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Working Paper Corrections &
Research Suggestions Most Appreciated Recently
Published Papers
9/56 Year Cycle: Record
Earthquakes 9/56
Year Cycle: Hurricanes A 9/56 year cycle was first established in patterns of US and Western European financial panics since the mid 18th century (Funk, 1932; 9/56 Year Cycle: Financial Crises). This cycle consists of a grid repeating the intervals of 56 years on the vertical (called sequences) and 9 years on the horizontal (called sub-cycles). Major financial crises tended to cluster with statistical significance in this grid pattern. A big question was whether other phenomena also occurred preferentially in this cycle or did it only apply to financial panics. The first link between the 9/56 year cycle and US earthquakes was made by McMinn (1994). This concept was expanded upon after assessing numerous historical listings of major earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Many examples of a 9/56 year effect could be established for major earthquakes occurring around the world. This topic has been extensively covered on this web page. According to McMinn, the 9/56 year cycle was caused by Moon-Sun tidal effects. Any events clustering in a 9/56 year pattern will always have the lunar ascending node sited in two segments on the ecliptic approximately 180 degrees opposite WITH NO EXCEPTIONS. Events occurring around the same time of year will have apogee located in three ecliptical segments 120 degrees apart WITH NO EXCEPTIONS. The ascending node and apogee are key factors in cycles of terrestrial tides. How this tidal triggering actually functions remains completely unknown. Please refer to Appendix 1 for background information on this Moon-Sun effect. The
56 year sequences have been numbered in accordance with McMinn (1993),
with 1817, 1873, 1929, 1985 being designated as Sequence 01, 1818, 1874,
1930, 1986 as Sequence 02 and so forth. McMinn
(Appendix 2, 2002) presented the full numbering for those
interested. The year of best fit has been applied in the various tables
throughout the text.
Alaskan Earthquakes
Please see 9/56
Year Cycles: Alaskan Earthquakes
Based a paper by Motyka et
al (1993), the ending of major Alaskan eruptions fell with statistical
significance (p < .001) in patterns of the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 (see Table
A, Appendix 1). This may be spurious as numerous volcanoes
ended their eruption in 1987 and the report was written in 1993. To counter
possible distortions, all historic Alaskan
eruptions were considered. Of the 220 listed by the National Geophysical
Data Center (see Table B, Appendix 1), some
58 occurred in the 12 months ended December 31 of those
years in the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 (p < .001) (see Table 1). The notable eruption periods
within the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 were 1929-31, 1976-80, 1987 and 1996,
which accounted for about two thirds of the volcanic eruptions that took
place within Series 1 & 2.
New York State Earthquakes New York City. Won-Young Kim of Columbia University gave a listing of the significant quakes in the New York City region to 1999. Of the 18 events presented, 11 fell in the 12 months beginning June 1 of those years in Table B, Appendix 8 (significant p < .01). Remarkably, of the top 11 earthquakes (mag => 3.6), 7 occurred in these 9/56 patterns during the four months beginning August 1. The 8th rank quake also occurred in Table A, but on June 1, 1927. New York State: 1735-1985. The University of Buffalo published a listing of 24 earthquakes in New York State between 1850 and 1985. Of this figure, 16 fell in the 12 months beginning April 20 of those years in the 9/56 year grid in Table B Appendix 8 (significant p < .01). Western New York-Southern Ontario: 1850-1970. The University of Buffalo gave a listing of 19 earthquakes in western New York State and southern Ontario for the 1850-1970 era. Of this figure, 15 occurred in the year commencing April 20 of those years in Table D Appendix 8, which compared with the expected frequency of about 5.1. Other US Regions Arizona Earthquakes, Servicio
Sismologico Universidad de Chile gave a comprehensive listing of
Chilean earthquakes of mag =>7.0 since 1570. Of the total 95
earthquakes presented for the 1800 - 2009 era, 42 appeared in the 12
months beginning March 1 of those years in the 9/56 year grid shown in
Table A Appendix 3
(significant p < .01).
Some 23 earthquakes were presented in the Earthquake History of India and How safe are we?, of which 10 took place preferentially in the 8 months ended August 30 of those years in the 9/56 year grid presented in Table A Appendix 5. The expected frequency was around 2.7. This grid was expanded to include 14 56 year sequences (see Table B Appendix 5), which contained 13 major earthquakes in the 12 months ended August 30 of those years in the table (significant p < .01). Earthquakes in South East France - Appendix 6 New Zealand Earthquakes The Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences presented a map of New Zealand major earthquakes (mag =>6.9) from 1840 to 2010, which were 'notable shallow earthquakes' (generally less than 30 kms depth). Of the 21 given, 12 showed up in the year beginning January 1 of those years in the 9/56 year cycle shown in Table A Appendix 7 (significant p < .01). More remarkably, 13 major New Zealand earthquakes happened in the 1840 - 1950 era, of which 10 events appeared in Table A, where as about 3.3 could have been expected chance. Italian Earthquakes - Appendix 9. Philippine Earthquakes - Appendix 10. Peruvian Earthquakes - Appendix 11. Iranian Earthquakes The USGS
listed 20 major earthquakes for Iran during the 20th century, of which
15 occurred in 12 months beginning September 1 of those years in the
9/56 year patterns (see Table A, Appendix 12)
(significant at p < .001). Australian Earthquakes Mexican Earthquakes - Appendix 16. Icelandic Earthquakes The Icelandic Meteorological Office published a listing of major Icelandic earthquakes between 1706 and 2000. There were 25 events with a magnitude =>6.0, none of which occurred in the four months beginning September 10. Of the total figure, 20 fell in the year beginning January 15 of those years in the 9/56 year grid in Table A, Appendix 17 (significant p < .001). In Table A, the events clustered into the 3.5 months beginning January 15 (9) and the month beginning August 10 (9), with anomalies on June 2, 1934, as well as January 13 , 1976 of the following year. Eastern Mediterranean Earthquakes According to the The Geophysical Institute of Israel data base, 26 major quakes (mag => 5.30) happened in the eastern Mediterranean region between 1900 and 2005. Of this total, 13 occurred in the year ending October 15 of those years in the 9/56 year cycle presented in Table A Appendix 18 (significant p < .01). South African Earthquakes - Appendix 19. Algerian Earthquakes - Appendix 20. Greek Earthquakes Argentine Earthquakes Major World Earthquakes Other Countries. Listings for several other countries assessed could not be linked statistically (p > .01) to 9/56 year grid patterns. This applied to Japan, Taiwan, Turkey, United Kingdom and several others. Thus there is an anomaly, which is difficult to explain. Why should the 9/56 year seismic trends show up in most countries/regions, but various anomalies arise that do not support the 9/56 year cycle effect. Alas, this issue cannot be resolved based on current limited knowledge. It could be reasonably hypothesised that a 9/56 year seismic cycle shows up worldwide, but with variations according to the location on the Earth's surface. Tsunamis Chile. Curso Geografia Del Mar listed major tsunamis that occurred on coastal Chile since the mid 16th century. The biggest tsunami events (categories 3 & 4) gave 14 events (see Table A, Appendix T1), of which 8 occurred in the 8.5 months ended those years in Table B, Appendix T1. In contrast, 2.1 could have been expected by chance. Strangely, Region del Biobio experienced no events within the 9/56 patterns. If the full 35 events are considered (all categories 1 to 4), significance is extinguished. This is a reasonably consistent feature - the 9/56 year effect seems most applicable to extreme events whether they are earthquakes, volcanic eruptions or tsunamis. Peru. The Tsunami Research Center (University of South Carolina) listed 13 major historic tsunamis along the Peruvian coast. Of this total, some 7 happened in the years in Table B Appendix T2, which compares with the expected frequency of 2.8. Dates were given where ever possible. July 9, 1586 "Of those listed, five were particularly destructive. These include the 1586, 1604, 1687 and 1746 tsunamis, as well as the 1868 Arica tsunami". Of these, only the 1746 event did not fall in Table B, Appendix T2. Hawaii. The map titled Hawaii Tsunamis listed some 26 historic tsunamis for the island of Hawaii in the period 1815 to 1975, of which 13 fell in the 9/56 year grid shown in Table B Appendix T3. This finding was highly significant (p < .001). Unfortunately, a source for this map could not be given despite a thorough internet search. If anyone is able to assist, please email the author. Conclusions The 9/56 year seismic cycle could be established for many countries and regions around the world. Thus the concept was firmly supported The Moon, The Sun & The Number 56. Thus major earthquakes could be expected to occur preferentially in the 9/56 year cycle, because of Moon - Sun tidal triggering. Both Alaskan seismic and volcanic upheavals happened preferentially in 9/56 year patterns. A major problem is to explain why Alaskan eruptions fall within the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2, but not Alaskan earthquakes. There is an anomaly, which is difficult to clarify. 9/56 year cycles could also be found in seismic patterns in China, Chile, India, USA, New Zealand and various other countries. Some seismic listings were tested, but yielded no significance between the timing of earthquakes and 9/56 year patterns (p > .01). This failure applied to Japan, UK, Greece, Turkey, Taiwan and various other countries for whatever reason. More research is warranted in this field to clarify such anomalies. Earthquakes take place with statistical significance in 9/56 year patterns for most countries assessed. When listed chronologically, quakes would appear to be just a random collection of dates without any regular periodicity. Hence the 9/56 year seismic cycle cannot be considered a 'cycle' in the traditional sense of events happening every so many years, months, days and so forth. Currently, this cycle offers little in the way of forecasting earthquakes accurately, as it is only statistically valid. Thus, a 9/56 year seismic/eruption cycle, even if proven convincingly, would be more of scientific interest rather than a good predictive tool. At best it may offer insights into windows periods when earthquakes are most likely to happen. Even so this could potentially save many lives. Only time and much more research can tell if this was achivable.. Copyright
© 2002-2007. David McMinn. All Rights Reserved. Glossary References Appendix
1 Financial crises give far more regular cycles than seismic upheavals. Within the sequences, financial distress often repeats every 56 years and often about the same month within a particular sequence. Then there are the various sub-cycles in multiples of 9 years and associated artifact sub-cycles. Such regularity does not appear to be applicable to earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. This discrepancy may possibly be explained in terms of the different mechanisms involved. Financial crises are believed to arise by lunisolar cycles influencing mass human physiological cycles and thereby activating cyclic changes in the collective mood ranging between optimism and fear. Such a process would give fairly repetitive cycles, with financial crises occurring when there is a sudden shift in market sentiment from optimism to fear. However, geophysical upheavals require a build up of stresses either along active fault lines or under a volcanic vent, before they can be released suddenly in a major cataclysm. It may take decades or even centuries before stresses build up sufficiently before another earthquake/eruption can be activated in a particular region by Moon - Sun tidal resonance. Nutation Cycle. The ecliptical position of the north (ascending) node on a particular date can be correlated perfectly with the 9/56 year grids. On July 1 for ALL years in the 36 year sub-cycles Series 1 (see Table 1), the north (ascending) node was always sited between 328 and 58 Eo, while, for ALL years in Series 2, the north node appeared between 142 and 231 Eo (see Diagram 1). For such patterns to occur by chance would be infinitely small. One would expect an even ecliptical distribution of the north node, if there was no relationship with 9/56 year patterns. Thus these 9/56 year patterns can be strongly related with the 18.6 year nutation cycle and, by implication, Moon - Sun tidal effects.
DIAGRAM 1 NORTH NODE ECLIPTICAL POSITION & THE 36 YEAR SUB-CYCLES As on July 1 - All 44
years in the 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 - 1760-2000 Moon - Sun cycles may also be linked to eclipse cycles. Based on integral and half integral numbers, several Moon - Sun cycles align very closely at 9.0 and 56.0 tropical years.
56 Year Cycle. On the same date every 56, the ecliptical position of the lunar north node moves only 3 Eo clockwise (eg as on July 1: 1761 - NN at 48 Eo; 1817 - 45 Eo; 1873 - 42 Eo; 1929 - 39 Eo; 1985 - 36 Eo). This is a very close alignment of two cycles - the tropical year and lunar nutation. Furthermore, every 56.0 tropical years or 692.5 synodic months, the Sun's relative position forms the same angle to the north lunar with the Moon 180o on the opposite side of the ecliptic circle. The two cycles of 9.0 (half Saros) and 56.0 tropical years result in alternating full/new moons every 111.5 and 692.5 synodic months respectively. Every 9.0 and 56.0 years the relative angles between the Moon, Sun and lunar north node repeat the angles 0 or 180 degrees to within one degree. The Saros and Half Saros cycles show up in Moon Sun eclipse cycles as listed by Robert van Gent. He also gave a 112 year cycle, which divided by two yields the 56 year eclipse cycle. Apogee is the point (given in ecliptical degrees) in the lunar orbit, where the Moon is the greatest distance from Earth, while perigee is the least distance. In the lunar apse cycle, the apogee – perigee axis (apsides) rotates counter clockwise around the ecliptical circle from spring equinox to spring equinox every 8.8474 tropical years. The apsides axis is very important in oceanic tides on Earth. When the full/new Moon is at apogee, the amplitude of tides in New York Harbor is 50% lower than when the full/new Moon is at perigee. Apogee could be expected to play a key role in any Moon Sun seismic effect. Apogee takes 5.995 tropical years to complete one cycle ascending node to ascending node. The 18.0 year Saros eclipse cycle divided by 6 produced the integral number three and the 9 year Half Saros divided by 6 gave 1.5 (one plus a half). The 56 year cycle divided by 6 gave 9.3333 tropical years (9 plus one third). Additionally, 9.0 divided by the 8.8474 year apse cycle yielded 1.02, while 56.0 divided by the apse cycle gave 6.33 (6 plus one third). For apogee, there was an emphasis on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd harmonics in the 9/56 year grid and this may also show up in tidal cycles. In the 9/56 year grid, apogee will be located in three segments approximately 120o apart on the ecliptical circle with no exceptions. |
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