|
9/56 YEAR CYCLE:
FINANCIAL CRISES
David McMinn
Moon Sun Finance
Most economic theories regard
business cycles as occurring in variable waves of progressive expansion
and contraction ad infinitum. Many analysts are skeptical about using such
cycles in their investment decisions, due to their poor predictability.
However, financial crises, which are the most dramatic phase of the
business cycle, tend to occur every 56 years in sequences. These sequences
in turn are interconnected by sub-cycles based on multiples of 9 years to
produce a 9/56 year grid pattern.
The financial crises typically involve a period of over optimism, greed
and rampant speculation, followed by crisis, fear and economic slump. Each
crisis is unique and cannot be compared with other crises in a particular
sequence.
THE PRINCIPAL 56 YEAR
SEQUENCES
J
M Funk (1932) was the first to establish three 56 year sequences for the US economy (see subsequently). For convenience, all
sequences in the 56 year cycle were numbered from 01 to 56 with (1761, 1817,
1873, 1929, 1985) being designated Sequence 01. Hence, Funk's three
sequences were denoted as 01, 21 and 41. The sequence
year is taken as commencing on March 1, as this seems to be the year of
best fit. No definition exists of what constituted a 'major' crisis in
economic history. Thus Appendix 1 gives a list by Kindleberger (Appendix
B, 1996) of
what he considered were 'major' financial crises. This source was chosen
given his pre-eminence as an historical economist and because he presented
the most comprehensive listing of major crises over recent centuries. The
list provided an external reference independent of this cycle study. Years
in which these major crises occurred have been given in BOLD
throughout the text. Funk's original three 56 year sequences are presented as
follows.
| SEQUENCE 01 |
|
| 1761 |
US
downturn. Ending of the French & Indian War.
(Also English crisis - June - December). |
| 1817 |
US recession. Resumption of specie
payments in February.
? Listed as an 1817-1818 US crisis by Adams (1936). |
| 1873 |
US Black Friday
(Sep 19).
Jay Cooke & Co failed.
(Also Austrian Black Friday (May 9). Vienna leasing crisis). |
| 1929 |
US Black Tuesday
(Oct 29).
After New Era Prosperity. |
| 1985 |
US$ crisis
(Sep 22).
G 5 meeting.
Plaza Accord. |
| |
|
| SEQUENCE 21 |
|
| 1781 |
US deflation. Ending of
the Revolutionary War. |
| 1837 |
US panic (May
10). Cotton
panic. After Bank Credit Land Boom.
(Also English crisis - December 1836). |
| 1893 |
US panic (May
- July).
National
Cordage Co failed.
US Black Wednesday (Jul 26). (Sobel, 1968). |
| 1949 |
US recession. |
| 2005 |
No Crisis |
| |
|
| SEQUENCE 41 |
|
| 1801 |
US depression. After
Carrying Trade Prosperity. |
| 1857 |
US panic (Aug 24). Ohio
Life Insurance & Trust Co failed.
US banking panic (Oct 14).
(Also English panic - Oct; Continental crises -
Nov). |
| 1913 |
1913-14 US & European
war crises.
Second Balkans War. Beginning of WW 1. |
| 1969 |
US recession. |
Astonishingly in the 100 years to
1930, Funk’s three sequences contained 6 years, in which occurred five
of the worst panics in US history (1837, 1857, 1873,
1893 & 1929 - the exception being the crisis of 1913).
Given this highly accurate trend, additional 56 year sequences were
postulated to exist in recent centuries. References on US and Western
European economic history were gleaned for such patterns with the ensuing
sequences being regarded as the most significant.
| SEQUENCE 03 |
|
| 1763 |
Amsterdam panic
(September). Ending of the Seven Years' War. |
| 1819 |
US crises
(Nov 1818 - Jun 1819).
English crisis. |
| 1875 |
British
crisis (Jun 15). Alexander Collie & Co failed. (Kitchin,
1933). |
| 1931 |
Austrian crisis (May 11).
Creditanstalt failed.
German crisis (Jul 13). Danatbank failed.
British crisis
(Sep
20). Off gold standard. |
| 1987 |
US Black Monday
(Oct 19).
Worldwide stock market panics. |
| |
|
| SEQUENCE 05 |
|
| 1765 |
US crisis. Stamp Act passed.
|
| 1821 |
No crisis |
| 1877 |
1877-78 US 'sharp decline'
(Sobel,
1965).
Banking fears. Great rail strike.
|
| 1933 |
US banking crisis
(Mar
6/9).
|
| 1989 |
Japanese
crisis. After 'bubble economy' (Jan 1990).
US Friday 13 near panic (Oct 13).
German panic (Oct 16).
US junk bond collapse. Drexel, Burnham & Lambert failure (Feb
1990).
|
| |
|
| SEQUENCE 12 |
|
| 1772 |
English panic
(Jun
25). Ayr Bank failed
Amsterdam panic (Jan 1773). |
| 1828 |
French crisis
(Dec 1827).
Bankruptcies in Alsace. |
| 1884 |
US panic (May 13/16).
After railway speculation. |
| 1940 |
US near panic (May). French
capitulation. |
| 1996 |
No crisis |
| |
|
| SEQUENCE 32 |
|
| 1792 |
English panic
(Feb 1793).
After canal
mania.
US panic (Mar 22/23). William Duer bankruptcy (Sobel, 1968). |
| 1848 |
French panic
(Mar). Year of
Revolutions. |
| 1904 |
French panic
(Feb
20).
1903 US rich man's panic (Mar). |
| 1960 |
No crisis. |
| |
|
| SEQUENCE 48 |
|
| 1808 |
1807-08 US Embargo Depression. |
| 1864 |
French panic
(Jan). After cotton
speculation.
US panic (Apr 16/17) (Sobel, 1968). Civil War. |
| 1920 |
USA & UK crises. After
inflation. |
| 1976 |
No crisis. |
| |
|
| SEQUENCE 50 |
|
| 1810 |
English Great Panic
(Jan
1811). |
| 1866 |
English Black Friday (May 11).
Overend Gurney failed.
Italian crisis (May 1). Lira convertibility
suspended. |
| 1922 |
German crisis
(Jan 1923). Default on war reparations. |
| 1978 |
No crisis. |
| |
|
| SEQUENCE 52 |
|
| 1812 |
No crisis. |
| 1868 |
French crisis (Nov 1867). Credit
Mobilier failed |
| 1924 |
French franc crisis (Mar 6) (Kindleberger,
1978). |
| 1980 |
1979-80. US crises. Farmland
(1979), US$ (1979), Oil
(1980).
After silver mania (Silver Thursday - Mar 27). |
Within the 56 year sequences,
crises often take place in approximately the same month of the year. The
crisis month is given wherever possible in the text.
Sq 01 - 1873 (USA -
Sep), 1929 (USA - Oct), 1985 (US$ - Sep).
Sq 03 - 1763 (Continent -
Sep), 1931 (UK - Sep), 1987 (World - Oct).
Also 1819 (USA -
Apr/May),
1875 (Britain - Jun), 1931 (Austria - May).
Sq 05 - No trend.
Sq 09 - 1713 (England - Jan -
Apr 1714), 1769 (France - Feb 1770), 1825 (England
-
Dec), 1881 (France - Jan 1882), 1993 (USA - Feb 1994)
Sq 12 - 1716 (England - Jan -
Mar
1717), 1772 (Amsterdam - Jan
1773).
Also 1772 (England -
Jun), 1884 (USA - May), 1940 (USA -
May).
Sq 21 - 1837 (USA - May),
1893 (USA - May - Jul).
Sq 32 - 1792 (USA -
Mar),
1848 (France - Mar), 1904 (France - Feb).
Sq 41 - 1745 (England - Dec
6),
1857 (USA - Oct; England - Oct; Continent - Nov).
Sq 48 - Insufficient
data.
Sq 50 - 1810 (England -
Dec 1811), 1922 (Germany - Jan 1923).
Sq 52 - 1924 (France - Mar),
1980 (USA - Mar).
For some sequences, available data
was insufficient to indicate possible trends.
SUB-CYCLES IN MULTIPLES OF 9
YEARS
36 Year Sub-Cycles.
The 10 principal
sequences may be linked in 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 based on multiples
of 9 years (9, 18, 36, 54 years) (see Table 1). These sub-cycles
operate for comparatively short periods, where as the 56 year sequences
may persist for centuries. Between 1760 and 1940, 34 years
appeared in the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2, of which 15 were major
financial crisis years according to Kindleberger (1996). (This figure
does not include the crises of 1828 and 1864 that occurred early - ie: pre March.) Using
a chi-squared test, the probability was assessed at p < 10-4 and thus
very unlikely to occur by chance. For the period 1940 to 1996, a number of
currency crises were included in Kindleberger’s listing of crisis years
from 1958 onwards, none of which appeared within the 36 year
sub-cycles. Even including these currency speculations, 17 of
Kindleberger’s 42 crisis years (1760-1987) fell in the 36 year sub-cycles,
which gave p < .001 and was thus still significant.
|
Table 1 36 YSC
& MAJOR FINANCIAL CRISES - 1760 - 2010
Year beginning March 1 |
| 36 YSC Series 1 |
|
Sq 05 |
|
Sq 41 |
|
Sq 03 |
|
Sq 21 |
|
Sq
01 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1761 |
|
|
|
|
|
1763 |
+ 18 |
1781 |
+ 36 |
1817 |
|
1765 |
+ 36 |
1801 |
+ 18 |
1819 |
+ 18 |
1837 |
+ 36 |
1873 |
|
1821 |
+ 36 |
1857 |
+ 18 |
1875 |
+ 18 |
1893 |
+ 36 |
1929 |
|
1877 |
+ 36 |
1913 |
+ 18 |
1931 |
+ 18 |
1949 |
+ 36 |
1985 |
|
1933 |
+ 36 |
1969 |
+ 18 |
1987 |
+ 18 |
2005 |
|
|
|
1989 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 36 YSC Series 2 |
| Sq 52 |
|
Sq 32 |
|
Sq 50 |
|
Sq 12 |
|
Sq 48 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
1772 |
+ 36 |
1808 |
| |
|
1792 |
+ 18 |
1810 |
+ 18 |
1828 |
+ 36 |
1864 |
| 1812 |
+ 36 |
1848 |
+ 18 |
1866 |
+ 18 |
1884 |
+ 36 |
1920 |
| 1868 |
+ 36 |
1904 |
+ 18 |
1922 |
+ 18 |
1940 |
+ 36 |
1976 |
| 1924 |
+ 36 |
1960 |
+ 18 |
1978 |
+ 18 |
1996 |
|
|
| 1980 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Years in bold
contained major financial crises as listed by Kindleberger
(Appendix B, 1996) in the year commencing March 1. |
Most importantly, Kindleberger's
major crises in the 36 ysc Series 1 occurred in the 7 months
between May and November, with an emphasis on May and September/October.
There were only two exceptions:
1819 US crisis (Given as a range by
Kindleberger (1996) November
1818 - June 1819).
Calomiris & Gorton
(1991) gave April/ May 1819 as the ‘height of panic’.
1933 US banking crisis
(March).
In Series 2, all the major crises
took place in March - June and January - February of the following
year.
Financial crises in other
listings also fall with significance in patterns of the 36 ysc Series 1
& 2:
*
39 US & Wn European major/minor crises (1796-1937). Kitchin (1933)
(14 - p < .01).
*
31 US & Wn European crises (1763-1933). Adams (1936) (14 - p <
.001).
Such findings further support a
9/56 year panic cycle.
During 1760-1940, 15 major crises
occurred in the 12 months beginning March 1 of the years in the 36 ysc
Series 1 & 2, a figure which represented half the 30 crises listed by
Kindleberger (1996). For the 1940-87 period, only the
1980 and 1987 crises fell in the 36 year sub-cycles. Many
other crises listed by Kindleberger (1996) did not appear in these
sub-cycles:
*
Currency crises - 1958, 1962, 1963, 1964,
1968, 1973, 1978-79.
*
Major financial crises - 1974-75, 1982.
The main
discrepancy occurs with the currency crises of the post war era. How well
distress in currency markets correlates with the 56 year sequences is
debatable and more work is required for a meaningful assessment.
Additional research may show that major financial crises align more
readily with the 9/56 year cycle than do international currency
crises.
Since 1996, the
key US crises of 1998 and 2007 fall in Table 2, with anomalies occurring in
2000, 2001 and 2008.
The 36 year
sub-cycles Series 1 & 2 are displaced relative to each other by an factor of 9 years
(ie: Series 2 plus 9 years gives Series 1). Table 2 gives the combined
Series 1 & 2.
|
Table
2 COMBINED 36 YSC
SERIES 1 & 2 - 1760 - 2010
Year beginning March 1 |
|
Sq
52
|
Sq
05
|
|
|
Sq
32 |
Sq
41 |
Sq
50
|
Sq
03
|
Sq
12
|
Sq
21
|
|
|
Sq
48
|
Sq
01
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1761 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1763
|
1772 |
1781
|
1790 |
1799 |
1808 |
1817 |
| |
1765
|
1774 |
1783 |
1792 |
1801
|
1810 |
1819
|
1828 |
1837
|
1846 |
1855 |
1864 |
1873 |
| 1812 |
1821
|
1830 |
1839 |
1848 |
1857
|
1866 |
1875
|
1884 |
1893
|
1902 |
1911 |
1920 |
1929 |
| 1868 |
1877
|
1886 |
1895 |
1904 |
1913
|
1922 |
1931
|
1940 |
1949
|
1958 |
1967 |
1976 |
1985 |
| 1924 |
1933
|
1942 |
1951 |
1960 |
1969
|
1978 |
1987
|
1996 |
2005 |
|
|
|
|
| 1980 |
1989
|
1998 |
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The 56 year sequences in
the table are separated by an interval of 9 years.
Years in bold contained major
financial crises as listed by Kindleberger (Appendix B, 1996) in the year commencing March 1. |
ARTIFACT
SUB-CYCLES
Numerous other patterns can be generated from the 9, 18, 36, 54
year sub-cycles and occur on the diagonals in Tables 1
& 2. Because they are derived from the 9/56 year cycle,
they have been described as ‘artifact’ sub-cycles. The following only
discusses the 20 year sub-cycles, which are the most obvious sub-cycles in
economic history and were first presented by Funk (1932). The many
other artifact cycles are covered by McMinn (2006).
20 year sub-cycles are to
be found between Funk's Sequences 01, 21, 41 on the diagonals of the 36 year
sub-cycles.
36 YSC Series 1
| Sq
05 |
|
Sq
41 |
|
Sq
21 |
|
Sq
01 |
| |
|
|
|
1781 |
+ 36 |
1817 |
| 1765 |
+ 36 |
1801 |
+ 36 |
1837 |
+ 36 |
1873 |
| 1821 |
+ 36 |
1857 |
+ 36 |
1893 |
+ 36 |
1929 |
| 1877 |
+ 36 |
1913 |
+ 36 |
1949 |
+ 36 |
1985 |
| 1933 |
+ 36 |
1969 |
|
|
|
|
| 1989 |
+ 36 |
2005 |
|
|
|
|
Years underlined
gave the most
notable 20
year sub-cycle in US economic history beginning 1873:
| Sq
01 |
1873
|
Austrian
Black Friday (May 9)
US Black Friday (Sep 19) |
| Sq
21 |
1893
|
US
Black Wednesday (Jul 26) |
| Sq
41 |
1913
|
1913-14 US
war crises |
|
Sq 05 |
1933
|
US banking
crisis (Mar 6) |
| |
1953
|
US 'disturbance'
(Mar) |
| |
1973
|
US$ crisis. OPEC
oil crisis |
| |
1993
|
US bond
market collapse (Feb 1994) |
The 36/56 year
grid may be realigned to give 20 year sub-cycles as
shown:
20 YSC Series 1
| Sq
01 |
|
Sq
21 |
|
Sq
41 |
|
Sq
05 |
| 1761 |
+ 20 |
1781 |
+ 20 |
1801 |
+ 20 |
1821 |
| 1817 |
+ 20 |
1837 |
+ 20 |
1857 |
+ 20 |
1877 |
| 1873 |
+ 20 |
1893 |
+ 20 |
1913 |
+ 20 |
1933 |
| 1929 |
+ 20 |
1949 |
+ 20 |
1969 |
+ 20 |
1989 |
| 1985 |
+ 20 |
2005 |
|
|
|
|
EARTHQUAKES
A 9/56 year
effect may also be evident in earthquakes cycles, as these events can
fall preferentially in these patterns for many countries in the circum Pacific
and elsewhere (9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes &
Volcanoes). Good examples of the 9/56 year seismic cycle are
given for California, Hawaii
& Alaska.
Californian Earthquakes. How earthquakes can manifest in a 9/56 year cycle is well
illustrated from Californian seismic history. Remarkably,
10 major quakes in California - Nevada - Baja California (mag =>
6.9) happened in
only five 56 year sequences (Sqs 25, 34, 43, 52 & 05) (see Table 3). Within
three sequences (Sqs 43, 52 & 05), 7 quakes took place in the 2.7 months
ended December 21, whereas a mere 0.4 could have been
expected by chance. The
five 56 sequences in Table 3 comprised only 9% of the complete 9/56 grid, but
contained:
*
36% of all major Californian earthquakes
(mag =>
6.9).
* 58% of major
Californian earthquakes taking place in October to December.
|
Table
3
9/56 YEAR CYCLE: CALIFORNIAN QUAKES (mag => 6.9)
Year beginning April 15
|
|
Sq
25
|
|
Sq
34
|
|
Sq
43
|
|
Sq
52
|
|
Sq
05
|
|
|
|
|
|
1803
|
+
9
|
1812
1208
1221
|
+
9
|
1821
|
|
1841
|
+
9
|
1850
|
+
9
|
1859
|
+
9
|
1868
1021
|
+
9
|
1877
|
|
1897
|
+
9
|
1906
0418
|
+
9
|
1915
1003
1121
|
+
9
|
1924
|
+
9
|
1933
|
|
1953
|
+
9
|
1962
|
+
9
|
1971
|
+
9
|
1980
1108
|
+
9
|
1989
1018
|
|
2009
0803
100404
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Years
in bold contained quakes (mag => 6.9) in the year beginning April
15.
Dates expressed as YYYYMMDD.
Source:
Table 1, David McMinn
|
Crucially,
four sequences (Sqs 25, 34, 43 & 52) in Table 3 experienced numerous record events.
* Sqs 25 & 43 - First and second rank quakes for Baja California
(Mexicali. mag 7.2, Apr 04, 2010 and Volcano
Lake. mag 7.1. Nov 21, 1915).
* Sq 34 - The biggest northern Californian quake
(San Francisco. mag 8.25. April 18,
1906).
* Sq 34 –
Record New Mexico quakes happened in 1906 on July 16 and November 15 (both at 5.8 mag).
* Sq 34 - Equal
first rank Arizona quake on January 25, 1906 (Flagstaff. mag 6.2).
* Sq 43 -
Record quake for Nevada (Pleasant Valley. mag 7.7. Oct 03, 1915).
* Sq 52 -
Record quake for western USA. (Great Cascadia. mag 9.0. Jan 26, 1700).
* Sq 52 - Record US
volcanic eruption (ex Alaska) (Mt St Helens, May 18, 1980).
The
1857 Fort Tejon event (mag 8.25), the record quake for southern
California, was the notable exception and fell
outside the four 56 year sequences.
CONCLUSIONS
What can be stated with a high
degree of confidence is that major US and Western European financial
crises happen preferentially in 9/56 year patterns. The 9/56 year
cycle is precise with the crisis month occurring within the crisis year
(ie: March of the sequence year through to the following February) and
often around the same month of the year within a given sequence. The 9/56
year cycle is extremely complex as numerous integral numbers (based on the
solar year) may be given significance. The obvious question arises as to
the mechanism precipitating this very enduring cycle of financial
distress. After much research the 9/56 year cycle was found to correlate
very closely with cycles of the Sun and Moon, a finding covered by McMinn (2000).
This cycle offers to make the potential to amke accurate
financial forecasts years in advance.
Copyright © 1986-2010. David McMinn. All
rights reserved.
This paper was summarised from the book
MARKET TIMING By The Number 56. The published by
Twin Palms Publishing, BLUE KNOB.
NSW 2480. Australia.
Moon Sun Finance
REFERENCES
Adams, A B. Analyses of Business Cycles. McGraw - Hill.
1936.
Calomiris, C W & Gorton, Gary. The Origin of
Banking Panics. Paper in Financial Markets & Financial
Crises. Edited by Hubbard, R G. The University of Chicago Press.
1991.
Funk, J M. The 56 Year Cycle in American Business
Activity. Privately published. 1932.
Glasner, David (ed).
Business Cycles & Depressions: An Encyclopedia. Garland Publishing
Inc. 1997.
Kindleberger, C P. Manias, Panics & Crashes.
John Wiley & Sons. First published 1978. Updated 1989. Revised
1996.
Kitchin, J M. Trade Cycles Chart. Published by The
Times Annual Financial & Commercial Review. 1920, 1924, 1930. Revised
chart to 1933 presented in Gold. A reprint of The Special Number of
The Times. June 20, 1933. Times Publishing Co Ltd. 1933.
McMinn,
David. The 56 Year Cycles & Financial Crises. 15th
Conference of Economists. The Economic Society of Australia. 25-29 August,
1986.
McMinn, David. Market Timing By The Number 56. Twin
Palms Publishing. 2002
Mishkin, F S. Asymmetric Information & Financial
Crises: A Historical Perspective. Presented in Financial Markets
& Financial Crises. Edited by Hubbard, R G. The University of
Chicago Press. 1991.
Sobel, Robert. The Big Board: A History
of The New York Stock Market. Free Press. 1965.
Sobel, Robert.
Panic on Wall Street: A History of America’s Financial
Disasters. Macmillan. 1968.
|
APPENDIX 1
MAJOR US & WN EUROPEAN FINANCIAL CRISES POST
1760
- KINDLEBERGER (Appendix B 1996).
|
| 1763 |
Amsterdam. SP -
January 1763. C - September 1763. End of Seven Years'
War. |
| 1772 |
England &
Amsterdam. SP - June 1772. C - January 1773. |
| 1793 |
England. SP -
November 1792. C - February 1793. After canal
mania. |
| 1797 |
England. SP -
1796. C - February-June 1797. |
| 1799 |
Hamburg. SP -
1799. C - August-November 1799. |
| 1810 |
England. SP -
1809. C - January 1811. Great Panic. |
| 1815-16 |
England. SP -
1815. C - 1816. |
| 1819 |
USA. SP - August 1818. C -
November 1818-June 1819. |
| England. SP -
December 1818. C - None. |
| 1825 |
England. SP -
Early 1825. C - December 1825. |
| 1828 |
France. SP -
MNG. C - December 1827. |
| 1836 |
England. SP -
April 1836. C - December 1836. |
| 1837 |
USA. SP -
November 1836. C - September (error - May correct
?). |
| 1838 |
France. SP -
November 1836. C - June 1838. |
| 1847 |
England. SP -
January 1847. C - October. After railway mania. |
| 1848 |
France. SP -
March - April 1848. C - March 1848. Year of
Revolutions. |
| 1857 |
USA. SP - Late 1856. C -
August 1857. |
| England. SP -
Late 1856. SP - October
1857. |
| Continent. SP -
March 1857. C - November 1857. |
| 1864 |
France. SP -
1863. C - January 1864. |
| 1866 |
England/Italy.
SP - July 1865. C - May 1866 |
| 1873 |
Germany/Austria.
SP - Fall 1872, C - May
1873. |
| USA. SP - March
1873. C - September 1873. |
| 1882 |
France. SP -
December 1881, C - January 1882. Union Generale
failure. |
| 1890 |
England. SP -
August 1890. C - November 1890. Baring Crisis. |
| 1893 |
USA. SP -
December 1892. C - May 1893. Falling gold reserves. |
| 1907 |
USA.
SP - Early 1907. C - October
1907. |
| France/Italy.
SP - March 1906. C - August 1907. |
| 1920-21 |
USA/UK. SP -
Summer 1920. C - Spring 1921. After inflation. |
| 1929 |
USA. SP -
September. C - October 29. Black Tuesday. |
| 1931-33 |
1931
Austria. C - May. Germany. C - June. UK. C -
September. |
| 1933 USA. C -
March. Banking crisis. |
| 1950's &
1960's |
Currency speculations:
France 1958, Canada 1962, Italy 1963, Britain 1964, France 1968 and
US$ 1973. |
| 1974-75 |
Worldwide. SP -
1973. C - 1974. |
| 1979-82 |
USA crises: SP
- 1979. Farmland (C - 1979), US$ (C - 1979), Oil (C -
1980), Third world debt (C - 1982). |
| 1982-87 |
USA crises: US$
(SP - 1985), Real Estate (SP - 1987), Stocks (SP - 1987, C - Oct
1987*). |
| 1990 |
Japanese
crisis. After bubble economy. SP - Dec 1989. Crisis - Jan 1990. |
* Crisis given as a range 1987-92.
Only the 1987 panic could be regarded as a major crisis.
Excludes the
Japanese crises of December 1931 (Seq 03) and January 1990 (Seq 05), as
well as the Australian banking crisis of May 1893 (Seq
21).
Abbreviations: SP- Speculative peak. C- Crisis/Panic. MNG- Month
not given. |
|