Appendix 7  

HAWAIIAN EARTHQUAKES: 1860-2006

Moon Sun Finance

David McMinn

Appendix for the paper 9/56 year Cycles: Earthquakes & Volcanoes.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) listed 15 major quakes on the island of Hawaii (see Table A this appendix). Of this figure, 8 took place in the 11 months ended August  22 of those years in Table B this appendix, whereas one would expect 1.5 by chance. 

Additionally, 6 Hawaiian quakes occurred in the 5 months ending August 22 of those years in the 56 year sequences in Table B. This compared with the 0.7 that would have arisen by coincidence. The record quake for Hawaii (April 2, 1868) also fell within these 6 sequences.

A 9/56 year effect was also apparent in the timing of the beginnings of Hawaiian volcanic eruptions (David McMinn).

Seasonality

Hawaiian earthquakes in Table B tended to cluster into certain months of the year. 

Month to April 22
March 28, 1868
April 2, 1868
April 22, 1868

Month to October 15 of the previous year.
September 25, 1941
October 15, 2007

Two Days to June 27
June 27, 1989
June 25, 1989

The earthquake of August 21, 1951 did not align with any other major quake. 

Californian Similarities

The 9/56 year pattern, that was most significant for Hawaii, was very similar to the comparable seismic patterns noted for California/Nevada/Baja California. Of the total 27 events listed since 1800, 9 major quakes in California – Nevada – Baja California happened in only four 56 year sequences (Sqs 34, 43, 52 & 05) (see Table C), where as 1.9 may have been expected by chance. Even more remarkably, 7 earthquakes (mag => 7.0) took place in the three months October to December in the four sequences, where as a mere 0.5 could arise from random factors.

Importantly, three 56 year sequences in Table C (Sqs 34, 43 & 52) also experienced numerous record events.
*          Sq 52 - Record quake for Hawaii (mag 7.9. April 2, 1868).
*          Sq 34 - The biggest northern Californian quake (San Francisco. mag 8.25. April 18, 1906).
*          Sq 43 - Record quake for Nevada (Pleasant Valley. mag 7.7. Oct 3, 1915). 
*          Sq 43 - Record quake for Baja California (Volcano Lake. mag 7.1. Nov 21, 1915).
*            Sq 34 - The two equal record quakes for New Mexico (Sorocco. mag 5.8. July 16, 1906, Sorocco. mag 5.8. November 15, 1906.)      
*          Sq 52 - Record quake for western USA. (Great Cascadia. mag 9.0. Jan 26, 1700)
*          Sq 52 - Record historic volcanic eruption in the western states (Mt St Helens, May 18, 1980).

The record quake for Arizona is debatable. The Arizona Earthquake Information Center gave  the Lockett Tanks quake as being of mag 6.2 (January 1, 1906), which was equal first rank of the state's biggest earthquakes. Even so, USGS considered the Fredonia event (mag 5.5. July 21, 1959) to be the record quake. 

Of the total 65 Japanese earthquakes listed in Table B, Appendix 13, 13 occurred in only 6 of the 56 year sequences (Sqs 16, 25, 34, 43, 52 & 05), while 7.0 could have been expected by chance (marginally significant p < .05). Additionally, 8 occurred in the three months - January to March - compared with the 1.7 that may have been expected. From history, there have been four Japanese earthquakes with a record magnitude of 8.7, of which one happened in these 6 56 year sequences - (August 5, 1897).