FINANCIAL PANICS, US SECURITY THREATS
& MOON SUN ANOMALIES

Moon Sun Finance

 David McMinn



One of the great disasters of recent times was the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001. This dramatic event had a major impact on world financial markets, with closure of the New York market for four trading days. One would assume that this attack was a random event outside Moon Sun cycles of mass psychology. Strangely there are indications that this may not be the case. US security events, which impact directly upon the stock market, may occur within Moon Sun cycles. They tend to take place with lunar phase after the first and third quarters, a finding which is difficult to dismiss as mere coincidence. The findings were based on the angles 0o and 180o, which emphasized the importance of the 1st and 2nd lunisolar harmonics, the key harmonics found in oceanic tides.

Background. A glossary has been included (see subsequently) for those readers not familiar with the terms used in this assessment. The abbreviation Ao is used to denoted angular degrees between the Moon and Sun (lunar phase) as viewed on Earth. Eo is used to denote ecliptical degrees which gives the the position of Moon or Sun on the ecliptical circle. Annual one day (AOD) falls in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) were taken as the biggest % one day fall in the year commencing March 1. 

DJIA AOD Falls: August 1 - September 15

There have been 7 major DJIA AOD falls (=>4.50%) in the 1.5 months ending September 15 between 1896 and 2007. The AOD fall for 2001 was recorded on September 17, when lunar phase was 058 Ao. However, the market was closed for four trading days after the attack on the World Trade Center. On the day of the attack (September 11), lunar phase was at 281 Ao, which was almost 180o opposite to the 6 other AOD falls in the 1.5 months being considered. Lunar phase for these 6 events all ranged between 090 and 135 Ao with no exceptions. Although the sample was tiny, the pattern would be very unlikely to happen by chance.

AOD Falls (a) % AOD
Fall 		Sun
Eo 		Moon
Eo 		Phase
Ao
September 11, 2001 na 169 090 281
         
Aug 04, 1919 (a) -4.79 131 231 100
Aug 07, 1919 (a) -4.71 134 267 133
Aug 12, 1932 -8.40 140 274 134
September 3, 1946 -5.56 161 252 091
September 11, 1986 -4.61 169 264 095
August 31, 1998 -6.63 158 265 107
(a) DJIA AOD falls (=>4.50%) occurring in the 1.5 months to September 15 for the 1896 to 2005 era.
(b) In 1919, August 4 & August 7 recorded almost identical DJIA falls of -4.79% and -4.71% respectively and thus both have been presented. 


The intervals between September 11, 2001 and the AOD falls in 1946, 1986 and 1998 all took place in half integral numbers of synodic months and tropical months and integral numbers of tropical years. None of these intervals of 3, 15 and 55 tropical years can be linked to established eclipse cycles.

Intervals btn Sep 11, 2001 & AOD Falls Synodic Months Tropical Months Tropical 
Years
September 3, 1946 680.55 735.58 55.02
September 11, 1986 185.54 200.54 15.00
August 30, 1998 37.49 40.52 3.03


Other Security Panics (AOD Falls > -4.50%)

Only one other war-induced panic caused the New York stock market to close. On July 31, 1914, the DJIA fell 6.65 % due to the outbreak of WW I and the market was closed and not reopened until December 14. On July 31, 1914, lunar phase was at 99 Ao or almost exactly 180o opposite to lunar phase on September 11, 2001. 

Other major DJIA AOD falls (=>4.00%), arising from security events, happened on the dates presented in Table 1. The 8 security induced panics gave 10 AOD falls, of which 8 had lunar phase within the ranges 087 - 137 Ao and 280 - 295 Ao. This compares with the 1.8 could have been expected by chance.  The two anomalies occurred in 1917 & 1940, when two almost identical AOD falls were recorded in each of these years (see Table 1). 

Table 1    LUNAR PHASE, AOD FALLS & US SECURITY THREATS
DJIA AOD Fall US Security Threat % Fall Sun
Eo		 Moon
Eo		 Phase
Ao
Sep 11, 2001 WTC terrorist attack na 169 090 281*
DJIA AOD Falls > -4.50%
Jul 30, 1914 Beginning of WW I -6.65 127 226 099*
May 07, 1915# Sinking of the Lusitania -4.54 046 322 288*
Feb 01, 1917 Germany to attack neutral shipping. -7.24 312 073 121*
Nov 01, 1917 (a) Bolshevik Revolution in Russia -4.16 219 071 212
Nov 08, 1917 (a) -4.14 226 157 291*
May 14, 1940 (b) Fall of France -6.76 054 142 088*
May 21, 1940 (b) -6.78 060 242 182
Jun 26, 1950# Outbreak of Korean War -5.65 095 231 136*
Sep 26, 1955 President's heart attack -6.54 183 301 118*
#The events in 1915 & 1950 were also listed by the Dow Jones Indexes.
(a) In 1917, November 1 & November 8 recorded almost identical DJIA falls of -4.16% and 4.14% respectively and thus both have been presented. 
(b) In 1940, May 14 & 21 recorded almost identical DJIA falls of -6.76% and -6.78% respectively and thus both have been presented.


Interestingly, President McKinley was shot on Friday September 6, 1901 and the DJIA recorded a major fall of -4.43% the following day. On the day of the shooting, the Sun and Moon on September 6 were at 163 and 088 Eo respectively, while lunar phase was at 285 Ao or virtually the same phase recorded on September 11.

Security Panics Listed By Dow Jones Indexes

 Dow Jones Indexes gave a listing of notable US security events and their impact on the movement of the DJIA. All events inducing a one day DJIA fall over -1.50% have been presented in Table 2. Of the 12 events, 7 occurred with lunar phase between 280 and 300 Ao, as well as between 107o and 137 Ao. This was in contrast to the 1.7 that could have been expected by chance. For the 6 falls between -0.50% and -1.50%, no events happened with lunar phase in these two ranges. 

The US entry into WW II happened with the Pearl Harbor attack on Sunday December 7, 1941. However, the DJIA only declined -3.50% the following day when the market was opened, which was not considered to be a major panic. One would have expected a greater decline in the DJIA, given the implications and surprise of the attack.

Table 2        LUNAR PHASE, THE DJIA & US SECURITY THREATS
Date US Security Threat %
Fall		 Sun
Eo		 Moon
Eo		 Phase
Ao
One Day Fall >1.50%
Feb 15, 1898 USS Maine explodes in Havana harbour (a).  -2.14 327 259 292*
May 07, 1915# Sinking of the Lusitania -4.54 046 322 288*
Dec 08, 1941 Pearl Harbor attack -3.50 256 130 234
Jun 26, 1950# Outbreak of Korean War -5.65 095 231 136*
Oct 04, 1957 Sputnik launched -2.01 191 325 134*
Oct 22, 1962 Cuban missile crisis -1.85 209 145 296*
Nov 22, 1963 Kennedy assassination (b) -2.89 240 310 070
Jul 27, 1974 Nixon impeached -1.74 124 233 109*
Aug 08, 1974 Nixon resigns -1.59 136 017 241
Dec 15, 1989 Panama & Noriega -1.53 264 124 220
Aug 06, 1990 Beginnings of Iraq War (c) -3.32 134 315 181
Sep 11, 2001 WTC terrorist attack na 169 090 281*
One Day Falls >0.50% <1.50%
Aug 04, 1964 Tonkin Gulf attack -0.90 132 090 318
Feb 07, 1973 Watergate investigations -1.15 319 011 052
Mar 01, 1974 Senior WH aides indicted -1.00 341 070 089
Nov 04, 1979 Iran crisis -0.77 222 048 185
Oct 25, 1983 Hostage in Grenada -0.69 212 078 226
Oct 07, 2001 America strikes back -0.57 194 074 240
# Events also listed in Table 1.
* Events that occurred with lunar phase between 280 & 300 Ao, as well as between 107o & 137 Ao.
(a) Beginnings of the Spanish American War.
(b) The market closed at around 2.00 pm on the day.
(c) The actual war commenced on Thursday August 2, 1990 when the Sun (130 Eo) and Moon (263 Eo), with lunar phase at 133 Ao.
NB: If the event occurred after the US market closed or on a non-trading day, the % change for next trading day has been given.
Source of Security Dates: Dow Jones Indexes


Spring DJIA AOD Falls

Lunar phase angles for the spring AOD falls (=> 4.50%) in 1915, 1938 and 1962 occurred between 288 & 295 Ao, which was very similar for that recorded for September 11 (281 Ao).  Two spring AOD falls had lunar phase in the range 085 to 130 Ao, although three other spring AOD falls in 1901, 1940 and 1988 did not align within these ranges. 

DJIA AOD Fall %
Fall		 Sun
Eo		 Moon
Eo		 Phase
Ao
Sep 11, 2001 na 169 090 281
         
May 07, 1915 4.54 046 322 288*
Mar 25, 1938 5.24 004 293 289*
May 28, 1962 5.71 067 002 295*
         
May 09, 1901 -6.05 048 295 247
May 14, 1940 (a) 6.76 054 142 088*
May 21, 1940 (a) 6.78 060 242 182
Apr 14, 1988 4.82 025 001 336

Apr 14, 2000

 5.64 025 155 130*
(a) In 1940, May 14 & 21 recorded almost identical DJIA falls of -6.76% and -6.78% respectively and both have been included.
All DJIA AOD falls (=>4.50%) recorded in the months March, April & May from 1896 to 2008. 

 

Curiously, the interval between September 11 and the spring DJIA AOD falls for 1915, 1938, 1940 (May 14), 1962 and 2000 all occurred in integral and half integral numbers of synodic months. The exceptions were the AOD falls for 1940 (May 21) and 1988.

Intervals btn Sep 11, 2001
& Spring AOD Falls		 Synodic Months
May 07, 1915 1068.01
March 25, 1938 784.98
May 14, 1940 758.54
May 21, 1940 (a) 758.30*
May 28, 1962 485.94
April 14, 1988 (a) 165.86*
April 14, 2000 17.44
* Deviated markedly from integral and half integral numbers.
(a) In 1940, May 14 & 21 recorded almost identical DJIA falls of 6.76% and 6.78% respectively and both have been presented. Lunar phase half way between these two falls equals 135 Ao very closely approximating to that for the 2000 AOD fall.


September 11: The Chilean & US Events

 The date September 11 is deeply etched into the histories of both Chile and the USA. In 1973, the socialist Chilean government was overthrown in a CIA backed right wing military coup. September 11, 1973 was a shameful day in US history, as the CIA was directly involved in the overthrow of a free democracy. It resulted in the death of the Chilean socialist president Salvadore Allende and mass murder of thousands of innocent people. What goes around comes around and 28 years later the USA experienced similar events in its own country. Islamic terrorists attacked the epicentre of world capitalism, resulting in the collapse of the WTC towers and the deaths of 3000 people. The coincidences between the September 11 attacks in Santiago and New York were noteworthy (see Section 7.5, McMinn, 2006). They both happened on the same longitude (to within 4o) and on a Tuesday morning on the same date exactly 28 years apart. 56 divided by two gives 28. The number 56 has been shown to be a highly significant in cycle theory (David McMinn).
Conclusions

Due to small sample sizes, no firm conclusions may be drawn on the Moon Sun anomalies outlined in this text. However, a perplexing problem is explaining why a combination of major security events and DJIA one day falls were most likely to happen with lunar phase just after the first and third quarters. If the security threat did not take place after the first and third quarters, major falls in the DJIA usually were not realised. The limited findings to date are certainly interesting, but no theoretical basis can be offered to account for such findings. Further research is warranted in this area to determine whether there is some profound underlying causal link between US security events, significant DJIA movements and Moon Sun cycles. 

Copyright © 2008. David McMinn. All Rights Reserved.


References

Dow Jones Indexes. The Dow Performance At the Onset of Major National Security Events.
http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showavgevents 
McMinn, David. Market Timing By The Moon & The Sun. Privately published. 2006.

Glossary

Month, Synodic (or Lunar Month). The time taken for the Moon to complete one cycle new Moon to new Moon and is equal to 29.5306 days. 
Month, Tropical. The time taken for the Moon to complete one 260 cycle of the ecliptical circle from spring equinox to sprinf equinox and is equal to 29.5306 days. 
Year, Tropical (or Solar Year) Time taken for the Sun to complete one cycle of the ecliptic circle from spring equinox to spring equinox and is equal to 365.2422 days.  

          

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  
                     

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