None.

1825

England. SP - Early 1825. C - December 1825.

1828

France. SP - MNG. C - December 1827.

1836

England. SP - April 1836. C - December 1836.

1837

USA. SP - November 1836. C - September (error - May correct ?).

1838

France. SP - November 1836. C - June 1838.

1847

England. SP - January 1847. C - October. After railway mania.

1848

France. SP - March - April 1848. C - March 1848. Year of Revolutions.

1857

USA. SP - Late 1856. C - August 1857.

England. SP - Late 1856. SP - October 1857.       

Continent. SP - March 1857. C - November 1857.

1864

France. SP - 1863. C - January 1864.

1866

England/Italy. SP - July 1865. C - May 1866

1873

Germany/Austria. SP - Fall 1872, C - May 1873.                                                      

USA. SP - March 1873. C - September 1873.

1882

France. SP - December 1881, C - January 1882. Union Generale failure.

1890

England. SP - August 1890. C - November 1890. Baring Crisis.

1893

USA. SP - December 1892. C - May 1893. Falling gold reserves.

1907

USA. SP - Early 1907. C - October 1907.                                                       

France/Italy. SP - March 1906. C - August 1907.

1920-21

USA/UK. SP - Summer 1920. C - Spring 1921. After inflation.

1929

USA. SP - September. C - October 29. Black Tuesday.

1931-33

1931 Austria. C - May. Germany. C - June. UK. C - September.                              

1933 USA. C - March. Banking crisis.

1950's & 1960's

Currency speculations: France 1958, Canada 1962, Italy 1963, Britain 1964, France 1968 and US$ 1973.

1974-75

Worldwide. SP - 1973. C - 1974.

1979-82

USA crises:   SP - 1979. Farmland (C - 1979), US$ (C - 1979), Oil (C - 1980), Third world debt (C - 1982).

1982-87

USA crises: US$ (SP - 1985), Real Estate (SP - 1987), Stocks (SP - 1987, C - Oct 1987*).

1990

Japanese crisis. After bubble economy. SP - Dec 1989. Crisis - Jan 1990.

* Crisis given as a range 1987-92. Only the 1987 panic could be regarded as a major crisis.
Excludes the Japanese crises of December 1931 (Seq 03) and January 1990 (Seq 05), as well as the Australian banking crisis of May 1893 (Seq 21).
Abbreviations: SP- Speculative peak. C- Crisis/Panic. MNG- Month not given.

Appendix 2

NUMBERING THE 56 YEAR SEQUENCES

McMinn (2002) numbered the 56 year sequences by denoting 1761, 1817, 1873, 1929 1985 as Sequence 01. Thus the numbers can be given chronologically as in Table A. This can be adjusted to give the complete 9/56 year cycle as shown in Table B.

Table A
THE 56 YEAR SEQUENCES IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER

Sq
01

 Sq
02

Sq
03

 Sq
04

Sq
05

 Sq
06

Sq
07

Sq
08

Sq
09

Sq
10

Sq
11

Sq 12

Sq
13

Sq
14 

1761

1762

1763

1764

1765

1766

1767

1768

1769

1770

1771

1772

1773

1774

1817

1818

1819

1820

1821

1822

1823

1824

1825

1826

1827

1828

1829

1830

1873

1874

1875

1876

1877

1878

1879

1880

1881

1882

1883

1884

1885

1886

1929

1930

1931

1932

1933

1934

1935

1936

1937

1938

1939

1940

1941

1942

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Sq
15

Sq
16

Sq
17

Sq
18

Sq
19

Sq
20

Sq
21

Sq
22

Sq
23

Sq
24

Sq
25

Sq
26

Sq
27

Sq
28

1775

1776

1777

1778

1779

1780

1781

1782

1783

1784

1785

1786

1787

1788

1831

1832

1833

1834

1835

1836

1837

1838

1839

1840

1841

1842

1843

1844

1887

1888

1889

1890

1891

1892

1893

1894

1895

1896

1897

1898

1899

1900

1943

1944

1945

1946

1947

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2112

 Sq
29

Sq
30

Sq
31

Sq
32

Sq
33

Sq
34

Sq
35

Sq
36

Sq
37

Sq
38

Sq
39

Sq
40

Sq
41

 Sq
42

1789

1790

1791

1792

1793

1794

1795

1796

1797

1798

1799

1800

1801

1802

1845

1846

1847

1848

1849

1850

1851

1852

1853

1854

1855

1856

1857

1858

1901

1902

1903

1904

1905

1906

1907

1908

1909

1910

1911

1912

1913

1914

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

2013

2014

2015

2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Sq
43

Sq
44

 Sq
45

Sq
46

Sq
47

Sq
48

 Sq
49

Sq
50

 Sq
51

Sq
52

Sq
53 

 Sq
54

Sq
55

Sq
56
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1760

1803

1804

1805

1806

1807

1808

1809

1810

1811

1812

1813

1814

1815

1816

1859

1860

1861

1862

1863

1864

1865

1866

1867

1868

1869

1870

1871

1872

1915

1916

1917

1918

1919

1920

1921

1922

1923

1924

1925

1926

1927

1928

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

 

Table B
THE COMPLETE 9/56 YEAR CYCLE
 
Year beginning March 1

Sq
52

Sq
05

 Sq
14

Sq
23

Sq
32

Sq
41

Sq
50

Sq
03

Sq
12

Sq
21

 Sq
30

 Sq
39

Sq
48

Sq
01

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1761

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1763

1772

1781

1790

1799

1808

1817

 

1765

1774

1783

1792

1801

1810

1819

1828

1837

1846

1855

1864

1873

1812

1821

1830

1839

1848

1857

1866

1875

1884

1893

1902

1911

1920

1929

1868

1877

1886

1895

1904

1913

1922

1931

1940

1949

1958

1967

1976

1985

1924

1933

1942

1951

1960

1969

1978

1987

1996

2005

2014

2023

 

 

1980

1989

1998

2007

2016

2025

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Sq
10

Sq
19

Sq
28

Sq
37

Sq
46

Sq
55

Sq
08

Sq
17

Sq
26

Sq
35

Sq
44

Sq
53

Sq
06

Sq
15 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1766

1775

 

 

 

 

 

 

1768

1777

1786

1795

1804

1813

1822

1831

1770

1779

1788

1797

1806

1815

1824

1833

1842

1851

1860

1869

1878

1887

1826

1835

1844

1853

1862

1871

1880

1889

1898

1907

1916

1925

1934

1943

1882

1891

1900

1909

1918

1927

1936

1945

1954

1963

1972

1981

1990

1999

1938

1947

1956

1965

1974

1983

1992

2001

2010

2019

 

 

 

 

1994

2003

2012

2021

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sq
24

Sq
33

Sq
42

Sq
51

Sq
04

Sq
13

Sq
22

Sq
31

Sq
40

Sq
49

Sq
02

Sq
11

Sq
20

Sq
29

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1762

1771

1780

1789

 

 

 

 

1764

1773

1782

1791

1800

1809

1818

1827

1836

1845

1784

1793

1802

1811

1820

1829

1838

1847

1856

1865

1874

1883

1892

1901

1840

1849

1858

1867

1876

1885

1894

1903

1912

1921

1930

1939

1948

1957

1896

1905

1914

1923

1932

1941

1950

1959

1968

1977

1986

1995

2004

2013

1952

1961

1970

1979

1988

1997

2006

2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sq
38

Sq
47

Sq
56

Sq
09

Sq
18

Sq
27

Sq
36

Sq
45

Sq
54

Sq
07

Sq
16

Sq
25

Sq
34

Sq
43

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1767

1776

1785

1794

1803

 

 

1760

1769

1778

1787

1796

1805

1814

1823

1832

1841

1850

1859

1798

1807

1816

1825

1834

1843

1852

1861

1870

1879

1888

1897

1906

1915

1854

1863

1872

1881

1890

1899

1908

1917

1926

1935

1944

1953

1962

1971

1910

1919

1928

1937

1946

1955

1964

1973

1982

1991

2000

2009

 

 

1966

1975

1984

1993

2002

2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Years containing major financial crises (Kindleberger, Appendix B, 1996). presented in bold.