David McMinn


Welcome to the world’s first web site to promote the Moon Sun hypothesis and the 9/56 year panic cycle found in US and Western European economic history.

Most major US financial panics fell in the 9/56 year cycle, including the upheavals of 1792, 1819, 1837, 1857, 1873, 1884, 1893, 1920, 1929, 1931, 1933, 1980, 1987 and 2007. Such trends, in turn, are firmly based on Moon Sun cycles, a finding that has been fully covered in my market timing books (see subsequently). Various new concepts are introduced which, for many readers, may take some time to digest. As one Hong Kong analyst commented, "on the first reading I thought what a load of rubbish. After the fourth reading I found the work very impressive".

This is a unique view of the business cycle, which hopefully you will find both informative and penetrating.

Two books on market timing are available via this web site. A third book is currently being completed and will be the last in the series. I have spent years studying the Moon Sun hypothesis and it is time to explore my other interests. 

The following papers are presented for your interest
to give you an outline of the 9/56 year cycle and the Moon Sun hypothesis.

Corrections and research suggestions most appreciated.

The 9/56 Year Cycle - Finance

Financial Crises & The Number 56

The Moon, The Sun & The Number 56

The 9/56 Year Cycle - Earthquakes 

9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes & Volcanoes
 
9/56 Year Earthquake Cycles: California

9/56 Year Earthquake Cycles: Alaska

9/56 Year Volcanic Cycles: Hawaii & Alaska

9/56 Year Cycle: Record US Earthquakes
 

Moon Sun Influences In Financial Activity

The Great Crash of 2008 

Moon Sun Charts Courtesy Ron McEwan

2007: US Bear Market?

Moon - Sun Parallels: The Great Panics of 1929 & 1987

The Benner Cycle, The Fibonaccis & The Number 56 


Astrology

The 20 Year Death Cycle of US Presidents

Numerology

Names & Electoral Success

Economics

Inefficient vs Efficient Market Hypothesis?

Moon Sun Finance: A New Paradigm?

Planned Obsolescence: The Ultimate Economic Inefficiency

Additional References On Moon Sun Finance

Man & Cosmos. A Theory of Endeavor Rhythms
Clifford Charles Matlock
Development Cycles Research Project. 1977

Are Investors Moonstruck? Lunar Phase & Stock Returns
Kathy Yuan et al. University of Michigan. 2001

Lunar Cycle Effects In Stock Returns
Ilia Dichev & Troy James. University of Michigan. 2001


Other Influences In The Stock Market

Sunny Day Effect
Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns & Weather
David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway. University of Michigan. 2001

Seasonal Affective Disorder
Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle
Mark Kamstra, Lisa Kramer & Maurice Levi. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
American Economic Review. 2003. March, 93 (1), 324-343.

Geomagnetic Storms
Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms & International Stock Markets
Anna Krivelyova & Cesare Robotti. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. 2003

Daylight Savings Anomaly
Losing Sleep At The Market: Daylight Savings Anomaly
Mark Kamstra, Lisa Kramer & Maurice Levi.
American Economic Review. 2000. 90 (4), Sept, 1005-1011.

Temperature
Stock Market Returns: A note on temperature anomaly.
Cao, Melanie & Wei, Jason. 
Journal of Banking and Finance. 29 (2005). 1559 - 1573.

Moon - Sun Influences & Earthquakes

Planetary Configuration: Implications For Earthquake Prediction
N Venkatanathan, N Rajeshwara Rao et al. 2004 
Department of Applied Geology, University of Madras

Tidal Effects on Tectonic Events
Jeremy D Pesicek. 
Department of Physics & Physical Oceanography. University of North Carolina


THE MOON SUN HYPOTHESIS - BACKGROUND

In 1984, I read with great interest David Williams’ book Financial Astrology. It proved highly stimulating and set me on a course of studying the business cycle. After much research, Williams’ work was found to be invalid. Although fascinating, the larger planets in the solar system could not be correlated with the timing of major financial crises or the business cycle generally. Thus, Williams' findings were negated as having any practical use in market forecasting. However, what did stand out was his coverage of J M Funk’s 56 year panic cycle. This consisted of three sequences, in which major US financial crises happened every 56 years. In the 100 years to 1930, these three sequences contained 6 years, in which occurred five of the worst panics in US economic history. Truly amazing! Ensuing assessments found that financial distress occurred quite regularly in patterns based on multiples of 9 and 56 years. 

Although a 9/56 year panic cycle was clearly evident, a causal factor precipitating this repetitive cycle could not be readily established. Major crashes and panics took place every 56 years - but why???? Traditional astrology was the initial area favoured, but it offered no satisfaction. No relationships could be proven between the planets and the 9/56 year panic cycle. Numerous other traditional factors were considered, such as sunspots and eclipses (as distinct from eclipse cycles), but these were equally unsuccessful. Finally, I noticed that, on the same date every 56 years, the Moon’s north node was sited only three degrees further clockwise on the ecliptical circle. This was very intriguing and ultimately proved to be a gold mine for further analysis. Follow up research established numerous Moon Sun correlates with both the 9/56 year cycle and major financial upheavals.

The mass mood of a population is postulated to oscillate between optimism (a rising market) and fear (a falling market) in accordance with Moon Sun cycles. The crisis occurs when there is a sudden shift in sentiment from greed to fear. How these cycles actually function remains a great unknown. This was very frustrating and I feel my efforts have been only partly successful. Hopefully, other cycle enthusiasts will take up the challenge where I have left off. If I had been able to unravel the 9/56 year cycle completely, the market timing books would never have been published. Having this vital information would be a license to print money through market speculation and fame as an investment guru. 

How well the 9/56 year panic cycle hypothesis holds up to the test of time remains to be seen. It needs to be assessed by others in further studies and thereby vindicated or negated. It will be very interesting to see the outcome of this process. Given the radical nature of the 9/56 year cycle, conservative elements in economics and the sciences will denigrate or simply ignore this theory, regardless of its intrinsic worth. So be it. Such responses are always evident in the face of radical theories that contradict the dominant paradigms. Alas, conservatives are always slow learners. By definition, they cannot cope with new ideas, not even good new ideas. 

My work on Moon Sun cycles have been published by the following organisations:

*     Australian Technical Analysts Association.

*     Society of Technical Analysts (UK).

*    Technical Securities Analysts Association (USA).

*    The Foundation For The Study Of Cycles (USA).

*    American Federation of Astrologers (USA).

*    Federation of Australian Astrologers. 

*    The International Society for Astrological Research (USA).

*    Centre Universitaire de Recherche en Astrologie (France).

"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act". — George Orwell