9/56 YEAR CYCLE: WORLD MEGA QUAKES

David McMinn

Moon Sun Finance


Introduction

The devastating 2011 Japanese mega quake was one of the top 6 earthquakes recorded worldwide (mag ≥ 8.8) since 1870. The timing of such key events needed to be considered in in terms of cycles, which may offer clues as to what activates these catastrophic episodes. Mega quakes were therefore considered in relation to the 9/56 year grid. This cycle was first linked to major US and Western European financial panics (McMinn, 1986, 1993, 1996, 2002) and then extrapolated to major earthquakes (McMinn, 2011a, 2011b, 2011d), Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes (McMinn, 2011c) and volcanic eruptions (McMinn, 2011d, 2012). Firm correlates could be produced with the 9/56 year grid, after assessing historic catalogs in each of the respective disciplines. The 9/56 year grid can be intimately linked with Moon Sun cycles, as several lunisolar cycles aligned very closely at 9.0 and 56.0 solar years (Appendix 5, McMinn, 2011a). Moon Sun tidal harmonics were therefore hypothesised to activate critical events that clustered within 9/56 year patterns.

The 9/56 year cycle consists of a grid with intervals of 56 years on the vertical (called sequences) and multiples of 9 years on the horizontal (called subcycles). The 56 year sequences have been numbered in accordance with McMinn (1993), with 1817, 1873, 1929, 1985 being designated as Sequence 01; 1818, 1874, 1930, 1986 as Sequence 02 and so forth. McMinn (Appendix 2, 2002) presented the full numbering. In Table 2, the year of best fit was taken as the year ending June 10. The database of the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) was accessed to produce a listing of world mega quakes (mag ≥ 8.6) since 1870 (see Appendix 1).

54/56 Year Seismic Grids
Since 1870, the timing of world mega quakes (mag 8.6) was closely linked to the two 54/56 year grids in Table 1. These contained all of the 6 biggest events (mag ≥ 8.8) and 14 of the top 17 quakes (mag ≥ 8.6). The 54/56 year grid was first established for financial panics (see Appendix 2) and then extrapolated to world mega quakes. 

Table 1
54/56 YEAR CYCLE: WORLD MEGA QUAKES
NGDC Post 1870 mag ≥ 8.6

Grid A
7.5 months ending March 31

Sq 29

Sq 27

Sq 25

Sq 23

Sq 21

 

 

 

 

 

1893

 

 

 

 

1895

1949

 

 

 

1897

1951
1950
Aug15

2005
Mar28
2004
Dec26

 

 

1899

1953
1952
Nov04

2007

 

 

1901

1955

2009

 

 

 

1957
Mar09

2011
Mar11

 

 

 

 

2013

 

 

 

 

 

Grid B
9 months ending June 10

Sq 36

Sq 34

Sq 32

Sq 30

Sq 28

Sq 26

 

 

 

 

 

1898
Jun05
1897
Sep20
1897
Sep21

 

 

 

 

1900

1954

 

 

 

1902

1956

2010
Feb27

 

 

1904

1958

2012
Apr11

 

 

1906
Jan31

1960
May22

2014

 

 

1908

1962

2016

 

 

 

1964
Mar28

2018

 

 

 

 

2020

 

 

 

 

 

The 56 year sequences are separated by an interval of 54 years.
World mega quake events mag ≥ 8.6 highlighted in red.

Source of Raw Data: National Geophysical Data Center.
Source:
McMinn, 2011b.


The two 54/56 year patterns in Table 1 can be combined to produce a grid repeating 9, 45, 9, 45… on the horizontal and 56 year intervals on the vertical (denoted as a 9-45/56 year cycle). Table 2 comprised 25% of the complete 9/56 year grid, yet it contained 14 of the top 17 major quakes (mag 8.8), whereas about 4.3 could have been expected by chance.

Table 2
9-45/56 YEAR CYCLE: WORLD MEGA QUAKES SINCE 1870 mag 8.6
Year ending June 10

Sq 29

 

Sq 38

 

Sq 27

 

Sq 36

 

Sq 25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1897

 

 

 

 

1899

+ 9

1908

+ 45

1953
1952
Nov04

1901

+ 9

1910

+ 45

1955

+ 9

1964
Mar28

+ 45

2009

1957
Mar09

+ 9

1966

+ 45

2011
Mar11

+ 9

2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sq 34

 

Sq 23

 

Sq 32

 

Sq 21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1893

+ 9

 

 

 

 

 

1904

+ 45

1949

+ 9

+ 9

1906
Jan31

+ 45

1951
1950
Aug15

+ 9

1960
May22

+ 45

2005
Mar28
2004
Dec26

+ 9

+ 9

1962

+ 45

2007

+ 9

2016

 

 

 

+ 9

2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sq 30

 

Sq 19

 

Sq 28

 

Sq 17

 

Sq 26

 

 

 

 

 

 

1889

+ 9

1898
Jun05
1897
Sep20
1897
Sep21

 

 

1891

+ 9

1900

+ 45

1945

+ 9

1954

1902

+ 45

1947

+ 9

1956

+ 45

2001

+ 9

2010
Feb27

1958

+ 45

2003

+ 9

2012
Apr11

 

 

 

 

2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Events in red were among the top 17 quakes (mag ≥ 8.6) recorded since 1870.
Source of Raw Data: National Geophysical Data Center.
Source: McMinn, 2011b.


54/56 year grids arise for major earthquakes in Japan – Kamchatka, as well as Alaska (McMinn, 2014). Interestingly, these overlapped with the grids presented in Tables 1 & 2 for world mega quakes.

Pre 1870 Experience
The 56 year sequences in Table 1 do not extend back into the pre 1870 era. The only notable exception was Sequence 27 in Grid A, which experienced numerous major quakes (mag ≥ 8.3) over recent centuries (see Table 3). Remarkably these tended to repeat in the same regions with two events in Oaxaca (Mexico) and three in northern Japan. Additionally, five of the events happened in the 2.5 months to March 31. 
 

Table 3
MAJOR WORLD EARTHQUAKES IN SEQUENCE 27 mag ≥ 8.3
Year ending March 31
Sq 27 Date  Mag Location
1619 Feb 14, 1619 8.6 Peru: Trujillo
1675 No Event
1731 Jul 08, 1730 8.7 Chile: Valparaiso
1787 Mar 28, 1787 8.3 Mexico: San Marcos, Oaxaca
1843 Feb 08, 1843 8.3
8.4
Guadeloupe: Pointe-A-Pitre
Japan: Hokkaido
1899 Jan 24, 1899
Jun 05, 1898
8.4
8.7
Mexico: Guerrero-Oaxaca
Japan: Offshore Honshu
1955 No Event
2011 Mar 11, 2011 8.9 Japan: Offshore north east Honshu

Events in red recorded mag 8.6.
Source of Raw Data: National Geophysical Data Center


Sequence 52
was another important series in early seismic history, because it experienced many records in the USA and Western Europe (see Table 4). However, it could not be linked to 20th century seismic trends in Tables 1 & 2. In 1700, 1756 and 1812, the earthquakes all took place in the five months to March 31. The Mount St Helens eruption happened on May 18, 1980 and was the biggest US volcanic event to take place in the contiguous 48 states. 

Table 4
RECORD WORLD QUAKES IN SEQUENCE 52
Year ending August 15

Sequence 52

Mag

Event

Record

Jan 26, 1700

9.0

Great Cascadia

Record for western USA (ex-Alaska)

Nov 01, 1755
Nov 18, 1755
Feb 18, 1756

8.7
6.3
6.3

Great Lisbon quake Boston quake
Duren quake

Record for Western Europe
Record for north east USA
Record German quake

Feb 12, 1812
Mar 26, 1812

7.9
7.7

New Madrid quake
Caracas quake

Record for eastern USA
Record for Venezuela

Apr 03, 1868
Aug 13, 1868

7.9
9.0

Hawaii
Great Arica quake

Record Hawaiian quake
19th century record for South America 

Sep 01, 1923

8.4

Tokyo quake

The 3rd rank 20th century quake for Japan.

May 18, 1980

na

Mt St Helens eruption

Record US eruption (ex Alaska)

Events denoted in red recorded mag ≥ 8.6.
Source: McMinn, 2006.


Conclusions
World mega quakes tended to cluster in grids based on 54/56 years and 9-45/56 years. Since 1870, most major earthquakes (mag ≥ 8.6) occurred within the layouts presented in Tables 1 & 2. Such grids did not apply to the timing of lesser seismic events (mag ≤ 8.5) or to massive world earthquakes pre 1870. The obvious question arises as to what activates this cycle? Moon Sun tidal harmonics have been hypothesized to active critical events within 9/56 year patterns (McMinn, 2011a). Why the world’s biggest seismic episodes appeared in the very neat grids based on 54 and 56 years remained unknown. Hopefully other researchers will be able to solve the puzzle. This would allow accurate forecasting of windows when major earthquakes were most likely to happen and thus save many lives. The answer lies in Moon Sun cycles but that is all that can be stated with any certainty.      


References

McMinn, David. 1986, The 56 Year Cycles & Financial Crises. 15th Conference of Economists. The Economics Society of Australia. Monash University, Melbourne. 18p. Aug 25-29.
McMinn, David. 1993. Financial Crises & The Number 56. The Australian Technical Analysts Association Newsletter. p 21-25. September.
McMinn, David. 1996. Financial Crises & The Number 56. Cycles. The Foundation For The Study of Cycles. p 11-17. Vol 46, No 1. August.
McMinn, David. 2002. 9/56 Year Cycle: Financial Crises.
http://www.davidmcminn.com/pages/fcnum56.htm
McMinn, David. 2006. Market Timing by The Moon & The Sun. Twin Palms Publishing. 163p.
McMinn, David.
2011a. 9/56 Year Cycle: Californian Earthquakes. New Concepts In Global Tectonics Newsletter. No 58. p 33-44. March.
McMinn, David. 2011b. 9/56 Year Cycle: Record Earthquakes. New Concepts In Global Tectonics Newsletter. No 59. p 88-104. June.
McMinn, David. 2011c, 9/56 Year Cycle: Hurricanes. New Concepts In Global Tectonics Newsletter. No 59. p 105-111. June.
McMinn, David.
2011d. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in Selected Countries. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter. No 60. p 9-37. September.
McMinn, David. 2012. 9/56 Year Cycle: World Mega Volcanic Eruptions. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter. No 64. p 7-18. September.
McMinn, David.
2014. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in Japan, Kamchatka and Alaska. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal. V 2 No 1. p 4 -13. March.

Appendix 1
WORLD MEGA QUAKES: 1870–2013 Mag ≥ 8.6
National Geophysical Data Center

Date

Country

Mag

1897 Sep 20

Philippines: North west Mindanao, Dapitan

8.6

1897 Sep 21

Philippines: Mindanao, Zamboanga, Sulu

8.7

1898 Jun 05

Japan: Offshore east coast Honshu

8.7

1906 Jan 31

Ecuador: Offshore

8.6

1922 Nov 11

Chile: Atacama

8.7

1946 Apr 01

Alaska: Unimak Island

8.6

1950 Aug 15

India-China

8.6

1952 Nov 04

Russia: Kamchatka

9.0

1957 Mar 09

Alaska

8.6

1960 May 22

Chile: Puerto Montt, Valdiva

9.5

1964 Mar 28

Alaska

9.2

1965 Feb 04

Alaska: Aleutian Islands, Rat Islands

8.7

2004 Dec 26

Indonesia: Offshore west coast Sumatra

9.1

2005 Mar 28

Indonesia: South west Sumatra

8.6

2010 Feb 27

Chile: Maule, Concepcion, Talcahuano

8.8

2011 Mar 11

Japan: Offshore north east Honshu

9.0

2012 Apr11

Indonesia: Offshore north west coast Sumatra

8.6

In Grids A & B, the 56 year sequences are separated by intervals of 54 years on the horizontal.
World mega quakes mag ≥ 8.6 falling in Grids A and B are highlighted in red.
The NGDC listed some 17 world mega quakes (mag ≥ 8.6) since 1880, of which 14 showed up in the two grids in Table 2. This compared with an expected 4.25.

Source of Raw Data: National Geophysical Data Center.
Source:
McMinn, 2011b.

 

Appendix 2
54/56 YEAR CYCLE:
MAJOR US & WESTERN EUROPEAN FINANCIAL CRISES Post 1810
Year beginning March 1

Grid A

Sq 11

Sq 09

Sq 07

Sq 05

Sq 03

Sq 01

Sq 55

 

 

 

 

 

 

1815

 

 

 

 

 

1817

1871

 

 

 
 

1819

1873

1927

 

 
 
1821

1875

1929

1983

 

 
1823
1877

1931

1985

 

 

1825
1879
1933

1987

 

 

1827

1881
1935
1989

 

 

 

1883

1937
1991
 

 

 

 

1939

1993

              
 

 

 

 

1995

 

 

 

 

 

 

Grid B

Sq 04

Sq 02

Sq 56

Sq 54

Sq 52

Sq 50

Sq 48

 

 

 

 

 

 

1808

 

 

 

 

 

1810

1864

 

 

 

 

1812

1866
1920

 

 

 

1814

1868

1922
1976

 

 

1816

1870

1924

1878
 

 

1818

1872

1926

1980

 
 

1820

1874

1928

1982

 

 
 

1876

1930

1984

 

 


              
 

1932

1986

 

 

 

 

 

1988

 

 

 

 

 

 

NB: The 56 year vertical columns are separated by intervals of 54 years on the horizontal.
Years in bold experienced major financial crises as listed by Kindleberger (Appendix B, 1996).
Of the 25 major financial crises listed by Kindleberger (Appendix B, 1996) for the 1810-1940 era, 15 appeared in the two 54/56 year grids (significant p < .001).
Source: McMinn, 1993.

 

Appendix 3     MOON-SUN BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Apogee  
Apogee is the point in the lunar orbit, where the Moon is the greatest distance from Earth, while perigee is the least distance. In the lunar apse cycle, the apogee – perigee axis (apsides) rotates counter clockwise around the ecliptical circle, with apogee completing one cycle from spring equinox to spring equinox every 8.8474 tropical years. The apsides axis is very important in oceanic tides on Earth. When the full/new Moon is at apogee, the amplitude of tides in New York Harbor is 50% lower than when the full/new Moon is at perigee. Apogee could be expected to play a key role in any Moon-Sun seismic effect.      

9.0 divided by the 8.8474 year apse cycle yielded 1.02, while 56.0 divided by the apse cycle gave 6.33 (6 plus one third). Thus, every 9.0 years in the 9/56 year grid, apogee will be sited about 6 degrees further anticlockwise on the ecliptical circle. Every 56.0 years, apogee will be located 120 degrees further anticlockwise on the ecliptical circle. For events occurring at around the same time of year, apogee will therefore always located in three segments approximately 120 degrees apart on the ecliptical circle WITH NO EXCEPTIONS. For example, Table A gives the apogee position on July 1 of those years in a 9/56 year grid. Apogee is always located in the following three segments 120 degrees apart 335 – 015 Eo; 095 – 135 Eo and 215 – 250 Eo with no exceptions.

Table A
9/56 YEAR CYCLE & THE POSITION OF APOGEE
Ecliptical Degree of Apogee on July 1

Sq 32

Sq 41

Sq 50

Sq 03

Sq 12

Sq 21

 

 

 

1763
000

1772
007

1781
013

1792
100

1801
106

1810
113

1819
119

1828
126

1837
131

1848
219

1857
225

1866
231

1875
237

1884
244

1893
250

1904
337

1913
344

1922
350

1931
356

1940
002

1949
008

1960
096

1969
102

1978
108

1987
115

1996
121

2005
127

The 56 year sequences are separated by an interval of 9 years.


Apogee takes 5.995 tropical years to complete one cycle ascending node to ascending node. The 18.0 year Saros eclipse cycle divided by 6 produced the integral number three and the 9 year Half Saros divided by 6 gave 1.5 (one plus a half). The 56 year cycle divided by 6 gave 9.3333 tropical years (9 plus one third). Thus the angle between
the ascending node and apogee oscillates by about 180 degrees every 9.0 years and by about 120 degrees every 56.0 years. This is illustrated on the same date in Table B, which gives ascending node – apogee angles grouping 60o apart in the angular circle with no exceptions.

Table B
9/56 YEAR CYCLE: ANGLE BETWEEN THE ASCENDING NODE & APOGEE
Angle btn Ascending Node and Apogee on July 1

Sq 32

Sq 41

Sq 50

Sq 03

Sq 12

Sq 21

 

 

 

1763
341

1772
162

1781
342

1792
282

1801
102

1810
283

1819
103

1828
283

1837
103

1848
044

1857
224

1866
044

1875
224

1884
046

1893
225

1904
165

1913
346

1922
166

1931
346

1940
168

1949
346

1960
287

1969
107

1978
287

1987
108

1996
288

2005
108

The 56 year sequences are separated by an interval of 9 years.


Equinoxes
These points are sited where the plane of the Earth’s equator projected out into the sky (celestial equator) cuts the plane of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun (ecliptic). At these points, the equatorial ascending node is where the Sun crosses the celestial equator from south to north the celestial equator at 0 E° (0 Aries - vernal or spring equinox at around 20 March). The equatorial descending node is where the Sun crosses the celestial equator from north to south at 180 E° (0 Libra - autumnal equinox at around 22 September).

Lunar Ascending Node      
The lunar nodes are imaginary points in the heavens, where the plane of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun (the ecliptic) is cut by the plane of the Moon’s orbit around the Earth.
The ascending (north) node is where the Moon crosses the ecliptic from south to north, where as the descending (south) node is where the Moon crosses from north to south. In the lunar nutation cycle, it takes 18.62 years for the ascending node to complete one cycle from spring equinox to spring equinox.    

Table C shows the ecliptical position of the lunar ascending node as on July 1 in a 9/56 year grid. This point is always found in two segments approximately 180 degrees apart in the ecliptical circle, WITH NO EXCEPTIONS.

Table C
9/56 YEAR CYCLE & THE POSITION OF THE ASCENDING NODE
Ecliptical Degree of Ascending Node on July 1

Sq 32

Sq 41

Sq 50

Sq 03

Sq 12

Sq 21

 

 

 

1763
019

1772
205

1781
031

1792
178

1801
004

1810
190

1819
016

1828
202

1837
028

1848
175

1857
001

1866
187

1875
013

1884
199

1893
025

1904
172

1913
358

1922
184

1931
010

1940
196

1949
022

1960
169

1969
355

1978
181

1987
007

1996
193

2005
019

The 56 year sequences are separated by an interval of 9 years.