9/56 YEAR CYCLE: NEW YORK STATE EARTHQUAKES

APPENDIX 8 NEW YORK STATE EARTHQUAKES

Moon Sun Finance

Appendix for the paper 9/56 year Cycles: Earthquakes & Volcanoes

NEW YORK CITY. Won-Young Kim of Columbia University gave a listing of the significant quakes in the New York City region to 1999. Of the 18 events presented, 10 fell in the 7.5 months beginning August 1 of those years in Table B this appendix, which compared with the 2.8 expected by chance. Remarkably, of the top 7 earthquakes (richter mag => 4.0), 5 occurred in the 9/56 patterns during the four months August to November. About 0.6 could have been expected by chance.

Table A LARGEST EARTHQUAKES NEAR NEW YORK CITY
Richter (ML)	Date	Location	Max. Intensity
5.2	1884 Aug 10	Greater N.Y. City area	VII
5.2	1737 Dec 19	Greater N.Y. City area*	VII
4.9	1783 Nov 30	N. Central N.J.*	VI
4.5	1847	Greater N.Y. City area*	V
4.4	1848 Sep 09	Greater N.Y. City area*	V
4.3	1895 Sep 01	N. Central N.J.	VI
4	1985 Oct 19	Ardsley, N.Y.	IV
3.9	1927 Jun 01	Near Asbury Park, N.J.	VI-VII
3.8	1845 Oct 26	Greater N.Y. City area*	VI
3.8	1938 Aug 23	Central N.J.	VI
3.6	1951 Sep 03	Rockland Co., N.Y.	V
3.5	1937 Jul 19	Western Long Is., N.Y.	IV
3.5	1957 Mar 23	Central N.J.	VI
3.4	1874 Dec 11	Near Nyack & Tarry-town, NY	VI
3.4	1885 Jan 04	Hudson Valley	VI
3.2	1979 Mar 10	Central N.J.	V-VI
2.6	2001 Oct 17	Manhattan, New York City	IV
2.4	2001 Jan 17	Manhattan, New York City	IV
* Location very poorly determined; may be uncertain by 50 miles. ML = Richter local magnitude. Years in bold contained major New York City earthquakes in the 7.5 months commencing August 1 of those years in Table B. Source: Won-Young Kim of Columbia University

Table B NYC QUAKES & 9/56 YEAR GRID: 1800 - 1990
	Sq 32	Sq 41	Sq 50	Sq 03	Sq 12	Sq 21			Sq 48	Sq 01
1783 1130	1792	1801	1810	1819	1828	1837	1846	1855	1864	1873	1882	1891	1900
1839	1848 0909	1857	1866	1875	1884 0810 18850104	1893	1902	1911	1920	1929	1938 0823	1947	1956 19570323
1895 0901	1904	1913	1922	1931	1940	1949	1958	1967	1976	1985 1019	1994	2003
1951 0903	1960	1969	1978 19790310	1987	1996	2005
The 56 year sequences in the table are separated by an interval of 9 years. Years in bold contained major New York City earthquakes in the 7.5 months commencing August 1 of those years in the table. Source of Raw Data: Won-Young Kim of Columbia University

NEW YORK STATE: 1735-1985. The University of Buffalo published a listing of 24 earthquakes in New York State between 1850 and 1985. Of this figure, 16 fell in the 12 months beginning April 18 of those years in the 9/56 year grid in Table D (significant p < .01).

In the 8 56 year sequences on the left hand side of Table D, some 9 major quakes occurred in the 9 months commencing September 1 of those years in the 9/56 year pattern. This compares with the 2.7 that could have been expected by chance.

Table C NEW YORK STATE EARTHQUAKES

Date/Time (utc) Latitude Longitude Magnitude MMI
1853 03/12 07:30 43.7 N 75.5 W -- VI
1855 02/07 04:30 42.0 N 74.0 W -- VI
1857 10/23 20:15 43.2 N 78.6 W 4.30Mfa SC VI
1867 12/18 08:00 44.7 N 75.2 W 4.30Mfa SC VI
1877 11/04 06:56 44.5 N 74.0 W 4.90Mfa SC VII
1878 02/05 16:20 40.8 N 73.9 W -- VI
1884 08/10 19:07 40.6 N 74.0 W 5.50Mfa SET VII
1897 05/28 03:16 44.5 N 73.5 W 4.70Mfa SC VI
1914 02/10 18:31 44.98 N 76.92 W 5.20Mfa SC VII
1916 02/03 04:24 43.0 N 74.0 W 4.10Mfa SC VI
1928 03/18 15:20 44.5 N 74.3 W 4.10Ml EPB VI
1929 08/12 11:24 42.910 N 78.402 W 5.20Mn ST VIII
1931 04/20 19:54 43.471 N 73.785 W 4.70Mn ST VII
1934 04/15 02:58 44.7 N 73.8 W 4.50Ml EPB VI
1935 11/01 06:03 46.87 N 79.05 W 6.20Ms GR VII
1944 09/05 04:38 44.958 N 74.723 W 5.80Mn ST VIII
1944 09/05 08:51 44.999 N 74.652 W 4.50Mn BAS --
1966 01/01 13:23 42.842 N 78.249 W 4.60Mn STR VI
1967 06/13 19:08 42.837 N 78.234 W 4.40Mn STR VI
1974 06/07 19:45 41.595 N 73.951 W 2.90Mn DG VI
1975 06/09 18:39 44.874 N 73.651 W 3.50Mn ST VI
1983 02/26 19:59 41.552 N 73.663 W 2.90Mn GS VI
1983 10/07 10:18 43.938 N 74.258 W 5.10Ml PAL VI
1985 10/19 10:07 40.983 N 73.829 W 4.00Ml PAL VI

* Location very poorly determined; may be uncertain by 50 miles.
ML = Richter local magnitude.
MMI Modified Mercalli Intensity
Years in bold contained major New York State earthquakes in the 12 months commencing April 18 of those years in Table D this appendix.
Source: University of Buffalo.

Table D NEW YORK STATE EARTHQUAKES & 9/56 YEAR PATTERNS
						Sq 54	Sq 05				Sq 41	Sq 50	Sq 03	Sq 12	Sq 21			Sq 48	Sq 01
											1801	1810	1819	1828	1837	1846	1855	1864	1873
					1803	1812	1821	1830	1839	1848	1857	1866	1875	1884	1893	1902	1911	1920	1929
1814	1823	1832	1841	1850	1859	1868	1877 **	1886	1895	1904	1913	1922	1931	1940	1949	1958	1967	1976	1985
1870	1879	1888	1897	1906	1915	1924	1933	1942	1951	1960	1969	1978	1987	1996	2005
1926	1935	1944 **	1953	1962	1971	1980	1989	1998	2007
1982	1991	2000
The 56 year sequences in the table are separated from each other by an interval of 9 years. Years in bold contained major New York State quakes in the 12 months commencing April 18 of those years in this table. Source of Raw Data: University of Buffalo.

WESTERN NEW YORK - SOUTHERN ONTARIO: 1850-1970. The University of Buffalo gave a listing of 19 earthquakes in western New York State and southern Ontario for the 1850-1970 era. Of this figure, 14 occurred in the 9.5 months commencing April 14 of those years in Table F, which compared with the expected frequency of 3.5.

Table E QUAKES IN WESTERN NEW YORK & SOUTHERN ONTARIO: 1850-1970
Date	Modified Mercalli Intensity	Approx. Location	North Latitude	West Longitude
1857 Oct. 23	VI	Buffalo, New York	43.2	78.6
1858 Jan. 15	II	Niagara Falls, Ontario	43.1	79.1
1873 July 6	VI	Ontario, Canada	43	79.5
1876 Jan. 8	II	Near Lockport, New York	43.2	78.7
1879 Aug. 21	V	Northwest of Buffalo	43.2	79.2
1927 Nov. 12	IV	Niagara Falls, Ontario	43.1	79
1929 Aug. 12	VIII	Attica, New York	42.9	78.3
1929 Dec. 2	V	Attica, New York	42.8	78.3
1929 Dec. 3	IV	Attica, New York	42.8	78.3
1930 Jan. 17	I	Attica, New York	42.8	78.3
1931 Apr. 22	IV	Buffalo, New York	42.8	78.9
1944 Feb. 26	I	Near Buffalo, New York	42.9	78.8
1955 Aug. 16	V	Attica, New York	42.9	78.3
1962 Mar. 27	V	Niagara Falls, New York	43.1	79.1
1965 July 16	IV	Attica, New York	42.9	78.2
1965 Aug. 27	IV	Attica, New York	42.9	78.2
1966 Jan. 1	Vl	Attica-Varysburg, New York	42.8	78.2
1967 June 13	Vl	Attica-Alabama, New York	42.9	78.2
1969 Aug. 12	IV	Attica, New York	42.9	78.3
Years in bold contained major New York City quakes in the 9.5 months commencing April 14 of those years in Table F. Source: Coffman & von Hake, 1973; Buffalo Courier-Express, 1939; Niagara Mohawk Lake Erie Generating Station Report, Volume VIII, 1976. University of Buffalo

Table F Wn NY & Sn ONTARIO QUAKES & 9/56 YEAR PATTERNS
Sq 41	Sq 50	Sq 03	Sq 12	Sq 21			Sq 48	Sq 01
						1855	1864	1873 0706	1882	1891	1900	1909
1857 1023 18580115	1866	1875 18760108	1884	1893	1902	1911	1920	1929 0812 1202 1203 19300117	1938	1947	1956	1965 0716 0827 19660101
1913	1922	1931 0422	1940	1949	1958	1967 0613	1976	1985	1994	2003
1969 0812	1978	1987	1996	2005
56 year sequences in the table are separated by an interval of 9 years. Years in bold contained major western New York State - southern Ontario quakes in the 9.5 months commencing April 14 of those years in this table. Source of Raw Data: University of Buffalo

The 9/56 year cycle in Table F are better presented as an 18/56 year grid. All the earthquakes in Table F fall in these 18/56 patterns, thus giving much greater significance.

Table G Wn NY & Sn ONTARIO QUAKES & 18/56 YEAR PATTERNS
Sq 41		Sq 03		Sq 21				Sq 01
						1855	+ 18	1873 0706	+ 18	1891	+ 18	1909
1857 1023 18580115	+ 18	1875 18760108	+ 18	1893	+ 18	1911	+ 18	1929 0812 1202 1203 19300117	+ 18	1947	+ 18	1965 0716 0827 19660101
1913	+ 18	1931 0422	+ 18	1949	+ 18	1967 0613	+ 18	1985	+ 18	2003
1969 0812	+ 18	1987	+ 18	2005
56 year sequences in the table are separated by an interval of 18 years. Years in bold contained major western New York State - southern Ontario quakes in the 9.5 months commencing April 14 of those years in this table. Source of Raw Data: University of Buffalo