9/56 YEAR CYCLE: NEW YORK STATE EARTHQUAKES

APPENDIX 8 NEW YORK STATE EARTHQUAKES

Moon Sun Finance

Appendix for the paper 9/56 year Cycles: Earthquakes & Volcanoes

NEW YORK CITY. Won-Young Kim of Columbia University gave a listing of the significant quakes in the New York City region to 1999. Of the 18 events presented, 11 fell in the 12 months beginning June 1 of those years in Table A (significant p < .01). Remarkably, of the top 7 earthquakes (mag => 4.0), five occurred in the 9/56 patterns during the four months beginning August 1. The 9th rank quake also occurred in Table A, but on June 1, 1927.

Table A 9/56 YEAR CYCLE: NYC QUAKES 1730 - 1990 Year commencing June 1
	Sq 32	Sq 41	Sq 50	Sq 03	Sq 12	Sq 21			Sq 48	Sq 01
1783* 1130	1792	1801	1810	1819	1828	1837	1846	1855	1864	1873	1882	1891	1900	1909	1918	1927* 0601
1839	1848* 0909	1857	1866	1875	1884 0810* 850104	1893	1902	1911	1920	1929	1938 0823	1947	1956 570323	1965	1974	1983
1895* 0901	1904	1913	1922	1931	1940	1949	1958	1967	1976	1985* 1019	1994	2003
1951 0903	1960	1969	1978 790310	1987	1996	2005
2007
The 56 year sequences in the table are separated by an interval of 9 years. * Among the 8 biggest quakes recorded in New York City. Years in bold contained major New York City earthquakes in the year commencing June 1 of those years in the table. Source of Raw Data: Won-Young Kim of Columbia University

LARGEST EARTHQUAKES NEAR NEW YORK CITY 1730 - 2001 Won-Young Kim Columbia University
Richter (ML)	Date	Location	Max. Intensity
5.2	1884 Aug 10	Greater N.Y. City area	VII
5.2	1737 Dec 19	Greater N.Y. City area*	VII
4.9	1783 Nov 30	N. Central N.J.*	VI
4.5	1847	Greater N.Y. City area*	V
4.4	1848 Sep 09	Greater N.Y. City area*	V
4.3	1895 Sep 01	N. Central N.J.	VI
4	1985 Oct 19	Ardsley, N.Y.	IV
3.9	1927 Jun 01	Near Asbury Park, N.J.	VI-VII
3.8	1845 Oct 26	Greater N.Y. City area*	VI
3.8	1938 Aug 23	Central N.J.	VI
3.6	1951 Sep 03	Rockland Co., N.Y.	V
3.5	1937 Jul 19	Western Long Is., N.Y.	IV
3.5	1957 Mar 23	Central N.J.	VI
3.4	1874 Dec 11	Near Nyack & Tarry-town, NY	VI
3.4	1885 Jan 04	Hudson Valley	VI
3.2	1979 Mar 10	Central N.J.	V-VI
2.4	2001 Jan 17	Manhattan, New York City	IV
2.6	2001 Oct 17	Manhattan, New York City	IV
* Location very poorly determined; may be uncertain by 50 miles. ML = Richter local magnitude. Years in bold contained major New York City earthquakes in the year commencing June 1 of those years in Table A. Dates expressed as YYYYMMDD. Source: Won-Young Kim Columbia University

NEW YORK STATE: 1735-1985. The University of Buffalo published a listing of 24 earthquakes in New York State between 1850 and 1985. Of this figure, 16 fell in the 12 months beginning April 20 of those years in the 9/56 year grid in Table B (significant p < .01).

Table B 9/56 YEAR CYCLE: NEW YORK STATE EARTHQUAKES 1850 - 1985 Year commencing April 20
						Sq 54	Sq 05				Sq 41	Sq 50	Sq 03	Sq 12	Sq 21			Sq 48	Sq 01
																	1855	1864	1873
											1857 1023	1866	1875	1884 0810	1893	1902	1911	1920	1929 0812
				1850	1859	1868	1877 1104 780205	1886	1895	1904	1913 140210	1922	1931 0420	1940	1949	1958	1967 0613	1976	1985 1019
1870	1879	1888	1897 0528	1906	1915 160203	1924	1933 340415	1942	1951	1960	1969	1978	1987	1996	2005	2014
1926	1935 1101	1944 0905 0905	1953	1962	1971	1980	1989	1998	2007
1982 830226	1991	2000	2009
The 56 year sequences in the table are separated from each other by an interval of 9 years. Years in bold contained major New York State quakes in the 12 months commencing April 20 of those years in this table. Dates expressed as YYYYMMDD. Source of Raw Data: University of Buffalo.

The events in the 9/56 year grid in Table B gave much greater significant if they were presented in an 18/56 year cycle. Some 12 quakes show up in Table C, where as 4.3 could have been expected by chance.

Table C 18/56 YEAR CYCLE: NEW YORK STATE EARTHQUAKES 1850 - 1985 Year commencing April 20
			Sq 05		Sq 41	Sq 03	Sq 21		Sq 01
								1855	1873
					1857 1023	1875	1893	1911	1929 0812
		1859	1877 1104 780205	1895	1913 140210	1931 0420	1949	1967 0613	1985 1019
1879	1897 0528	1915 160203	1933 340415	1951	1969	1987	2005
1935 1101	1953	1971	1989	2007
1991	2009
The 56 year sequences in the table are separated from each other by an interval of 18 years. Years in bold contained major New York State quakes in the 12 months commencing April 20 of those years in this table. Dates expressed as YYYYMMDD. Source of Raw Data: University of Buffalo.

NEW YORK STATE EARTHQUAKES 1850 - 1985
University of Buffalo

Date/Time (utc) Latitude Longitude Magnitude MMI
1853 03/12 07:30 43.7 N 75.5 W -- VI
1855 02/07 04:30 42.0 N 74.0 W -- VI
1857 10/23 20:15 43.2 N 78.6 W 4.30Mfa SC VI
1867 12/18 08:00 44.7 N 75.2 W 4.30Mfa SC VI
1877 11/04 06:56 44.5 N 74.0 W 4.90Mfa SC VII
1878 02/05 16:20 40.8 N 73.9 W -- VI
1884 08/10 19:07 40.6 N 74.0 W 5.50Mfa SET VII
1897 05/28 03:16 44.5 N 73.5 W 4.70Mfa SC VI
1914 02/10 18:31 44.98 N 76.92 W 5.20Mfa SC VII
1916 02/03 04:24 43.0 N 74.0 W 4.10Mfa SC VI
1928 03/18 15:20 44.5 N 74.3 W 4.10Ml EPB VI
1929 08/12 11:24 42.910 N 78.402 W 5.20Mn ST VIII
1931 04/20 19:54 43.471 N 73.785 W 4.70Mn ST VII
1934 04/15 02:58 44.7 N 73.8 W 4.50Ml EPB VI
1935 11/01 06:03 46.87 N 79.05 W 6.20Ms GR VII
1944 09/05 04:38 44.958 N 74.723 W 5.80Mn ST VIII
1944 09/05 08:51 44.999 N 74.652 W 4.50Mn BAS --
1966 01/01 13:23 42.842 N 78.249 W 4.60Mn STR VI
1967 06/13 19:08 42.837 N 78.234 W 4.40Mn STR VI
1974 06/07 19:45 41.595 N 73.951 W 2.90Mn DG VI
1975 06/09 18:39 44.874 N 73.651 W 3.50Mn ST VI
1983 02/26 19:59 41.552 N 73.663 W 2.90Mn GS VI
1983 10/07 10:18 43.938 N 74.258 W 5.10Ml PAL VI
1985 10/19 10:07 40.983 N 73.829 W 4.00Ml PAL VI

* Location very poorly determined; may be uncertain by 50 miles.
ML = Richter local magnitude.
MMI Modified Mercalli Intensity
Years in bold contained major New York State earthquakes in the 12 months commencing April 20 of those years in Table B.
Source: University of Buffalo.

WESTERN NEW YORK - SOUTHERN ONTARIO: 1850-1970. The University of Buffalo gave a listing of 19 earthquakes in western New York State and southern Ontario for the 1850-1970 era. Of this figure, 15 occurred in the year commencing April 20 of those years in Table D, which compared with the expected frequency of about 5.1.

Table D 9/56 YEAR CYCLE; WESTERN NY & SOUTHERN ONTARIO QUAKES Year commencing April 20
Sq 41	Sq 50	Sq 03	Sq 12	Sq 21			Sq 48	Sq 01
												1853	1862	1871
						1855	1864	1873 0706	1882	1891	1900	1909	1918	1927 1112
1857 1023 580115	1866	1875 760108	1884	1893	1902	1911	1920	1929 0812 1202 1203 300117	1938	1947	1956	1965 0716 0827 660101	1974	1983
1913	1922	1931 0422	1940	1949	1958	1967 0613	1976	1985	1994	2003
1969 0812	1978	1987	1996	2005
56 year sequences in the table are separated by an interval of 9 years. Years in bold contained major western New York State - southern Ontario quakes in the year commencing April 20 of those years in this table. Dates expressed as YYYYMMDD. Source of Raw Data: University of Buffalo

The events in the 9/56 year seismic cycle shown in Table D gave much greater significant if they were presented in an 18/56 year grid. Some 15 quakes show up in Table E, where as about 2.7 could have been expected by chance.

Table E 18/56 YEAR CYCLE: WESTERN NY & SOUTHERN ONTARIO QUAKES 9 months commencing April 20
Sq 41		Sq 03		Sq 21		Sq 39		Sq 01
						1855	+ 18	1873 0706	+ 18	1891	+ 18	1909	+ 18	1927 1112
1857 1023 580115	+ 18	1875 760108	+ 18	1893	+ 18	1911	+ 18	1929 0812 1202 1203 300117	+ 18	1947	+ 18	1965 0716 0827 660101	+ 18	1983
1913	+ 18	1931 0422	+ 18	1949	+ 18	1967 0613	+ 18	1985	+ 18	2003
1969 0812	+ 18	1987	+ 18	2005
56 year sequences in the table are separated by an interval of 18 years. Years in bold contained major western New York State - southern Ontario quakes in the year commencing April 14 of those years in this table. Dates expressed as YYYYMMDD. Source of Raw Data: University of Buffalo

QUAKES IN WESTERN NEW YORK & SOUTHERN ONTARIO: 1850-1970 University of Buffalo
Date	Modified Mercalli Intensity	Approx. Location	North Latitude	West Longitude
1857 Oct 23	VI	Buffalo, New York	43.2	78.6
1858 Jan 15	II	Niagara Falls, Ontario	43.1	79.1
1873 Jul 6	VI	Ontario, Canada	43	79.5
1876 Jan 8	II	Near Lockport, New York	43.2	78.7
1879 Aug 21	V	Northwest of Buffalo	43.2	79.2
1927 Nov 12	IV	Niagara Falls, Ontario	43.1	79
1929 Aug 12	VIII	Attica, New York	42.9	78.3
1929 Dec 2	V	Attica, New York	42.8	78.3
1929 Dec 3	IV	Attica, New York	42.8	78.3
1930 Jan 17	I	Attica, New York	42.8	78.3
1931 Apr 22	IV	Buffalo, New York	42.8	78.9
1944 Feb 26	I	Near Buffalo, New York	42.9	78.8
1955 Aug 16	V	Attica, New York	42.9	78.3
1962 Mar 27	V	Niagara Falls, New York	43.1	79.1
1965 Jul 16	IV	Attica, New York	42.9	78.2
1965 Aug 27	IV	Attica, New York	42.9	78.2
1966 Jan 1	Vl	Attica-Varysburg, New York	42.8	78.2
1967 Jun 13	Vl	Attica-Alabama, New York	42.9	78.2
1969 Aug 12	IV	Attica, New York	42.9	78.3
Years in bold contained major New York City quakes in the year commencing April 20 of those years in Table D. Source: Coffman & von Hake, 1973; Buffalo Courier-Express, 1939; Niagara Mohawk Lake Erie Generating Station Report, Volume VIII, 1976. University of Buffalo