9/56 YEAR CYCLE:
EARTHQUAKES & VOLCANOES


MOON - SUN FINANCE


David McMinn

Working Paper

Corrections & Research Suggestions Most Appreciated

A 9/56 year cycle has been established in patterns of US & Western European economic history since the mid 18th century (Funk, 1932; Financial Crises & The Number 56). Financial crises tend to take place every 56 years in sequences, which in turn are inter connected in sub-cycles in multiples of 9 years. Major financial crises fall with statistical significance in these patterns, a finding which contradicts prevailing economic orthodoxy. A big question is whether other phenomena also occur with significance in this cycle. The first link between the 9/56 year cycle and US earthquakes since 1800 was made by McMinn (1994). This paper looks at historical listings of major earthquakes and volcanic eruptions to see if they happen preferentially in patterns of the 9/56 year cycle. Favourable, positive correlates would support the concept of a 9/56 year seismic cycle. 

Alaskan Earthquakes

Please see 9/56 Year Earthquake Cycles: Alaska


Alaskan Volcanic Eruptions

Based a paper by Motyka et al (1993), the ending of major Alaskan eruptions fell with statistical significance (p < .001) in patterns of the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 (see Table A, Appendix 1). This may be spurious as numerous volcanoes ended their eruption in 1987 and the report was written in 1993. To counter possible distortions, all historic Alaskan eruptions were considered. Of the 220 listed by the National Geophysical Data Center (see Table B, Appendix 1), some 58 occurred in the 12 months ended December 31 of those years in the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 (p < .001) (see Table 1). The notable eruption periods within the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 were 1929-31, 1976-80, 1987 and 1996, which accounted for about two thirds of the volcanic eruptions that took place within Series 1 & 2.

Table 1         ALASKAN ERUPTIONS & THE 36 YSC S1/S2: 1790 - 1996

36 Year Sub-Cycles Series 1

Sq 05

 

Sq 41

 

Sq 03

 

Sq 21

 

Sq 01

               

1817

   

1801

+ 18

1819

+ 18

1837

+ 36

1873

1821

+ 36

1857

+ 18

1875

+ 18

1893

+ 36

1929

1877

+ 36

1913

+ 18

1931

+ 18

1949

+ 36

1985

1933

+ 36

1969

+ 18

1987 

+ 18

 2005

 

 

1989

 

           

 

36 Year Sub-Cycles Series 2
Sq 52   Sq 32   Sq 50   Sq 12   Sq 48
                   1808
      1792 + 18 1810 + 18 1828 + 36 1964
1812 + 36 1848 + 18 1866 + 18 1884 + 36 1920
1868 + 36 1904 + 18 1922 + 18 1940 + 36 1976
1924 + 36 1960 + 18 1978 + 18 1996     
1980                 

Series 1 is displaced relative to Series 2 by an interval of 9 years. 
Adding 9 years to Series 2 gives Series 1.
Years containing Alaskan volcanic eruptions have been presented in BOLD.
Source of Raw Data: National Geophysical Data Center.

 

New York State Earthquakes

New York City: 1735-2000. Won-Young Kim of Columbia University gave a listing of the significant quakes in the New York City region to 1999. Of the 18 events presented,  8 fell in the 7.5 months beginning August 1 of those years in the Table B, Appendix 8, which compared with the 2.8 expected by chance. Amazingly, of the top 7 earthquakes (mag => 4.0), five occurred in the 9/56 patterns during the four months August to November. About 0.6 could have been expected by chance. 

New York State: 1735-1985. The University of Buffalo published a listing of 25 earthquakes in New York State, of which 16 fell in 9/56 year patterns as shown in Table E, Appendix 8. This finding was significant (p < .01).

Western New York-Southern Ontario: 1850-1970. The University of Buffalo gave a listing of 19 earthquakes in western New York State and southern Ontario for the 1850-1970 period. 14 occurred in the 9.5 months commencing April 14 of those years in Table F, Appendix 8. This compared with the expected figure of only 3.5.

Record earthquakes in 50 US states

Other US Regions

California Earthquakes
Arizona Earthquakes
Hawaii Volcanoes
Hawaii Earthquakes
New Mexican Earthquakes
Maryland Earthquakes
Ohio Earthquakes
Oklahoma Earthquakes
Oregon Earthquakes
Washington Earthquakes
Northeast USA & adjacent areas
Central USA

Chilean Earthquakes

Servicio Sismologico Universidad de Chile gave a comprehensive listing of Chilean earthquakes of mag =>7.0 since 1570. Of the total 92 earthquakes presented since 1800 (see Appendix 3), 28 appeared in the 12 months beginning February 1 of those years in the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 (see Table 1). The likelihood of this happening by chance was p < .01. 

The map 'Last Big Earthquakes In Chile' gave the last big quakes along the Chilean megathrust. These have been listed from North to South, with quakes emphasised in bold occurring in the 9.5 months beginning March 1 of those years in the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 (see Table 1). 6 of these big quakes occurred in these 36 year sub-cycles, compared with the 1.8 that could be expected by chance.


August 13, 1868
May 9, 1877

December 9, 1950 (Inland)
July 30, 1995
November 10, 1922
April 6, 1943
August 16, 1906
March 3, 1985
December 1, 1928
January 25, 1939
May 22, 1960
December 12, 1949

Chinese Earthquakes

The May 12, 2008 Sichuan earthquake occurred within the 9/56 year cycle.

Chinese earthquakes can also be correlated with the 9/56 year cycle. A listing, compiled from the National Geophysical Data Center, has been given in Appendix 4. For major quakes (magnitude => 7.0) in the period 1900 to 2008, there were some 34 earthquakes, of which 14 occurred in the 10 months beginning July 15 of those years in the combined 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 (see Table 2). This yielded acceptable significance at p < .01.

Table 2          CHINESE QUAKES & THE COMBINED 36 YSC SERIES 1 & 2: 1900 - 2008

Sq 52 Sq 05     Sq 32 Sq 41 Sq 50 Sq 03 Sq 12 Sq 21     Sq 48 Sq 01
                    1902 1911 1920 1929
        1904

1913

1922

1931

1940

1949

1958 1967

1976
**

1985
1924

1933

1942 1951 1960

1969
**

1978

1987 

1996          
1980

1989

1998  2007
**
                   

The 56 year sequences in the table are separated from each other by an interval of 9 years.
Years in bold contained major Chinese earthquakes in the 8.5 months commencing July 15. 
Source of Raw Data
: National Geophysical Data Center Parameters:  China, 1700 to 2004. Mag Over 7.0
The US Geological Survey


Indian Earthquakes.
 

Some 21 earthquakes were presented in the List of Some Significant Earthquakes In India & Its Neighborhood, of which some 13 took place in the 11 months beginning December 1 of those years in Table B Appendix 5. The expected frequency was around 4.8. The reliability of this listing is debatable, as it only covered 'some significant earthquakes'. There is also very limited information for pre 1800 Indian quakes. The Calcutta earthquake of October 11, 1737 fell within these patterns, but it is questionable how severe this event actually was. The claimed death toll of 300,000 compared with the estimated 20,000 people living in the city at the time.

Notable Earthquakes in South Asia presented another historical listing of earthquakes in South Asia, covering India, Pakistan, Nepal and Myanmar (see Table C Appendix 5). Of the total 23 events listed, 16 appeared within 12.5 months commencing August 15 of those years in the 9/56 year grid in Table D Appendix 5 (significant p < .001).

Earthquakes in South East France

SISMALP - French Alps Seismic Network published a comprehensive listing of 'historical quakes which have occurred in south-east (France) and the areas bordering on Switzerland and Italy for which the maximum intensity reached or exceeded VII' (see Table A Appendix 6). For the period to 1750 to 2000, SISMALP gave some 61 earthquakes for the south east region, of which 27 fell in the 9/56 year patterns as presented in Table B Appendix 6. This finding was highly significant at p < .001. Curiously, 12 events happened in only three sequences (Sqs 39, 48 & 01), which compared with the expected frequency of 3.1.

New Zealand Earthquakes

The Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences presented a map of major quakes in New Zealand between 1848 and 2005 (see Appendix 7). These were 'notable shallow (generally less than 30 kms) earthquakes'. Of the total 17 given, 10 showed up in the 9.5 months beginning January 15 of those years in the combined 36 ysc Series 1 & 2. In contrast, the expected frequency was only about 3.4.

The Geonet listed a total of 58 major New Zealand quakes in its data base for the period 1840-1990. Of this total, some 25 appeared in the 12 months beginning January 1 of those years in the combined 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 (significant p < .01) (see Appendix 7). However, if one included the events post 1990, this significance is negated. Additionally, those quakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher also did not yield significance.

Italian Earthquakes

The United States Geological Survey presented a listing of major Italian seismic events since the mid 17th century. Considering quakes of magnitude => 5.9, gave a listing of 16 quakes (see Table A, Appendix 9), of which 9 occurred in the 6 months ended February 15 of those years in Table B Appendix 9. The expected frequency was a mere 1.6.

Philippine Earthquakes

A listing of major earthquakes (1600 - 1900) was composed from a map presented by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology & Seismology. Of the 30 quakes given with a mag => 7.4 (see Appendix 10), 17 appeared in the 12 months commencing February 1 of those years in Table B, Appendix 10, which was highly significant (p < .001). Of the lesser quakes of about 6.9, only one occurred in these patterns and, if these were included,  significance was greatly reduced. Strangely, large Philippine quakes post 1900, as listed by the National Geophysical Data Center, did not fall preferentially in 9/56 year patterns. 

Peruvian Earthquakes

The National Geophysical Data Center gave 55 quakes for Peru since 1600 (see Table A, Appendix 11). Of this total, 25 were found in those 9/56 year patterns presented in Table B, Appendix 11. This was significant at p < .01.

Iranian Earthquakes

The USGS listed 20 major earthquakes for Iran during the 20th century, of which 15 occurred in the 9/56 year patterns as shown in Table B, Appendix 12 (highly significant p < .001).

Japanese Earthquakes

The National Geophysical Data Center listed 65 quakes for Japan since 1890 (see Table B, Appendix 13). Of this total, 22 were found in the 11 months of the years presented in the 9/56 year grid in Table A, Appendix 13 This was only marginally significant at p < .05, where as p < .01 was always preferred throughout the analysis. 

Canadian Earthquakes

Based on listings by the Canadian Geological Survey, major earthquakes could be shown to fall preferentially in 9/56 year patterns, at least for major events (Appendix 14).

Australian Earthquakes

The Seismology Research Centre presented a map of major earthquakes in Australia since about 1880, while the University of Western Australia gave a listing of major earthquakes in Western Australia since 1870. These sources were combined, giving a total of 26 earthquakes (mag => 6.0) for the period 1870-1998 (see Table A, Appendix 15). Of the top 16 quakes (mag => 6.4), 9 occurred in the 12 months commencing July 1 of those years in Table B Appendix 15, which is in contrast to the expected frequency of only 3.1.  Again significance was mainly associated with the most extreme events. For the 10 lesser quakes (magnitude between 6.0 and 6.3), only three fell in Table B, which could be expected by chance. Of the 26 major Australian quakes, 12 occurred in the 9/56 year grid shown in Table B Appendix 15, which was significant (p < .01).

Mexican Earthquakes

Kostoglodov & Pacheco (1999) gave a listing of the major Mexican earthquakes (mag =>6.5) during the 20th century. Of the 182 quakes listed  - 66 occurred in the 12 months ending December 31 of those 9/56 years presented in Table B, Appendix 16, which was significant (p < .01). The researchers also presented a map of major earthquakes in southern Mexico. Of the 44 quakes noted on the map - 20 occurred in the year ended December 31 of those years Table C, Appendix 16 (significant p < .01).

Icelandic Earthquakes

The Icelandic Meteorological Office published a listing of major Icelandic earthquakes between 1706 and 2000. There were 25 events with a magnitude =>6.0, none of which occurred in the four months between September 15 and January 15. Of the total figure, 19 fell in the 8 months beginning January 15 of those years in Table B Appendix 17, a finding that was extremely significant (p < 10-6). Additionally, 10 major quakes were recorded in only three 56 year sequences (Sqs 06, 15 & 24) in the 5.5 months between April 1 and September 15, while only 0.6 could have been expected by chance. Of these 10 events, an amazing 8 happened in the month to September 10, with five in 1896.

The maximum concentration of earthquakes in California, Hawaii and Japan occurred in the 9/56 year cycle around Sequences 05 & 52. Record quakes in California, Hawaii and eastern USA also tended to take place near these sequences. In the Icelandic experience, it was necessary to add a year to give Sequences 06, 15 & 24. Furthermore, Iceland's equal record earthquake occurred in these three key sequences - in Sequence 24 - August 14, 1784 (mag 7.1). (The other 7.1 mag quake happened on January 22, 1910.)

Eastern Mediterranean Earthquakes

According to the The Geophysical Institute of Israel data base, 26 major quakes (mag => 5.50) happened in the eastern Mediterranean region between 1900 and 2005. Of this total, 13 occurred in the 11.5 months ending October 15 of those years in the 9/56 year cycle presented in Table B Appendix 18, a finding which was significant at p < .01.

South African Earthquakes

Geological Survey of South Africa, Seismology Unit gave a comprehensive listing of earthquakes to 1971 in the southwestern Cape Province of South Africa. Of the total 44 earthquakes presented for the period 1800 to 1971 (see Appendix 19), 21 appeared in the 12 months beginning June 15 of those years in the 9/56 year grid shown in Table B Appendix 19. The likelihood of this happening by chance was highly significant at p < .001. Problems arose in regard to the listing's suitability for appraisal and the result may be spurious. Some events were only entered once, yet they clearly involved several notable earthquakes (eg: 4-12, December 1809; June 2, 1811; October 7, 1969 - April 4, 1970; April 15, 1970 - September 19, 1970). These cases were assumed to be just one event as there was no other viable option.

Algerian Earthquakes

The Dept Etudes et Surveillance Sismiques, Algeria listed 19 major earthquakes for Algeria since 1885, of which 15 occurred in the 9/56 year patterns as shown in Table B Appendix 20 (significant at p < .01).

Greek Earthquakes

The National Geophysical Data Center produced a listing of major Greek earthquakes between 1860 and 2001. There were 40 events with a magnitude =>6.5, of which 16 fell in the 10.5 months ending November 20 of those years in Table B Appendix 21, a finding that was highly significant (p < 001).

Argentine Earthquakes

The Instituto Nacional De Prevencion Sismica listed some 59 Argentine earthquakes that occurred between 1780 and 1995. Of this figure, 36 occurred in the 12.5 months beginning January 12 of those 9/56 years in Table B Appendix 22 (extremely significant: p < 10-5).

Major World Earthquakes

Kazuya Fujita of the Michigan State University presented a listing of the 45 biggest earthquakes occurring around the world between 1900 to 2004. Of this total figure, 15 happened within the 8.5 months to August 22 of those years in Table B Appendix 23 (significant p < .01). 

The United States Geological Survey presented a listing of 45 biggest recorded earthquakes (mag =>8.0) occurring around the world between 1700 to 2006. Of this total figure, 15 happened in the 12 months ended June 15 of those years in the 9/56 patterns in Table A, Appendix 24 (significant p < .001). This effect best applied to the biggest recorded earthquakes. Of the 22 largest world quakes (mag =>8.3), 11 appeared in the 9/56 year grid in Table A, Appendix 24, whereas 3.1 could have been expected by chance.

Other Countries.

Listings for several other countries assessed could not be linked statistically (p > .01) to 9/56 year grid patterns. This applied to Japan, Taiwan, Turkey, United Kingdom and several others. Thus there is an anomaly, which is difficult to explain. Why should the 9/56 year seismic trends show up in most countries/regions, but there are various anomalies that do not support the 9/56 year cycle hypothesis. Alas, this issue cannot be resolved based on current limited knowledge. It could be reasonably hypothesised that a 9/56 year seismic cycle shows up worldwide, but with variations according to the location on the Earth's surface. 

The 9/56 Year Moon - Sun Cycle 

Financial crises give far more regular cycles than seismic upheavals. Within the sequences, financial distress often repeats every 56 years and often about the same month within a particular sequence. Then there are the various sub-cycles in multiples of 9 years and associated artifact sub-cycles. Such regularity does not appear to be applicable to earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. This discrepancy may possibly be explained in terms of the different mechanisms involved. Financial crises are believed to arise by lunisolar cycles influencing mass human physiological cycles and thereby activating cyclic changes in the collective mood ranging between optimism and fear. Such a process would give fairly repetitive cycles, with financial crises occurring when there is a sudden shift in market sentiment from optimism to fear. However, geophysical upheavals require a build up of stresses either along active fault lines or under a volcanic vent, before they can be released suddenly in a major cataclysm. It may take decades or even centuries before stresses build up sufficiently before another earthquake/eruption can be activated in a particular region by Moon - Sun tidal resonance.

Nutation Cycle. The ecliptical position of the north (ascending) node on a particular date can be correlated perfectly with the 9/56 year grids. On July 1 for ALL years in the 36 year sub-cycles Series 1 (see Table 1), the north (ascending) node was always sited between 328 and 58 Eo, while, for ALL years in Series 2, the north node appeared between 142 and 231 Eo (see Diagram 1). For such patterns to occur by chance would be infinitely small. One would expect an even ecliptical distribution of the north node, if there was no relationship with 9/56 year patterns. Thus these 9/56 year patterns can be strongly related with the 18.6 year nutation cycle and, by implication, Moon - Sun tidal effects.

 

 DIAGRAM 1    NORTH NODE ECLIPTICAL POSITION & THE 36 YEAR SUB-CYCLES

As on July 1 - All 44 years in the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 - 1760-2000
Source: The Moon, The Sun  & The Number 56

Moon - Sun cycles may also be linked to eclipse cycles. Based on integral and half integral numbers, several Moon - Sun cycles align very closely at 9.0 and 56.0 tropical years. 

HALF SAROS CYCLE

Days Years Lunisolar Cycles
3,287.18  9.000 9.0 Tropical Years
3,292.89   9.016  9.5 Nodical years
3,292.66   9.015  111.5 Synodic Months
3,292.26   9.014 120.5 Tropical Months
3,292.68   9.015  121.0 Nodical Months
56 YEAR CYCLE
Days Years Lunisolar Cycles
20,453.55  56.000  56.0 Tropical Years
20,450.58  55.992  59.0 Nodical Years
20,449.94  55.990  692.5 Synodic Months
20,450.23  55.991  748.5 Tropical Months
20,449.97  55.990  751.5 Nodical Months


18 Year Saros Cycle. Every 223 synodic months (one Saros cycle), the Sun, Moon and the Moon's nodes align in the same relative angles to each other to within a fraction of a degree. The Saros (18.0 tropical years) divided by two gives the Half Saros Cycle. Every 9.0 tropical years or 111.5 synodic months, the Moon's mean relative position is the same angle to the lunar north node, with the Sun 180o on the opposite side of the ecliptic circle.

56 Year Cycle. On the same date every 56, the ecliptical position of the lunar north node moves only 3 Eo clockwise (eg as on July 1: 1761 - NN at 48 Eo; 1817 - 45 Eo; 1873 - 42 Eo; 1929 - 39 Eo; 1985 - 36 Eo). This is a very close alignment of two cycles - the tropical year and lunar nutation. Furthermore, every 56.0 tropical years or 692.5 synodic months, the Sun's relative position forms the same angle to the north lunar with the Moon 180o on the opposite side of the ecliptic circle. The two cycles of 9.0 (half Saros) and 56.0 tropical years result in alternating full/new moons every 111.5 and 692.5 synodic months respectively.

Every 9.0 and 56.0 years the relative angles between the Moon, Sun and lunar north node repeat to within one degree at either 0 or 180 degrees.

The Saros and Half Saros cycles show up in Moon - Sun eclipse cycles as listed by Robert van Gent. He also gave a 112 year cycle, which divided by two yields the 56 year eclipse cycle.

The 2004 Sumatran Great Quake

The author was expecting a possible major seismic event around January 1, 2005. Historically, these were most likely to occur within plus or minus 6 months of January 1 in the years in the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 (see Table 1). This effect seemed to apply most strongly to US patterns since 1700, especially within plus/minus two months of January 1. However, it was Indonesia that experienced a record quake this time around. 

Record quakes and volcanic eruptions often occurred within plus/minus 6 months of January 1 in the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2, as follows:

January 1  Mag Date Event
1700 9.0 January 26, 1700 Great Cascadia quake. Record quake for the contiguous 48 states (USA).
1756 9.0 November 1, 1755 Great Lisbon quake. Record Wn European quake.
6.3 November 15, 1755 Boston quake. Record quake in north east USA
1812 7.9 February 7, 1812 New Madrid quake. Record quake in central USA
1857 7.9 January 9, 1857 Fort Tejon quake. Record Californian quake. 
1868 7.9 April 3, 1868 Record Hawaiian quake.
1873 7.0 December 15, 1872 Lake Chelan, Washington. Record quake in north west USA since 1800.
1884 na August 26, 1883 Massive eruption of Krakatoa (Indonesia). World record volcanic event since 1815.
1920 8.3 June 5, 1920 Equal record Taiwanese quake for the 20th century. 
1924 8.1 September 1, 1923 Great Kwanto quake (Tokyo).
1933 8.9 March, 1933 Largest Japanese quake in the 20th century.
1940 7.1 April 29, 1941 Record onshore Australian quake. Second biggest quake on record.
1960 9.5 May 22, 1960 Great Chilean quake. World record.
7.3 August 18, 1959 Hebgen Lake, Montana. Equal record quake in Wn Mountains (USA).
1980 na May 18, 1980 Mt St Helens erupts. Biggest historic eruption in the contiguous 48 states (USA).

2005

9.0

December 26, 2004

Record quake rocks Indonesia. 


The listing contains many of the most famous events in world seismic/volcanic history. Record quakes in various US regions usually fall in these patterns, within plus two months and minus five months of January 1 in the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2. This applied to Central (February 7, 1812), Wn Mountains (August 18, 1959), California-Nevada (January 9, 1857), North East (September 18, 1756), North West (December 15, 1872) and Hawaii (April 3, 1868) (McMinn, 2004). The exceptions were the 1886 Charleston quake (South East) and the 1964 Alaskan quake.

The Great Sumatran Quake Was Predicted 

The 9.0 magnitude earthquake on December 26 caused utter devastation around the Indian Ocean. This event was accurately predicted by geologists from the University of Madras. The research team, lead by N Venkatanathan and N Rajeshwara Rao, developed a new technique for earthquake forecasting. According to Venkatanathan, "we predicted that the disaster will occur on 26 December 2004 at 00:30 (GMT) with 3.54 N latitude and 97.17E longitude, which is located near the coast of Banyak Island, Sumatra, Indonesia, with a magnitude at around 6 to 7. The actual calamity occurred on 26 December 2004 at 00:58 (GMT), with 3.298 N latitude and 95.779 E longitude, located off the west coast of northern Sumatra". Remarkably, the predicted epicentre was out by a mere 157 km, while the timing was out by only 28 minutes. The main failure was the anticipated 7 magnitude, rather than the realised 9.0. As Venkatanathan commented "we didn't expect the extent of damage it will cause to the Tamilnadu coast (south east India), since we expected the magnitude might be around 7.0, which cannot damage Tamilnadu. We never expected the consequent tidal waves that would have such a devastating effect on the coastal areas of Tamilnadu". The forecast was made four days prior to the event in a paper submitted to the Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi.

Venkatanathan and Rao assessed earthquakes that had taken place over the last 100 years and from this research effort concluded that planetary configurations can trigger earthquakes.
The Indian team had accurately anticipated earthquake occurrences at 27 places around the world, achieving an amazing success rate of 75 to 80 per cent, within a time-frame of plus or minus three to four days. Until this breakthrough, the science of earthquake forecasting was an abysmal failure, with many geoscientists believing that it was impossible to predict these events. Similarly, traditional astrology could not accomplish anything credible in this field. 

The approach is based on the Moon, Sun and one or more of the planets aligning in a line at 0 and 180 degrees (ie around the new or full Moons respectively). The increased tidal pull of these configurations affects the angular momentum of the Earth, resulting in a decrease in the speed of rotation of the Earth's spin and a triggering of an earthquake. However, for an earthquake to occur, two additional factors needed to be assessed - firstly, the distance of the planetary configurations and, secondly, the direction of forces acting at the possible epicenter. Only the planets Mercury to Jupiter were assessed, as Uranus, Neptune and Pluto were considered to be too far away from Earth to be relevant. 

The researchers are currently appraising three key parameters to perfect their methodology - 1) the distance of the epicentre from the planetary position. 2) the direction of the force acting on the possible epicentre. 3) the increase/decrease in the rotational speed of the Earth (angular momentum). Rajeshwara Rao said "we are in the process of refining the technique so as to achieve a better success rate for which we should have a network of inputs from various international research organisations. For this to happen, there was a need for large-scale funding, which could be done through the government". If accuracy can be improved, the technique can potentially save the lives of thousands and reduce property losses substantially. It offers huge benefits to people living in coastal and earthquake prone regions around the world. 

Tsunamis

Given that quakes fall preferentially in 9/56 year patterns, it may reasonably be postulated that the same geological forces give 9/56 year patterns in the timing of large tsunamis. There is some evidence to support such a proposition. 

Chile. Curso Geografia Del Mar listed major tsunamis that occurred on coastal Chile since the mid 16th century. The biggest tsunami events (categories 3 & 4) gave 14 events (see Table A, Appendix T1), of which 8 occurred in the 8.5 months ended those years in Table B, Appendix T1. In contrast, 2.1 could have been expected by chance. Strangely, Region del Biobio experienced no events within the 9/56 patterns. If the full 35 events are considered (all categories 1 to 4), significance is extinguished. This is a reasonably consistent feature - the 9/56 year effect seems most applicable to extreme events whether they are earthquakes, volcanic eruptions or tsunamis.  

Peru. The Tsunami Research Center (University of South Carolina) listed 13 major historic tsunamis along the Peruvian coast. Of this total, some 7 happened in the years in Table B Appendix T2, which compares with the expected frequency of 2.8. Dates were given where ever possible.

July 9, 1586
November 24, 1604
1647
October 20-21, 1687
October 28, 1746
1865
April 16, 1868
1914
1942
1960

1966
February 21, 1996
June 23, 2001

"Of those listed, five were particularly destructive. These include the 1586, 1604, 1687 and 1746 tsunamis, as well as the 1868 Arica tsunami". Of these, only the 1746 event did not fall in Table B, Appendix T2.

Hawaii. The map titled Hawaii Tsunamis listed some 26 historic tsunamis for the island of Hawaii in the period 1815 to 1975, of which 13 fell in the 9/56 year grid shown in Table B Appendix T3. This finding was highly significant (p < .001). Unfortunately, a source for this map could not be given despite a thorough internet search. If anyone is able to assist, please email the author.

Conclusions

The 9/56 year cycle in financial patterns is based on lunisolar cycles, a topic covered extensively in The Moon, The Sun  & The Number 56. Thus major earthquakes could be expected to occur preferentially in the 9/56 year cycle, because of Moon - Sun tidal triggering. Both Alaskan seismic and volcanic upheavals happened preferentially in 9/56 year patterns. A major problem is to explain why Alaskan eruptions fall within the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2, but not Alaskan earthquakes. There is an anomaly, which is difficult to clarify. 9/56 year cycles could also be found in seismic patterns in China, Chile, India, USA, New Zealand and various other countries. Some seismic listings were tested, but yielded no significance between the timing of earthquakes and 9/56 year patterns (p > .01).  This failure applied to Japan, UK, Greece, Turkey, Taiwan and various other countries for whatever reason. More research is warranted in this field to clarify such anomalies.

The key patterns are the 9/56 year cycles as shown in Table 1 & 2. These appear wholly or partly in most of the data samples so far assessed - California, Chile, China, south east France, Hawaii, Iran, Italy, New York State, New Zealand, Peru, South Africa (Cape Province) and so forth. The exceptions were Iceland and Mexico, where a year had to be added to the years in Table 2 and Alaska & the Philippines where a year had to be subtracted. No overall world pattern could be deciphered to date, but hopefully that will become possible as more results come in.

Earthquakes take place with statistical significance in 9/56 year patterns for most countries assessed. When listed chronologically, quakes would appear to be just a random collection of dates without any regular periodicity. Hence the 9/56 year seismic cycle cannot be considered a 'cycle' in the traditional sense of events happening every so many years, months, days and so forth. Rather the This cycle offers little in the way of forecasting earthquakes accurately as it is only statistically valid. Thus, a 9/56 year seismic/eruption cycle, even if proven convincingly, would be more of scientific interest rather than a good predictive tool. At best it may offer insights into windows periods when earthquakes are most likely to happen. Only time and much more research can tell.

Copyright © 2002-2007. David McMinn. All Rights Reserved.

Glossary

Apogee is the point in the Moon's orbit greatest distance to the Earth.
Annual One Day rise or fall is the biggest one day % rise or fall in the year commencing March 1.
Ecliptic.
The plane of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, which is inclined at 23.5 degrees to the plane of the Earth's equator.
Equinoxes
are node points where the plane of the Earth’s equator cuts the ecliptic. At these points, the equatorial ascending node is where the Sun passes from below to above the celestial equator at 0 E
o (0 Aries - vernal or spring equinox at around 20 March) as viewed from the northern hemisphere. The equatorial descending node is where the Sun passes from above to below the celestial equator at 180 Eo (0 Libra - autumnal equinox at around 22 September).
Month, Apogee
(or Anomalistic Month) is the time taken for the Moon to complete one cycle from apogee to apogee and equals 27.5546 days.
Month, Nodical
(or Draconic Month). The time taken for the Moon to complete one cycle north node to north node and is equal to 27.2122 days.
Month, Sidereal.
The time taken for the Moon to travel from a fixed star back to the same fixed star. It is almost exactly equivalent to the tropical month and equals 27.3217 days.
Month, Synodic (or Lunar Month). The time taken for the Moon to complete one cycle new Moon to new Moon and is equal to 29.5306 days.
Month, Tropical.
The time taken for the Moon to complete one 360 degree cycle of the ecliptical  circle and equals 27.3216 days.
Moon's Orbital Plane
is the plane of the Moon's orbit around the Earth, which is inclined by 5 degrees to the ecliptic plane.
Nutation Cycle.
The time taken for the Moon's north node to complete one 360
o cycle retrograde (ie: clockwise) through the ecliptic circle and equals 18.6133 tropical years.
Node.
In astronomy, these are two points (eg: equinoxes, lunar nodes, etc) where the orbit of a heavenly body cuts an astronomical plane or where two astronomical planes intersect.
Node, Moon’s
. The plane of the Moon's orbit is inclined at 5
o to the plane of the Earth's orbit around the Sun (the ecliptic). The lunar nodes are the points where these two planes intersect. The north or ascending node is where the Moon passes from below to above the ecliptic (South to North). The south or descending  node is where the Moon passes from above to below the ecliptic (North to South).
Saros Cycle.
This is the interval between two similar eclipses (every 223 lunar months or 6,585.32 days) when the relative angles between the Sun, Moon and Moon’s nodes repeat to within a degree.
Year, Nodical
(or Eclipse Year). The time taken for the Sun to complete one cycle north node to north node and equals 346.6201 days.
Year, Tropical.
(or Solar Year) Time taken for the Sun to complete one cycle of the ecliptic circle from spring equinox to spring equinox and is equal to 365.2422 days.

 

REFERENCES

Funk, J M. The 56 Year in American Business Activity. Privately published. 1932.
McMinn, David. Mob Psychology & The 56 Year Cycle. The Australian Technical Analysts Association Newsletter. P 28-37. March 1994.
McMinn, David. Market Timing By The Number 56. Twin Palms Publishing. First Edition 2002. Revised 2004.
Stover, C W & Coffman, J L. Seismicity of the United States, 1568-1989 (Revised), U.S. Geological Survey Prof. Paper 1527, 1993.