9/56 YEAR CYCLE: NEW ZEALAND EARTHQUAKES

APPENDIX 7

9/56 YEAR CYCLE: NEW ZEALAND EARTHQUAKES

Appendix for the paper 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes & Volcanoes.

The Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences presented a map of major quakes in New Zealand for the 1848 to 2007 epoch (see Table A this appendix of major quakes > 6.9 mg), which were 'notable shallow earthquakes' (generally less than 30 kms depth). Of the 17 given, 11 showed up in the 11 months beginning January 20 of those years in the combined 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 (see Table B this appendix). In contrast, the expected frequency was only 3.4.

In the following 18/56 grid, five New Zealand quakes happened between January 23 & March 09, with one anomaly on June 17, 1929.

Sq 03		Sq 21				Sq 01
1819	+18	1837	+ 18	1855 0123	+ 18	1873
1875	+ 18	1893 0212	+18	1911	+ 18	1929 0309
1931 0202 0213	+ 18	1949	+ 18	1967	+ 18	1985
1987	+18	2005

In the following 18/56 grid, four New Zealand quakes happened between June 24 & October 19.

Sq 52				Sq 32
1812	+ 18	1830	+ 18	1848 1016
1868 1019	+ 18	1886	+ 18	1904
1924	+ 18	1942 0624 0802	+ 18	1960
1980	+ 18	1998

Table A NEW ZEALAND EARTHQUAKES: 1848 - 2007
Mag	Date	Location
8.1	January 23, 1855	Wairarapa
7.8	June 17, 1929	Murchison
7.8	February 2, 1931	Hawke's Bay
7.6	March 5, 1934	Pahiatua
7.5	October 16, 1848	Marlborough
7.5	February 23, 1863	Hawke's Bay
7.5	October 19, 1868	Cape Farwell
7.3	September 1, 1888	North Canterbury
7.3	December 20, 2007
7.3	February 13, 1931	Hawke's Bay
7.2	June 24, 1942	Wairarapa
7.2	November 22, 2004	Puysegur Trench
7.1	March 9, 1929	Arthur's Pass
7.1	May 24, 1968	Inangahua
7.1	August 22, 2003	Fiordland
7.0	August 2, 1942	Wairarapa
7.0	February 6, 1995	East Cape
6.9	February 12, 1893	Nelson
Earthquakes in bold occurred in the 9.5 months beginning January 15 of those years in the combined 36 ysc Series 1 & 2 in Table B. Source of Raw Data: Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences

Table B NZ QUAKES & THE COMBINED 36 YSC SERIES 1 & 2: 1800 - 1990
Sq 52	Sq 05			Sq 32	Sq 41	Sq 50	Sq 03	Sq 12	Sq 21			Sq 48	Sq 01
							1819	1828	1837	1846	1855 0123	1864	1873
1812	1821	1830	1839	1848 1016	1857	1866	1875	1884	1893 0212	1902	1911	1920	1929 0309 0617
1868 1019	1877	1886	1895	1904	1913	1922	1931 0202 0213	1940	1949	1958	1967	1976	1985
1924	1933	1942 0624 0802	1951	1960	1969	1978	1987	1996	2005
1980	1989	1998	2007 1220
The 56 year sequences in the table are separated from each other by an interval of 9 years. Years in bold contained major NZ earthquakes in the 11 months commencing January 20 of those years in the combined 36 ysc Series 1 & 2. Source of Raw Data: Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences

The Geonet listed a total of 58 major New Zealand quakes in its data base for the period 1840-1990 (see Table C this appendix). Of this total, some 27 appeared in the 12 months beginning January 1 of those years in Table D (significant p < .01). However, this significance is negated, if the events post 1990 are included. Additionally, those quakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher also did not yield significance (p >.01).

Table C NEW ZEALAND QUAKES & THE COMBINED 36 YSC SERIES 1 & 2
MAG	YEAR	MONTH	DAY	LOCATION
	1815
	1817
	1826
	1835
	1838
7.5	1843	7	8	Wanganui
6.5	1846	11	18
7.1	1848	10	15	Marlborough (I)
6.8	1853	1	1
8.0	1855	1	23	Wairarapa
7.5	1863	2	22
7.0	1868	10	18	Cape Farewell
6.5	1881	6	25
6.8	1881	12	4
7.0	1888	8	31	North Canterbury
7.0	1888	10	23
6.6	1893	2	11	Nelson
6.5	1895	8	18
7.0	1897	12	7
6.9	1901	11	15	Cheviot
6.7	1904	8	8	Cape Turnagain
6.7	1914	10	6	East Cape I
6.5	1914	10	28	East Cape II
7.2	1914	11	22	Bay of Plenty
6.6	1917	8	5	Wairarapa
6.8	1918	11	3	Puysegur Bank
7.0	1921	6	28	Hawke's Bay
6.7	1927	2	25
7.1	1929	3	9	Arthur's Pass
7.8	1929	6	16	Buller
7.8	1931	2	2	Hawke's Bay
7.3	1931	2	13	Hawke's Bay (aftershock)
6.75	1931	9	21	Bay of Plenty
6.9	1932	9	15	Wairoa
7.4	1934	3	5	Pahiatua
6.5	1936	5	23
7.0	1938	12	16	Charles Sound
7.0	1939	2	10
6.5	1942	6	24	Wairarapa I
6.8	1942	8	1	Wairarapa II
7.1	1942	10	6
6.5	1943	2	17
7.3	1943	9	26
6.7	1949	2	13
6.7	1949	12	18
7.1	1951	3	23
7.2	1953	9	29	Bay of Plenty
6.8	1957	2	9	Southern Kermadec Ridge
6.6	1958	9	22
6.7	1959	6	27
6.6	1960	3	27
6.5	1960	3	27
7.0	1961	6	18
6.6	1964	8	5
6.5	1965	12	8	Cape Runaway
6.7	1968	5	23	Inangahua
6.8	1970	1	8
7.0	1973	1	5	Taumarunui
6.6	1976	5	4	Milford Sound
7.0	1985	9	26
6.6	1989	5	25
6.5	1990	3	22
6.8	1990	5	20
6.8	1992	5	27	Marlborough
6.7	1992	12	14
6.7	1993	8	10	Secretary Island
6.5	1993	8	13
6.7	1994	6	18	Arthur's Pass
7.0	1995	2	5	Offshore East Cape
6.6	1995	2	10
6.7	1995	6	3
6.6	1995	9	19
7.1	1997	5	3
7.9	1997	5	25
6.8	1998	4	20
7.0	1999	4	20
6.9	1999	10	25
6.5	2001	5	24
7.1	2001	8	21
7.0	2003	8	21	Fiordland
7.3	2004	11	22	Puysegur Trench
Events in bold occurred in the 12 months beginning January 15 of those years in the combined 36 ysc Series 1 & 2. Source: Geonet Parameters: 1800-2004. Mag: =>6.5

Table D NZ QUAKES & 9/56 YEAR CYCLE: 1800 - 1990
Sq 52	Sq 05			Sq 32	Sq 41	Sq 50	Sq 03	Sq 12	Sq 21			Sq 48	Sq 01
							1819	1828	1837	1846	1855	1864	1873	1882
1812	1821	1830	1839	1848	1857	1866	1875	1884	1893	1902	1911	1920	1929 **	1938
1868	1877	1886	1895	1904	1913	1922	1931 ***	1940	1949 **	1958	1967	1976	1985	1994
1924	1933	1942 ***	1951	1960 **	1969	1978	1987	1996	2005
1980	1989	1998
The 56 year sequences in the table are separated from each other by an interval of 9 years. Years in bold contained major NZ earthquakes in the 12 months commencing January 15 of those years in the table. Source of Raw Data: Geonet